Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[bracke] 20/5/2019 17:51

"bracke will probably think I’m copying him, I’m not!, honest guv."
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Yeah right.

[ianwwwhite] 20/5/2019 17:44

DD,

You're welcome.

I wouldn't like to explain how my guess was arrived at, 'finger in the air' probably best sums it up!

[discodave4] 20/5/2019 17:38

Thanks Ian.bracke will probably think I'm copying him, I'm not!, honest guv.Just upped last years by 20% and interim was up c 19% so a 20% uplift seems odds on (33 x 1.2 = 39.6, so hence my total of 40p for the year).

[ianwwwhite] 20/5/2019 17:35

Ashtead results for the year ending 30th Apr are due to be announced on 18th June.

So far we have the following estimates for the final dividend: (2018 27.5p):

DD. 33.5p
Ian. 35p
mjcf: 33p
bracke: 33.5p
(updated 20/5/19)

If you would like to join in, please copy and paste this post, after adding your own estimate. No prizes for the best guess, just the appreciation and admiration of your fellow posters!

[ianwwwhite] 20/5/2019 17:34

Hi DD,

The competition was intended to relate to the final dividend, and you are free to amend and re-post up until the eve of the announcement.

I have made the appropriate adjustment.

[discodave4] 20/5/2019 17:25

Please can we confirm the dividend forecast, i was referring to total for the year of 40p, so a final div of 33.5 (40 minus 6.5).Sorry only just thought given everyone is a lot lower than me!.

[ianwwwhite] 20/5/2019 17:24

bracke

I'd rather you didn't!!!

[bracke] 20/5/2019 17:22

ian

At times I have very mixed thoughts about you!!

[ianwwwhite] 20/5/2019 16:55

Good afternoon bracke,

Good to see you are entering into the spirit of the competition!

But re: 'I don't remember much appreciation and admiration when I was correct last time' - I seem to remember that you were only a joint winner, and the other winner got loads of congratulations!

Finally I don't imagine the Board gives a stuff about the anti-buybackers who were a tiny minority when the buyback resolution was passed, I certainly don't :-)

[bracke] 20/5/2019 14:59

Good day ian

Should be 40p if the buyback cash had been returned to the shareholders. However if the Board want to quieten the anti-buybackers as I'm sure they want to (hope they are reading this) a few measly pence will not do.

DD. 40p
Ian. 35p
mjcf: 33p
bracke: 33.5p
(updated 20/5/19)

"No prizes for the best guess, just the appreciation and admiration of your fellow posters!"
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I don't remember much appreciation and admiration when I was correct last time.

[ianwwwhite] 20/5/2019 14:07

G'day all,

re bracke: Buyback AND a hike in dividend!! Is there no end to this avarice!!
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I don't think they are mutually exclusive ..

re MJCF: 33p dividend reflects 20% increase in profits
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Can I assume that 33p is your entry for the guess the dividend comp? I have amended the entries to date, happy to correct this if this is not the case

bracke, as a winner of the previous competition I am sure you will want to enter again?

[discodave4] 20/5/2019 12:47

It did last year.

[mjcferguson] 20/5/2019 12:34

33p dividend reflects 20% increase in profits.

[discodave4] 20/5/2019 11:39

Morning bracke,"Buyback AND a hike in dividend!! Is there no end to this avarice!!"Doubt very much you are suggesting they cut the dividend! :)How much dividend?

[bracke] 20/5/2019 10:31

"I am looking forward to a hike in the dividend as well - any guesses anyone?"
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Buyback AND a hike in dividend!! Is there no end to this avarice!!

If the tariff talks fail we will be lucky to keep our shirts!!

[discodave4] 18/5/2019 11:00

Thanks Ian, I was being lazy!.

[ianwwwhite] 18/5/2019 07:17

Ashtead results for the year ending 30th Apr are due to be announced on 18th June.

So far we have the following estimates for the final dividend: (2018 27.5p):

DD. 40p
Ian. 35p
mjcf: 33p
bracke: tba
(updated 20/5/19)

If you would like to join in, please copy and paste this post, after adding your own estimate. No prizes for the best guess, just the appreciation and admiration of your fellow posters!

[ianwwwhite] 17/5/2019 20:33

DD,

Lol! You have a great weekend too! :-)
.

[discodave4] 17/5/2019 20:11

Ssssshhhh! :)Yep not too bad thanks.Anymore advances: 35p, 40p?Have a good weekend, let's hope they have ripped out the Tango mans wifi router from the big White House!.

