Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[fenners66] 20/7/2021 22:59

he's joking, borrowing money from one institution to pay off debts to another

[perfido] 20/7/2021 20:40

bracke

Ponzi operation?

Really?

[bracke] 19/7/2021 10:24

Good day fenners

It's a Ponzi operation. Legal for companies and governments. One law for them another law for the rest. Such is life.

[a77] 19/7/2021 08:58

Rescuer any idea what happened to Hatto?

[fenners66] 19/7/2021 07:23

You know how I get wound up by the "exceptional " cost of refinancing..

Here will be another example no doubt from Entain

"The proceeds of the New Loan will be used to refinance/repay the existing $774m USD First Lien Term Loan B, which is due to mature on 29 March 2024,"

Its a " $1,125m First Lien Term Loan B in USD ("the New Loan"), with maturity on 29 March 2027."

So they have added 3 years and some more debt, do they ever run to term....?

[trt] 16/7/2021 11:09

Topped up over the last few days got to take advantage of the dips.

[bracke] 14/7/2021 14:33

Good day fenners

Come now fenners, what's the odd zero between posters.......I think it should be 189,900%

[fenners66] 14/7/2021 13:04

bracke hate to say it but....

"bracke
14 Jul '21 - 11:45 - 59095 of 59096

Good day rescuer
March 2003 3p
July 2021 5700p

+1900% "

Is Wrong by 100x

The increase was actually 1900 x
or

190,000 %

[bracke] 14/7/2021 11:45

Good day rescuer

March 2003 3p

July 2021 5700p

+1900%

One of your better selections. Would have been even better if you had kept them.....

[fig1] 13/7/2021 16:39

Haven't heard from you for ages Rescuer.I remember that 3p tip!What are you in now? ?

[rescuer] 13/7/2021 13:59

just looked in after about 6 months - jeeze this has rocketed since March 2020.

well done to any long term holders still remaining, i tipped this at a mere 3p - and no i don't have any

hope you are all well

r

[trt] 13/7/2021 13:34

I would suggest it does as they need to maintain a percentage weighting in their funds. So the rise is self perpetuating and we should see £60 very soon indeed.

[fenners66] 13/7/2021 09:48

As the share price rises , does this now trigger a higher weighting from FTSE trackers? Thus adding some demand ?

[riley109] 13/7/2021 09:31

So much better than last week!

[bracke] 08/7/2021 13:05

Time for a chart.

Blue dashed = opening gaps.

Red dashed = 100 point levels.

Black dashed = price range.

Probable gap fill at 5416 and support at 5400

AHT HOURLY

[bracke] 08/7/2021 12:18

Just a thought.

If there was a threat of an unwelcome bid what would be the best to prevent it. I am aware of two methods.

1 A 'poison pill'




2 Take the share price up to a level so that a bid is uneconomic.

[trt] 08/7/2021 10:17

Grabbed a few more got to take advantage of the dips.

[perfido] 07/7/2021 17:57

bracke, fenners,

Thanks for your views .... & lots of food for thought!

[fenners66] 07/7/2021 16:49

I said (a few months ago now) that a bid of around £40 was far enough ahead of the share price to perhaps succeed.
I was basing that only on potential free cash flow, i.e. some private equity type vehicle borrows funds and uses the CF to repay , after a few years they have the business for nothing.

Seems like that opportunity has been missed.

Now my expectations for a premium on top of the current market price means any such bid would be very expensive.

I suggest AHT continue consolidating the US market and growing market share , revenue , profit and above all cash flow now. The share price has a lot baked in and a lot to live up to.

Stuff the buybacks , increase dividends and get to a 20% market share. If US infrastructure is as bad as they say then sooner or later there is going to have to be a lot of cash spent on it.....

[bracke] 07/7/2021 16:34

Good day perfido

"If algos were largely responsible for the rise to the current amazing heights, and this is not attributable to fundamentals, would you not now expect them to reverse the process and drive the price back down again?"
==============================================================================


We have seen the US market making all time highs despite a global pandemic which would usually send the markets to lows. Why has this been avoided. Trillions of $ and negligible interest rates. There is also the thought that the US market can't go down because the FED will step in to prevent it.

Until the FED reduce/mention the tapering of asset purchases the party continues. An interest rate increase hardly bears thinking about!

With such a 'hot market' the aim is to try and cool it gently that will be very difficult. Once the market gets an inkling of any cooling it's every man/women for him/her self. Children best run!

Back to your question:

A large part of the share price rise appears due to the expectation of vast sums of $ being spent on infrastructure. The Republicans are opposed to the sums that the Democrats are wanting.

Inflation is just waiting to pounce.

Accumulatio/distribution:

In the current market fundamentals don't appear to be playing much part. Major investors have got so much money and with interest rates so low shares are the only place to put it. Fundamentals are placed aside and some would say ridiculous valuations occur

In the normal run once holders decide to sell they will do so when they perceive that upward pressure on the share price is easing. They will then gradually sell in such a way as to minimize a fall in the share price Whether holders get that chance or have to wait for a retrace back up after the initial fall is a question of timing or perhaps risk tolerance.


Of course the clever ones are those who exit on time and then go short. The question is when!


"Perhaps that short will pay off after all? :-)"
================================================

You will be suggesting flying pigs next.

[perfido] 07/7/2021 15:59

Hi bracke

Thank you for your views.

If algos were largely responsible for the rise to the current amazing heights, and this is not attributable to fundamentals, would you not now expect them to reverse the process and drive the price back down again?

Perhaps that short will pay off after all? :-)

[trt] 07/7/2021 15:31

Point is re the stake building the potential is huge with AHT. Huge profits to be made in USA with brokers predicting profits rising year on year for the next 10 years. UK contracts are rising too adding to profits even further. Dividend will also increase year on year for any private and institutional investors. Still looking good for £60 level very soon with or without a bid.

[bracke] 07/7/2021 15:28

A further thought.

If algo share buying is driving the share price higher it is being buoyed up by a continuing 22,000 a day share buyback. An algo buyer is virtually guaranteed a buyer at a higher share price

[bracke] 07/7/2021 15:15

Stake building - Although I don't totally dismiss the thought there are three aspects that suggest not:

1 Since the start of the share price rise this year there has been no new declaration of a 5% holding (23.87 million shares).

2 If someone was accumulating prior to a bid they would not be driving the price up. They would buy in such a way as to keep the price lower.

3 If a bid is being considered they have not just great expectations but enormous expectations given the PE is 35.6. For comparison URI is 25.