Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[perfido] 22/4/2021 14:02

Hi bracke,

Different timescales I believe

The up to £1 billion commencing in May 21 is for the next two financial financial years, the £3 billion is for the whole period ending 2024 is my interpretation.

There are of course caveats as to affordability, so strategy is possibly aspirational rather than certainty, but gives a clue as to where the share price might be heading

Happy to be corrected if my interpretation is wide of the mark.

[bracke] 22/4/2021 13:06

I am confused.

The original rns stated an intention to buyback £1 billion worth of shares but the slide shows a buyback of 55 million shares at an average of £55 which is £3 billion.

What am I missing?

Confused Froggie

[perfido] 22/4/2021 10:50

I'm interested to note that the recent Sunbelt Capital Markets Day presentation slides are now available on AHT's site:

What caught my eye was slide #97, where the planning assumption used for the share buyback average price up to Full Year 2024 is assumed as £55 per share, which might indicate that management anticipate a continuing rise in the share price over the next few years?

Nevertheless I remain negative on the proposed buyback :-)

(No advice intended, DYOR)
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[perfido] 20/4/2021 18:55

bracke

lol!

For any of our newer readers, the last (1/1) script issue was 4th Nov 1997, shortly after my first AHT purchase!!

How time flys!
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[bracke] 20/4/2021 17:59

perfido

"I'm firmly on the 'no' side of the argument now."
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I didn't expect that but I understand your reasoning. One has to ask why is the board recommencing the buybacks given the share price increase since they ceased the previous buybacks. What's the point?

"after today's fall, looks like one of your shorts is now at periscope depth!"
===============================================================================

I think it's a trap! They are trying to bring me up to the surface so they can drop a couple of depth charges on me.

[perfido] 20/4/2021 15:44

Buyback or no buyback debate?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

No worries bracke, I'm firmly on the 'no' side of the argument now.

The original buyback was completed at an average price of around 21.60* from memory, a considerable discount on the current price of 46.00.

At the current level, the shares look expensive, and for different reasons perhaps a 1 for 1 script issue would make the shares more attractive? They have done it before :-)

In addition, if we are suffering from a surfeit of cashflow, a special dividend might address the problem without setting an unsustainable precedent for the existing progressive/cautious dividend policy?

P.S.: After today's fall, looks like one of your shorts is now at periscope depth!

* Edit: Correction, average buyback price was 21.26

[bracke] 20/4/2021 14:23

"£75m a qtr for 2 years is £600m
Which is a long way short of £1bn"
=================================

But..."The Group intends to commence the programme at a run rate of around GBP75m per quarter and to flex this amount."
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

'around' and 'flex this amount'. Plenty of leeway for £1bn.

Using an share price of £46 as the price used to buy back shares and using all of the £1bn the total number of shares bought would be 21.7 million which is 4.55% of the shares in issue. All things being equal if the shares were cancelled that would seem to increase the share price from £46 to approx £48.

THIS POST IS NOT INTENDED TO RESURRECT THE 'BUYBACK V NO BUYBACK' DEBATE.

[fenners66] 20/4/2021 12:53

£1bn at todays prices buys only about 4.5% of the equity so perhaps adds 8p a share to EPS

What about spending that £bn buying more market share ?

Or better yet , paying me another £2 a share dividends over 2 years ?

[fenners66] 20/4/2021 12:19

"we expect to be at the lower end of our target leverage range of 1.5 to 2.0 times at the end of April, the Group intends to recommence its share buyback programme from the beginning of May 2021.

Subject to ongoing shareholder approval, over the next two financial years the Group anticipates buying back up to GBP1 billion in shares. The Group intends to commence the programme at a run rate of around GBP75m per quarter and to flex this amount "

Results ahead of last expectations as well

£75m a qtr for 2 years is £600m
Which is a long way short of £1bn

So that's my dividend increase snookered then !

[bracke] 20/4/2021 12:03

Good day fenners


I thought you may have been 'eyeing' £50 by Christmas. Given the current situation £50 would not have surprised me.

Apart from the FED tapering asset purchases the other possibilities that may put a 'crimp' on the market is a failure to get the full $1.9 Trillion stimulus package through both houses and the tax rises that are being lined up.

[mirabeau] 20/4/2021 12:03

trading update - RNS

[fenners66] 20/4/2021 11:48

LOL....

Disgusted from wherever...

Actually read back through the thread I was suggesting that a take out of less than £40 could possibly have been done..and here we are at £46!