[ianwwwhite] 17/5/2019 20:04

Hi DD,

Apologies for the recent posts, but my attempt to help fenners by pointing out the Aviva buyback which bracke omitted to mention, and mention of the subsequent shortfall between Aviva average buynback purchase price and current market price has prompted fenners to resurrect the old arguments about buybacks in general ..... I wish I had never bothered!!!

Apart from that things are going well, the recent fall in the pound has helped a number of other investments so things are looking rosy!

I trust things are going well with yourself?

My guess is 35p, very much a finger in the air estimate!

[discodave4] 17/5/2019 19:25

Hi Ian, hope all is well.Will go for 40p.DD

[ianwwwhite] 17/5/2019 18:40

........... and answer there was none! Surprised? Not really....

I think it is time to move on, it's clear fenners and I will not agree on this, he will assert his right to carry on posting what he likes, irrespective of the facts, and in turn I will be happy to filter future contributors that seek to carry on this AHT buyback argument in this scatter-gun manner...

It's time to turn to more important matters, Q4 results are due to be announced on 18th June, for the year ended 30th Apr 19, and although I have enjoyed a considerable appreciation in share price and return (+20% total return p.a) over the last 20 years, I am looking forward to a hike in the dividend as well - any guesses anyone?

[ianwwwhite] 17/5/2019 10:46

fenners,
I am concerned to see that you stayed up after midnight to compose your latest reply, hopefully not for my sake.

I find there is little that is relevant in this latest posting other than the first paragraph when considering the AHT buyback program specifically.

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Re: ‘No the answer would be advocate change to that policy’
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With this we are in agreement, but posting on a bulletin board hoping to influence policy is never going to work.

If you are objective and really want to make your views known, as a number of posters have suggested in the past, then you would achieve more success by taking a more direct route and writing to the Chief Exec.

Perhaps you have already done this? Others have done it in the past and shared their response. Perhaps you could do the same?
.

[fenners66] 17/5/2019 00:38

ian - thats like saying if you don't like one of a political parties policies don't vote for them.... even if you like all of the others.
No the answer would be advocate change to that policy.

"Fact 2; Aviva’s misfortune does not mean all buybacks are bad, and the case cannot be made using just this one example"

But it does mean you have provided a very good example of why they are.
Share prices go up and down.
Share prices go up on days when there is more demand than supply.
Share prices go down when there is more supply than demand.

If the only sizeable demand comes from a company doing a buyback and that exceeds supply, price can go up.
But when that buyback ends it no longer has a material effect on the share price and very often the result of an artificial higher closing price after buyback, it stimulates supply followed by a fall.


After all what criteria do investors use for buying shares ?
Prospect of rising profits, rising dividends and therefore rising share price so as to make a gain or gain future dividend income - all to be weighed carefully against the opportunities elsewhere.

The same criteria are not used for a buyback.
For a start there are no alternative shares to compare to , the "investment" is limited to one share.
The shares are most likely to be cancelled so there are no future returns to worry about.

The EPS calculation (all things being equal) means a higher EPS - which often rewards directors through their bonus schemes (they think that is a no brainer).

What is the point of a buyback then ?
To artificially inflate the share price - but if its artificial it invariably comes down again.
It removes cash from the balance sheet / adds debt.

There must be stats available on what has happened to share prices post buyback - adjusting for real increases in future profits . That would tell a story.

[ianwwwhite] 16/5/2019 19:41

fenners

Re:
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"Aviva share buyback programme, acquiring 119,491,188 shares at an average price of £5.02 - Aviva share price today? 417p "

So you are saying they blew at least £101m overpaying for their own stock.
You make a very convincing case for not doing buybacks!
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As often happens on these boards fenners, you are confusing rhetoric with reality.

Fact 1: Aviva’s share price decline has resulted in a notional loss against the price the shares could have been purchased in the market yesterday of <>£101m as I pointed out

Fact 2; Aviva’s misfortune does not mean all buybacks are bad, and the case cannot be made using just this one example

Fact 3: In AHT’s case the figures currently indicate that the average price paid for buyback shares is less than the current market price – a notional profit, but my preference is to assess the benefits of the exercise once it has been completed in its entirety. (If you consider this data critical dyor!)

Obviously, as has been said before, if you don't like the AHT buyback scheme, don't invest would seem to be the answer...