Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[2flatpack] 02/12/2019 19:26

Cheers bracke

[bracke] 02/12/2019 18:06

Good day 2flat

"I'm told you need a special tool shaped like bracke."
=====================================================

LOL!!!! I read that 5 minutes ago and I'm still laughing!.....I've been called worse.


"I cannot figure out why the price dropped to 1600"
====================================================

I can't remember what was occurring at the time but looking at the chart the share price had attempted to break above 2450 several times and failed. It's not unusual that when that occurs holders decide to 'cash in their chips'. It only needs some of the larger holders to set the ball rolling, the share price drops below a support zone and the stream of sells becomes a flood.

Look where it was finally supported. Between December 2016 and August 2017 1600 was a major support zone. It completed a full reversal back to the level it had started from and then commenced the process all over again and look where it reversed this time, looks familiar doesn't it.

If it's supported at 2300 it may try to break 2450 again. If it continues down a close below 2263 would be concerning. A close below the last major swing high from 2070 would be alarming.

To those who think all of the above is a load of spherics no need to post I will take it as read.

[2flatpack] 02/12/2019 17:29

Evening bracke
I could not agree with you more. as you have pointed out my problem is identifying entry and exit points. I have found the 200 usually a good entry point but on the odd occasion I have been force to hold a little longer than expected .
Your example meant I needed to hold from Oct 18 to June 19 .No great problem, in fact it was a buying opportunity .
I cannot figure out why the price dropped to 1600, if anyone can put forward a theory I would be very interested.
I have tried to use MAC D and RSI and have even played with with pitch forks but with very little success , I'm told you need a special tool shaped like bracke .
So for entry I use the 200 day and exit when it looks to be peaking.
With AHT its easy, short term investments may need to turn to medium term investments but for me patience has always been rewarded.
Cheers

[bracke] 02/12/2019 16:14

A retrace and then some. gap at 2323 from 22 November filled. 2300 for support?

[bracke] 01/12/2019 13:05

Good day 2flat

Yes I agree the share price does have 'chunky' ups and 'chunky' downs. The danger of a drop to the Daily SMA 200 is a failure to stop and continuation of the drop.

If you view a two year chart the share price dropped to the Daily SMA 200 which supported and then rose on a couple of occasions. Previous to that the visits to the Daily SMA 200 did not stop, the share price continued below that level for a further few hundred more points.

When it does drop to the Daily SMA 200 caution is needed before buying.

[davr0s] 29/11/2019 18:21

I have no idea what you are going on about - I use no indicators in my model as they are all backward looking so don't tell me anything and you can't predict where any share is going to go. This share is breaking out above a rising trend with accelerating forecast earnings - I hold until this situation changes. People make it far too complicated imo

[2flatpack] 29/11/2019 17:25

Afternoon bracke
I fear this apoplectic holder you describer is long dead.
Anyone holding AHT long term is made of sterner stuff.
With a share price that oscillates in a wide band (35%) for no apparent reason .They need to be able hang loose .
So far in my investing memory it has always rewarded the holders eeer eventually.
I still live in hope.
Cheers

[bracke] 29/11/2019 15:27

Good day 2flat

"now waiting for the next visit to the 200 day.As always I live in hope."
===========================================================================

WHAT!!! The Daily SMA 200 is currently 2150! The mere thought of such a catastrophic fall is likely to cause all manner of apoplexies to holders.

You've got to break it to them more easily eg. 'There's a possibility of a retrace to the Daily SMA 50'. Then when it drops to that level you can post 'Possibility of a visit to the Daily SMA 200'.

If you are feeling particularly sympathetic you could point out that the Daily SMA 200 is rising.

The 'stage' approach causes less alarm and prepares them for the worse.

It's currently supported at 2360 which has been a major support zone previously. If it fails to hold there is that gap at 2323 to fill.

[2flatpack] 29/11/2019 12:17

Morning All
DavROs
Surprised at you conclusions with regarded to AHT.
Being a quant trader and AHT such a volatile share. I would have expected you to use you expertise to determine entry and exit points.
I tend to buy and hold ,but when the 200 day SMA is near I find I have a compulsion to buy, tending to sell at the next convenient high.
AHT seems to hit the 200 day SMA about 2-4 times a year .
So far it has worked for me.
Have just top slice above 2400 and now waiting for the next visit to the 200 day.
As always I live in hope.
Cheers

[bracke] 28/11/2019 11:00

That's better.

[fenners66] 28/11/2019 10:58

ok - Alans then

[demo trader] 28/11/2019 09:32

Ashtead Group fell -63p to 2381p after HSBC downgraded its rating on the stock to Hold from Buy.

[bracke] 26/11/2019 17:40

Dav

I don't predict either. I use charts to assess probability which works for me. I know fenners uses financial fundamentals. I presume you base your buys and sells on some sort of criteria.

[davr0s] 26/11/2019 17:27

No idea where price is going - I never make predictions because it introduces bias into what you do

[bracke] 26/11/2019 17:21

All Time Closing High of 2450 but no Intraday High which remains at 2461 achieved on 28/9/2018.

No proper retest of 2400 just a straight rise back to the early November high. A retrace would seem likely if only to 2412.

[davr0s] 26/11/2019 17:00

No but only because I noticed results were ahead and I've already got a chunky position so gap risk ahead. But my plans are only ever 50% accurate - it's what you do with the winners and losers that counts

[fenners66] 26/11/2019 16:32

Looks like you called it right Davros , did you buy more?

[davr0s] 25/11/2019 19:36

If it moves on tomorrow I'm adding to my position

[davr0s] 25/11/2019 19:00

It's broken on an EOD basis today

[bracke] 25/11/2019 17:39

The Daily chart suggests high probability of a breakup tomorrow. Holding the break is another matter. A test of 2400 from above is likely.

[bracke] 25/11/2019 10:33

One gap filled at 2350 but one opened from Friday close.

[perfido] 24/11/2019 18:10

Good day bracke,

In short you see AHT as a trading share, I see it as a core long term investment, selling down only to reduce risk when the price is right.

Nothing wrong with either approach in my view, I wish you good fortune!