Ascent Resources Share Discussion Threads

[chinese investor] 06/4/2018 12:59

"Ascent provided an operational update on 5 April 2018 indicating that operational
issues relating to the Pg-11A well had reduced production to circa 1.4 mmcf/d from
2.5 mmcf/d in the prior month.

We had been anticipating a modest production rise over the course of 2018 to 3.0 mmcf/d.

We have lowered our production estimates from the company’s first two wells out until 2H 2019, reducing our fair value estimate modestly (by 0.05 p/sh).

We have pushed out the date at which we anticipate the company will have commissioned a new gas plant and the related sales growth by three months to Jan 2020, which reduced our fair value estimate modestly (by 0.06p/sh).

We have reduced our chance of success factor (a WHI estimate to reflect the probability that the Petisovci wells will produce consistently with the assumptions in our model) to 50% from 67%, to reflect the complications at the Pg-11A well, which reduced our estimate of fair value by 0.66p/sh.

We ascribe the company with a fair value of 2.34p/sh (from 3.11 p/sh before putting our estimates under review of 5 April 2018).


Operational challenges: The implications of operational challenges are well-specific and, in our opinion, have no read-across on the scale of the resource potential at Petisovci.

The current impediments to production consist of a stuck mandrel (tubular assembly) and water having flooded the hole, the pressure (weight) of which is impeding the flow of gas.

The mandrel is effectively impeding the regular pumping out of the downhole water.

Pg-10 Well: Ascent indicated that the Pg-10 well is producing in line with expectations, which implies that the only well that is actually testing the productive characteristics of the Petisovci field is providing data that supports the success-case resource estimates assumed in our valuation.

IPCC Permit: Ascent indicated that the baseline report required for the IPCC Permit has been completed and is due for submission on 6 April 2018.

We therefore note that permitting is progressing and all indications suggest the Slovenian authorities (Environment Agency, Environment Minister and Administrative Court) continue to support the company’s intention of building a gas plant.

As a reminder, the gas plant is intended to allow the company to produce gas into the local Slovenian market at a price that is 47% higher than the company is currently achieving by exporting gas to Croatia.


Gas Prices: Ascent indicated that it achieved a gas price of €8.75/mcf in March, up 29% from the prior year.

This price compares to our assumption of €4.20/mcf for 1H 2018 (weighted average price assumption).

We recognise that the March period has been particularly cold and that summer pricing will likely be lower than the cited March price; nevertheless, the exceptionally strong pricing environment should potentially mitigate the effect of the lower than expected volumes.


On balance: Whereas we had anticipated two wells to provide production data to support our estimates and validate the greater potential of the field (5.79p/sh), so far one well is providing supportive data and the other well suggests that operational risk are potentially higher than we had anticipated.

Based on our success- case estimates, the Petisovci field could produce for a decade at circa 35 mmcf/d from 15-28 wells at any one time.

Therefore the operational set-backs related to a single well in this context would be taken in stride; for now it is unfortunate that a well specific issue can affect half of the company’s production.


Share price: Whilst recognising the operational set-back at the Pg-11A well, we believe the company’s share price of 0.88 p/sh currently represents a compelling opportunity vs. our 2.35 p/sh fair value estimate and our 5.79 p/sh success-case valuation.

We believe that there has been an inordinate focus on the negative implications of developments without sufficient appreciation of the progress made by the company (achieving first gas sales, success at Pg-10 and the progression of the IPCC permit) and the various fortunate developments such as the strengthening price of gas in Europe."

[temmujin] 06/4/2018 12:30

Quite a turnaround for AST. I have to agree that the share price didn’t make much sense since Nov all we’ve had is good news... Understand sentiment has fallen and rightly so. But yesterday’s RNS and shareholder meeting have turned things in my eyes. Malcy’s mentions profit warning... a few weeks before accounts are out. WHIreland lower value down by 0.76p in just 6 months! Valuing company at a risked level 24% less - and that’s a supposed ‘risked’ level... Why fix a well when gas prices at highest for many years. It’s like the delays are forced or planned. Not sure but something does seem to be going on - either PIs are in the dark and someone is getting in cheap, CH is not being as transparent as he makes out to be, or worse Slovenian partners know something we do not and just passing on whatever news they decide to Colin. Maybe all three? All IMO... I’m all ears for the thoughts of the positive AND negative folk on this B.B.

[temmujin] 06/4/2018 12:25

The lies just keep getting exposed of CH, but like every rat he has a get out close, oh we thought even with CC the fat tool being stuck down the well we thought it would flow good, you thought? I could think a lot doing is what’s needed. And then the IPPC, reports due to be submitted the day after the RNS, why not wait till that day to RNS all in all the games being played by CH stink. #CH Accountability# give up your salary for your lies

[chinese investor] 06/4/2018 12:01

14 March 2018 RNS !

"With cash in the bank and revenues from the on-going sale of gas and condensate, and in the absence of any unexpected operational issues, the Company has no need or intention to seek new funding for the foreseeable future."

