Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[bracke] 11/9/2018 13:51

Fair comment and targeting is only a target not a given.

I agree economic activity will not stop but it could be severely curtailed.

[fenners66] 11/9/2018 13:43

I would guess that the directors would say they cannot control the stock market and the share prices - however they can manage the business and let the share price take care of itself.

So the devise a strategy and just implement it....

Economic activity in the US will not stop if the market falls - after all the market has risen a long way so its only paper profit for many.

[bracke] 11/9/2018 13:28

Good day fenners


My query was: irrespective of market share, organic growth, acquisitions, etc would double digit growth be achievable if the S&P fell 20%.

Acquisitions are a moot point. Buying others may maintain double digit growth but at a cost which could affect the share price adversely.

[fenners66] 11/9/2018 13:00

bracke are you confusing 20% share price falls with AHT capturing market share , organic growth in the market and bolt on acquisitions to get to double digit revenue growth ?

[bracke] 11/9/2018 12:38

The first sentence of the H-L Report begs a question.

"Ashtead is targeting annual double-digit revenue growth through to 2021"

The US markets are due a 20% decline. It seems a fair probability that it will occur during the next couple of years. If/when it does what does that do to the double-digit target?

[fenners66] 11/9/2018 12:26

At last someone shares my view on the debt / buybacks

[fenners66] 11/9/2018 12:14

"Progressive dividend policy maintained" - Not progressive enough !

[fenners66] 11/9/2018 12:12

UK utilisation chart is worse - that's just sloppy letting accountants present charts - they know the figures so they do not pay attention to presentation.

[discodave4] 11/9/2018 12:10

H&L View:HTTPS://www.hl.co.uk/shares/share-research/201809/ashtead-profits-soar-as-revenues-jump-and-taxes-slumpDD

[fenners66] 11/9/2018 12:08

Whoever prepared the physical utilisation chart - needs a refresher course.

Scale is 40% to 80%

but all the lines are in the range 60 to 75% - I can't see them clearly because the chart is all empty space and tiny lines.

If that chart serves any purpose narrow the range so we can see what is happening !

[fenners66] 11/9/2018 12:05

Moodys Baa3
Fitch BBB-

Net Debt up £464m with £300m spent on share buybacks.

All because the ratio of EBITDA to net debt is within the boundary of 1.5 - 2

You know what I don't care about a bankers covenant test ratio of less than 2 being good.
I care about having £300m lower debt that would save £3m a quarter in interest (about 2.4p year EPS)
Which would by definition bring the ratio down
Which ought to improve the rating agencies view
That may reduce the coupon on the next refinancing.

That means the business is less exposed to any future market shocks.

Add another £600m of buybacks and we save £9m a quarter instead.....

Before anyone says the yanks like the buybacks ....

They like driving 100 yards to McDonalds to load up on excessive junk food as well - does not make it right !

[ianwwwhite] 11/9/2018 11:59

Hi fenners

see my post 55688, session abandoned, fire alarm stopped play

[fenners66] 11/9/2018 11:52

Anybody managed to get the webcast to play?
I have found it but it will not start , I can move to another point in the webcast but have no audio only frozen panes ...

[2flatpack] 11/9/2018 11:33

morning bracke
Unfortunately not.
The spike was a little too quick for me, but more than happy to hold.
Great results congrats and thanks to Geoff and the team.
Chears

[bracke] 11/9/2018 10:10

Good day 2flat

Did you sell on the opening spike?

[ianwwwhite] 11/9/2018 08:50

Hi fenners

I had been watching the AHT webcast of the analysts presentation, but this has now been terminated due to a Fire Alarm (hopefully a false alarm) just as Geoff was getting into his stride!

Edit: The presentation slides are available at and well worth viewing

[fenners66] 11/9/2018 08:41

I have to remark since I have been involved here for so long ... despite AHT rising from worth very little all the way up to the FTSE100 this board is still fairly quiet does that reflect a lack of interest in AHT generally ?

[fenners66] 11/9/2018 08:39

Disco I can imagine it was an analyst who knew a bit about Ashtead and knew they are making the money in the states and then just assumed the numbers were $.

A little bit of knowledge being dangerous.

[fenners66] 11/9/2018 08:37

Bloomberg reporting Hurricane Florence set to be the strongest hurricane in 30 years to hit the Carolinas with 1 million evacuating.

Estimates range up to $27bn of likely damage.

Once again I hope everyone is safe - AHT will be there to help with the aftermath.

[discodave4] 11/9/2018 08:37

Think it was a typo £283m pbt, underlying £285.6m.

[fenners66] 11/9/2018 08:33

mind the gap.....

[ianwwwhite] 11/9/2018 08:13

Another stunning set of results.

Seems like the market likes them too - AHT currently up +97p at 2397p.

Well done Geoff and the A-team, thanks.

[discodave4] 11/9/2018 07:46

Look really good.Quick calcs I make it about 182p eps for year end, forecast is 164p. On a PE of 15 that's c £27.Increased and extended buyback not taken into account.DD