A lot is baked into the share price now - more volume of plant hire , better rates , more market share, more US consolidation and it all has to pan out in the next few years.

It could

I was hoping to reach £40 in a few years time I cannot believe we are already here.

[bracke] 20/4/2021 11:18

Good day perfido

I would refer to the rise as relentless since 19 March 2020.

I expect fenners will be writing to The Times about yesterdays drop as 'Disgusted of Wherever'. S/holders will have been taken aback by the drop and some will be seeking medical attention.

I have to say I am disappointed by your response to my financial situation. As a fellow AHT traveller I had expected a more generous reply. However I will accept your best wishes and offer them as a 'goodwill' asset in the Bankruptcy Court.

Regards

Froggie

[perfido] 20/4/2021 09:48

Good morning bracke

The channel I was referring to is for closing prices over the last six months, definitely a rising trend I am sure we can agree?

'Assistance on the cash front?' Dream on, I only bet on certainties!

My support unfortunately only extends to best wishes..........
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[bracke] 19/4/2021 17:47

perfido

Thank you for your offer of assistance. I presume it includes assistance on the cash front?
BTW todays candle is an engulfing one. Question now, is the engulfing completed or more to come.


Depends which channel you are referring to.

AHT 1 HOUR

[perfido] 19/4/2021 17:40

Apposite indeed!

Some may think that it is just coincidence, but following my post at the weekend, AHT closed -1.6% (-75p) @ 4600, but still within the rising channel I believe.

Do let me know if I can help further bracke? :-)

[bracke] 19/4/2021 12:16

Thank you perfido

The phrase 'under water' is very apposite

Regards

Froggie

[perfido] 18/4/2021 10:06

Good morning bracke,

Lol!!

Sorry to hear your shorts are still under water, but hopefully like the aforementioned analogic creatures which must not be mentioned, the shorts will rise to the surface again and allow a modest profit to be booked, before AHT resumes its inexorable rise :-)

Good luck!

[bracke] 17/4/2021 15:45

Good day perfido

Shorts remain open and yes the maxim is a good one. The current loss on the shorts is not causing much pain so I continue to hold on the basis that the market is overdue at least a 5% pullback. I did post that I may add to my shorts. I have not done so yet but it remains a possibility if I think the timing is right.

As for as the US markets one ponders how long the current increase will continue before the market becomes nervous irrespective of the Fed money pumping operation.

When the FED decide enough is enough it will be interesting to see how they manage the withdrawal of stimulus and how the market reacts. That's all to come.

I appreciate your diplomatic avoidance of the 'F' word

Regards

Froggie bracke

[perfido] 16/4/2021 18:13

Good evening bracke,

Thanks for the charts posted above and URI news link.

Have you closed your two shorts? The maxim 'don't bet against the Fed or Ashtead' springs to mind - hindsight is a marvelous thing and AHTs recent upwards trajectory has amazed us all, involving the willing suspense of disbelief!! Long may it continue even for those of us with much reduced holdings!

(You will appreciate I have resisted the temptation to mention the tailless amphibians with a short squat body, moist smooth skin, and very long hind legs for leaping, it just didn't seem right in the circumstances :-)

Nice up-tick to end the day..

[bracke] 16/4/2021 10:29

Bought one and buying another.

[fenners66] 16/4/2021 08:48

URI just made a cash acquisition.

$639m + taking on $400m in debt

It says

"Net of synergies, the purchase price represents a multiple of 9.0 times trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA, and an adjusted purchase multiple of 8.8 times, including the net present value of acquired tax benefits."

Not sure what the mean by "net of synergies" - perhaps ignoring them ?

Just wonder how that Enterprise value compares to AHT at the moment.....

[bracke] 15/4/2021 11:36

Here are four AHT charts Hourly, Daily, Weekly and Monthly which some may find interesting. Certainly if you are a shareholder they are a delight.

AHT HOURLY




AHT DAILY




AHT WEEKLY




AHT MONTHLY

[bracke] 13/4/2021 10:53

A fast break for the hills at the open but no stamina and a return to the status quo. Perhaps results from the US this week will determine the direction.

[bracke] 09/4/2021 19:10

And here is a daily chart showing the rising channel and a break out at the top. Question to ask. Is this a false b/out or the real thing. You can see where the share price is in relation to the bottom of the rising channel and the SMAs'. Onward and upward or time for retrace/pullback?