[temmujin] 05/4/2018 19:00

Quwstions, questions....Today 18:481. Did CH have a legal duty to disclose the problemscwith Pg11a and its subsequent workover. He did state that a filter
was being fitted to the Pg11a pipeline subsequently production had been less duevto tyevtime necessaryvto carry out the work

2. Why dis CH not mention thus at the Ii or PI meetings

3. Why did CH state that he knew no reason for the low share price when the fall started effectifely when the problem with Pg11a was discovered. I believe we knew about the stuck tool sometime before September 2017 andcwere led to believe it had been dealt with.

4. Did CH say the IPPC issuance was a formality, in the bag, imminent

5. Did Colin say IIs would invest at 0.8p in large tranches

6. Why has thd BoD decided to workover the well when it was producing gas at a steady rate, not my words but the BoDs

[temmujin] 05/4/2018 18:54

probably done on purpose for a low buy out..hutchison will be gone soon..trust me...he darent show is face again at an investor show or AGM

[chinese investor] 05/4/2018 14:13

It is this sort of RNS comment that has resulted in PIs losing faith in Colin.
The incredible cold spell in March (remember "The Beast For The East") meant freakish high gas prices.

"The average price of gas at the CEGH hub for the month of March 2018 was 21.84 euros per MwH, being 29% higher than in the corresponding period in 2017."

[chinese investor] 05/4/2018 10:25

We received 303,181 euros for November 2017 - this amount included receipts for Condensate !

[chinese investor] 05/4/2018 10:20

We are producing 41,432 cubic metres a day - INA can't be happy with that !

"For the first two months (i.e. November 2017 and December 2017) these translate into a range of 58,182 to 77,577 cubic metres per day; which based on the average rates over the last twelve months would generate revenue to Ascent of between 220,000 euros and 290,000 euros per month.

In the subsequent ten months of the contract the range is 63,031 to 82,425 cubic metres per day; which based on the average rates over the last twelve months would generate revenue to Ascent of between 240,000 euros and 310,000 euros per month."

[chinese investor] 05/4/2018 09:11

November 2017
1,716,172 cubic metres
303,181 euros


December 2017
1,975,207
.


January 2018
approx 2,250,000
.


February 2018
1,787,616
.


March 2018
1,242,948
.

[chinese investor] 05/4/2018 08:16

Colin has not released all the numbers - hopefully he'll release the revenues next week !

[mrphiljones] 05/4/2018 08:12

Pray for Brando 🙏

[metaman] 04/4/2018 17:56

when will that be?

As you seems so confident, are you buying 10M shares or even 30m shs? why look at Colin make money?

[chinese investor] 04/4/2018 15:41

So when the share price reaches 3p Colin's Options will be worth £2,100,000 !

[chinese investor] 04/4/2018 15:24

November 2017 - 1.975p

Colin Hutchinson 34,031,255
Clive Carver 13,612,502
Nigel Moore 6,806,251
Cameron Davies 6,806,251


May 2016 - 1.58p

Colin Hutchinson 34,964,709
Clive Carver 13,985,884
Nigel Moore 6,992,942
Cameron Davies 6,992,942


Both Exercisable between 3 and 10 years

[tommmy] 04/4/2018 10:56

Just like DB said he has £15K of shares but if share price goes past 1.90p, he makes £1.2m with free options.

Maybe you need to understand when you are being punked

[chinese investor] 04/4/2018 08:15

"Colin Hutchinson, Chief Executive Officer, acquired 300,000 Ordinary Shares at a price of 1.743 pence per share.

Following this transaction, Colin Hutchinson's shareholding is 1,570,370 Ordinary Shares, representing 0.07% of the issued share capital of the Company.

In addition, he holds options over 69,261,652 shares at an average strike price of 1.8973 pence.

Therefore, including share options, he has an interest in 70,832,022 shares representing 2.93% of the fully diluted share capital of the Company."

[dragonboy] 03/4/2018 21:39

This makes so angry, we were at 2.5p last Aug. We been let down. Hope we do not go back to 0.4p


Can someone please tell me why this company is still valued at £22m for the pittance of revenue it gets?


What's the profit?

What's the CAPEX for next stage? And where do they get the funding?

Colin has circa £19k worth of shares about 0.17% holding why shareholders want to give him a few millions worth of options if he manages to exercise them above 1.83p. Exercising those options will be essentially give him millions, when he bought £6K worth of shares in July or august last week.

How many times worth of his salary is that? Is AST a money fountain?

[chinese investor] 26/3/2018 12:29

Full price just paid for 200,000 !

[chinese investor] 26/3/2018 10:08

Can't wait for the three month production and revenue figures which will be released next week !

[ducatiman] 23/3/2018 20:00

Looks like the mms have been paying over mid for stock today