Asfare Share Discussion Threads

[tom.muir] 16/11/2006 15:24

Liars - I think you are right, it looks as if MM's are very short of stock. Witness the recent trade when they had to pay £1.40 for a measly 2500 shares. Must be very desperate. :-))

[andysand] 16/11/2006 15:23

All kinds of trades going on behind the scenes I think. yes, it will be interesting to look at what's been going on after the close.


Andy

well, there's a large trade appeared already. A buy at 140p of 30,000 shares. No wonder we are higher. Wouldn't be suprised to see a lot of small sells too otherwise we'd be through the roof I suspect!

[diogenesj] 16/11/2006 13:43

Not too late, Cambium. Should be worth at least £2. (I'm not mentioning £3 again.)

[liarspoker] 16/11/2006 13:36

MM's fishing for stock ?

Edit: It'll be interesting to watch the trades later.

[chester] 16/11/2006 13:36

I think it must have been your mention of £3.

[diogenesj] 16/11/2006 13:34

Blimey, there's no stopping it now. :-)

[chester] 16/11/2006 13:31

mmm, nice.

[daunker] 16/11/2006 13:30

With a good company like this I don't look for price targets, as long as the story remains the same just keep holding. Definitely an outperformer this one, plus it will also do well in a more defensive market. MM's definitely very short of stock- reminds me of when I was getting in, then a mysterious 25,000 trade turned up (which egoi postulated could have been from the company demanded by mm's to give liquidity). Very good signs...

[diogenesj] 16/11/2006 13:24

Damn, I've been expecting £3+. I suppose I can live with £2 though. :-)

[liarspoker] 16/11/2006 12:49

Hi Geovest - I always work out my own calculations too. However I am not too sure about my working for ASF. Luckily they are inline with broker forecasts too ( although slightly below ).

Basically what I got was:

9/6/06: Order book & sales @ Stg 3m

I added Stg 1,513,600 for Collins as growth in the figures was 10% yr on yr so I divided that by 2 for the interims.

The maintenance contract I only added Stg 100K for as the Stg 500K is spread over 5 years ( not assuming any increases etc ). For Tod again I added on 10% for the figures.

So what I got was:

3,000,000
1,513,600
100,000
1,043,290
___________

5,656,890

Then I multiplied this by the FY 2006 margin of 6.38%

= Stg 360,909

I divided this by the number of shares and got:

8.02p

Multiply that by 2 for the full year and we get 16.5p not taking into account further contract wins.

I also left out admin increases, interest (re)payments etc but it's a basic idea. It's a bit long winded but the basic idea is there - I haven't looked at the figures closely enough to narrow it down further.

Even if we do 16.5p then on a reasonable multiple on this sort of growth we are looking at a share price of around the 2 Pound mark imo.

[geovest] 16/11/2006 11:58

LP- I tend to do my on calculations and estimates to compare with broker forecasts. I have used the following asumptions:
Underlying Fire business - 20% growth
Todd included for full year compared to 4.5months in previous year +15% growth.
Collins 9 months included using latest financials plus conservative 10%
Interest paid increased to £220k
This produced a full taxed EPS of 15.3p. If the available tax losses are used this year, the full year EPS could increase to 18.4p. This is not far off the broker forecast of 17.56p
The above is based on pre-goodwill figures as used by the brokers and compares to last years 10.6p

[cb7] 16/11/2006 11:50

last years eps was -2.3 and +12.9 for H1 and H2, (pre goodwill), so brokers estimates look easily attainable

[liarspoker] 16/11/2006 11:28

To be honest, after just reviewing the forecasts etc, I am not sure what figures to expect for the results. I know that Seymour P was holding of with upgrades after the last contract win due to constant upgrades before that. Perhaps they are waiting for the results just like we are and will upgrade if the results are decent. Just a thought.

PS I find Sp notoriously hard to get info out of. Does anyone have a good contact there ?

[liarspoker] 16/11/2006 11:15

Flying up now.

Once we break out over the high we have nothing but blue sky, if a contract announcement is included in the results then look out imo. I agree with your figures egoi but we will just have to wait and see.

Edit: I reckon the MM's are way short of stock. Every buy just sends level II upwards.

[egoi] 16/11/2006 10:10

Just as long as people are realistic and don't hold store by Digital Look's inflated looking figures we'll be fine - steady rise can continue rather than unwanted spikes and troughs (t-20s not likely to make money on stocks like this).
I'd be very happy with interims of 5-6p eps and a decent enough outlook.

[chester] 16/11/2006 09:24

Once this gets going it could really fly.

[liarspoker] 16/11/2006 09:08

Ticking up pre results.

[liarspoker] 15/11/2006 07:57

Notice of Results

RNS Number:0894M
Asfare Group plc
15 November 2006


15 November 2006




Asfare Group plc


Interim Results - Wednesday 29 November 2006

Asfare, a specialist supplier of products and services for the Emergency
Services and Homeland Security markets, will be announcing its Interim Results
for the six months ended 30 September 2006 on Wednesday 29 November 2006.



- Ends -

[liarspoker] 14/11/2006 16:39

DJ - I am sure you are doing alright. ;O)

egoi - the quiet thread bit or the new high bit ?

[egoi] 14/11/2006 16:10

Wondered how long it'd take you to mention that Liars! -:)

[diogenesj] 14/11/2006 16:05

Quiet and ill-informed in my case, Spoker.

[liarspoker] 14/11/2006 15:59

New high. :O)

Level II still very strong: 3 v 1

[liarspoker] 11/11/2006 12:17

I love threads like this: Only a few posts every now and then.

A quiet well informed thread usually means the stock is a good one. Buy now and sell when every man and his dog are posting.

A perfect example is IBG when the Sp was still in single digits. Only a few posters posting excellent posts. I don't think ASF will be a 10 bagger though but it would be a nice surprise if it did become one. Lol !

[what is a login ?] 09/11/2006 12:36

I have just picked up a few more ASF shares to make a round number. 121p. A bit like filling up the mineral water bottle. I think this company has good relations with the Fire Brigade and the share price is sure to rise as it rustles up new contracts with them.