Arrow Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[king suarez] 10/12/2024 21:07

I'm definitely no expert, but thx lol :)

[royalalbert] 10/12/2024 21:03

HG nothing wrong with those sentiments.

[highly geared] 10/12/2024 20:59

It seems the oil price decline from mid $80’s to low $70’s from mid-late summer knocked sector sentiment and caused shareholders to de-risk and take some off the table.

This sentiment change then evolved into a focus on well declines and the “running hard to stand still “ scenario in terms of sustained production increase.

This further reinforced a negative sentiment and this has been layered with what appears to be a large holder selling down.

For a junior oiler , their business plan execution has been near impeccable and they probably need another 18 months , assuming similar trajectory, to get reserves up to 20mmbls and BOPD to sustainable 10,000+

[royalalbert] 10/12/2024 20:52

K3 you put out an interesting post on the PTAL board in Aug,



kaos3 - 14 Aug 2024 - 19:22:36 - 131 of 271 New PTAL thread, Largest oil producer in Peru. - PTAL

I speculate - axl

the smart swiss money is in both and is also actively sharing knowledge and info via board representation in both companies

I highly regard swiss people involved

critical mass and risk dispersion plus better logistics possibilities (when larger), better negotiation power, righs and other items sharing etc.

I stated there was nothing wrong with that idea.

Also a while back on here you were waiting on the gap to fill, take my hat off to you and well played.

[the skipper] 10/12/2024 20:49

I’ve had this stock on my watch list for some time and have been enjoying the quality of the contributions, but today I have been researching reasons for the sharp decline in the share price and I think this might be the reason:

[bad gateway] 10/12/2024 20:49

Thanks for the input all. Picked a few up just above the completion of gap today. Was worried there maybe too many watching for the bounce for it to be hit spot on.
Find out tomorrow I guess.
atb all.

[kaos3] 10/12/2024 20:40

fair... i ll stop going further into the detail ... i spilled one theory .... which might or might not be true who knows...

what i know is ... axl at this point is a huge buy for me - after waiting all these years following it in silence

it was hard sitting on my hands specially the last few weeks

and RA a big thank you for your expert input. I learn a lot from you and have lots of respect for the work you do and share

[royalalbert] 10/12/2024 20:38

EHL the answer to your question is no, sorry. Everything is just ideas.

[royalalbert] 10/12/2024 20:32

We all have our ideas, interesting ones too.

[kaos3] 10/12/2024 20:12

RA - hardly - due to the ownership structure, BOD presence, shared tec, tech transfer from ptal - which was officially stated

at so high professional operating level - there are probably also many operational poisson pills planted into the contracts. perfect grip

plus

certain hired loobying companies can be very persuasive

all imho

i have never seen competitive bidding in the last decade btw in any of the companies that were taken over in my portofoglio.

those times are long gone.

regarding the smooth fairy tale axl story in such a difficult environment - there was a big guy blessing imho combined with getting the best people around - who were told the real stuff

but i might just be a dreamer

[charleysays] 10/12/2024 20:02

KS - I don’t think it’s a set up for a cheap takeover. Like Dave I think a fund or other such larger holder is reducing. The drop from the top is over 35%, more than PTAL and AET. It’s someone with a deadline - Edale?

[royalalbert] 10/12/2024 20:02

I certainly don't put everything I believe or think on a BB, and neither will anyone else, posters will always have an agenda to suit their trading pattern at any given time.

Kaos3 know were you are coming from regarding the similarities of PTAL and AXL, but other companies can spoil any party.

[mount teide] 10/12/2024 19:56

HG - MT/PB - 'I trekked to K2 BC 6 years ago. That was more than enough for me. Spectacular scenery but totally knackering getting there to see it.'

Take my hat off to you - a great achievement.

After first watching many years ago the documentary posted earlier - I thought the trek to K2 (Not the climb - I'm no mountaineer) was something I would have liked to have attempted as a younger man.....the stunning scenery made it look an extraordinary experience.

'Yes, the share price graph is looking like the Abruzzi Spur!' - intimidating even for the professionals!

[kaos3] 10/12/2024 19:26

yes - similar water recycling business, similar market routes, same ovners, similar agency influences and so on

on the other hand ptal could easily buy axl ... major owner .... selling his stake to himself ... or better said to his interests in the bluewater

all legally prepared step by step in the last few months as i described above

it is strange that i am alone thinking that way again - despite pointing it to RA and the others months before (in cryptic way) - moaning about ptal sp

and both share price going down makes me think of a combination, not a to. if there would be a to there is no need for ptal to go down

but what can a slovenian jester gardener know anyway ... do not take me seriously - i am talking bs most of the time. i can barely speak english

[king suarez] 10/12/2024 19:19

kaos3 - are you alluding to a potential merger with PTAL?

[king suarez] 10/12/2024 19:18

AXL is down a lot more than AET?

JSE had reasons for the collapse - poorly managed FSPO repair that cost the company a fortune and led to share dilution, so trust has been diminished.

AXL management on the other hand barely put a foot wrong. Operationally gone from strength to strength yet the share price seems hit disproportionately hard to me?

[fireplace22] 10/12/2024 19:13

Why do you think this is subject to any influence other than that which affects much of the sector? You all know the status of JSE and AET and probably a few more in a similar situation, can't all be being eased down for cheap take outs?

[jbravo2] 10/12/2024 19:11

Yes plenty of shares available. Let’s see where the bottom is. May be a while yet.

[dave4545] 10/12/2024 19:06

Clearly a fund is selling with Shore.

You can be certain the 250k at 21.5p is actually a worked sale with them.

Simple question is how many do they have left and who is the seller ?

[kaos3] 10/12/2024 18:55

i think of a combination to create something much, much bigger

[king suarez] 10/12/2024 18:44

Is the consensus now that we're all being set up to be screwed with a lowball takeover offer? That would be seriously disappointing given the potential here...

[swanvesta] 10/12/2024 18:36

J1m1e, that's the reality. And the only answer really is to manage your expectations and not overpay - it's something I'm trying to get better at anyway. Buy when the shares are silly cheap (now might be a good time?) and don't get carried away by promotional interviews and BB enthusiasm!

[eaglehaslanded] 10/12/2024 17:43

RA, do anyone have access to top 20 shareholders list and track an eventual takeover?

[royalalbert] 10/12/2024 17:31

J1m1e agree with the cheap takeover idea, we are in the dark whatever. However if a takeover approach did appear expect it to be rebuffed, also there are others who would have an interest.