Arrow Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[highly geared] 10/12/2024 17:21

MT/PB - I trekked to K2 BC 6 years ago. That was more than enough for me. Spectacular scenery but totally knackering getting there to see it.

Yes, the share price graph is looking like the Abruzzi Spur!

[j1m1e] 10/12/2024 16:58

What for Kaos?
A cheap takeover?
Cause it sure is looking that way.
The big boys get their cash producing assets for pennies on the dollar - what was it, a $2m drill returns $50m over the life of a well or something? Management get their millions in salary whilst developing said assets and the poor PI gets a small slice at the end with some icing. Win win for all!!

[kaos3] 10/12/2024 16:26

same big holders !!!

and then look at their major share price entry points.... and how easy was for them to enter in a big way - just so

I was waiting for few years to get where we are with axl. and it looks i was not wrong

maybe i was right for a wrong reason - but hey ho - time will tell

it is a sweet spot entry now imho

[royalalbert] 10/12/2024 16:24

All I will say is both seem to be significantly undervalued at present, granted both have big holders who for whatever reason have been by the looks of selling down.

[kaos3] 10/12/2024 16:17

RA - can you see it now - how i see it and could you possibly agree?

[kaos3] 10/12/2024 16:09

exactly ... RA

it is texas boys and big texas family almost owning columbia behind it ... family starting with a B .. having all agency support that is needed... that is why it is smooth sailing in those otherwise unsafe waters

recruiting best local talent

combined with the kaz billions behind them

building their own critical mass regional player

taking a distance with bluewater enabeling arms distance etc for the legal reasons

leaving the bod

sharing tech knowledge

of course my working hypothesis ... but it is working like a train from my perspective....
being in motion for some 8 months

[royalalbert] 10/12/2024 16:04

K3 were you implying on your previous post about PTAL?

[des12345] 10/12/2024 15:47

Looks like we are about to close that little gap at 20-20.5p - you just knew it had to happen at some points

[kaos3] 10/12/2024 15:46

ok - now that the gap is almost filled i expect some side movements before the sellers event is unfolded

[mount teide] 10/12/2024 15:43

pb - lol!

Looks like we're back to base camp!

Hopefully, the K2 volatility here has proved a far less demanding mistress than that experienced by many of the world's best climbers who set out to climb that mountain over the years.

George Bell, a leading mountaineer of his era was very lucky to get off K2 alive after freezing his feet on the upper slopes and, thereafter called it the "Savage Mountain" as he said "It tries to kill you"

A great, highly watchable documentary of the first attempts to climb K2 over 80 years ago, described as "Orders of magnitude more difficult to climb than Everest" by leading mountaineers of today, made by the BBC when they were very good at such projects, using a lot of spectacular, highly interesting original video material.

Ghosts of K2 - "The Mountaineer's Mountain!"

[eaglehaslanded] 10/12/2024 15:23

Thank you all. I like the operational pace of Axl. Not happy about the decline. Somewhat also disappointed in reserves which each well give. Having said this I like the company very much and still have a smaller stake.

[royalalbert] 10/12/2024 15:08

Nice to see you are still here EHL.

[pastybap] 10/12/2024 15:08

Nevermind a ski jump, it takes more bottle holding on here as the price follows the geology of K2!

[mount teide] 10/12/2024 15:01

Nice to hear from you again Eddie!

Biggest star of the 1988 Olympics - heart and courage of a lion. Deserved a medal as it takes some serious bottle when you're not built like an athlete to strap on a pair of skis, helmet and face mask, and speed down a very steep 90 metre slope, take off and hopefully land on your skis over a football pitch length away.

[eaglehaslanded] 10/12/2024 14:32

I am here reading only, I have not had contact with Joe for a long time. When the time is right and the stock moves up again I might contact him again

[royalalbert] 10/12/2024 13:59

CharleySays 10 Dec '24 - 12:27 - 10123 of 10127

"I don’t think they read the boards, you’d have to message them."

I have let's see what becomes of it.

On the subject of messaging the company anyone know where "Eagle has Landed" is, always seemed to have a good rapport with joe.

[king suarez] 10/12/2024 13:34

Well, the 'Warren Buffetts' selling today clearly don't think Arrow will ever be worth more than £60m!?

[kaos3] 10/12/2024 12:32

RA -same owner group, similar region, similar share price action. connecting the dots. you can copy paste the text

[oakville] 10/12/2024 12:30

Holding at an average of 26.7p i wonder how low we would have to go before the directors topped up?

[charleysays] 10/12/2024 12:27

I don’t think they read the boards, you’d have to message them.

[royalalbert] 10/12/2024 12:17

About time the management had a word with peeps regarding this persistent seller.

[mount teide] 07/12/2024 18:52

What I thought was highly significant from Rystad's research with respect to Arrow Exploration's investment case is this data:

'The tight oil sector’s payback time is just two years, assuming an average oil price of $70 per barrel, illustrating how quickly operators are recovering their investments.

Payback time is closer to 10 years or more for the other supply segments. Tight oil also leads the pack in terms of IRR, with an estimated IRR of around 35% in the same average oil price scenario.

Conversely, oil sands, the most expensive supply source, has the lowest IRR of approximately 12%.'

Across every investment performance metric from payback time and OPEX to IRR, at $70 Brent, AXL blows O&G industry 'tight oil's' leading performers out the water, with daylight second!

AIMHO/DYOR

ps: Far from selling the sector - over a 2-3 year view, on the balance of probabilities the investment risk/reward currently on offer at $70 Brent for many high performing small cap O&G companies like Arrow/Afentra/Valeura, that are annually throwing off huge amounts of cash as a percentage of their current valuations, suggests the investment risk is skewed strongly to the upside, but, as with all good investments they have the added security of a high quality downside protection insurance policy, since many have high investment return business models based on $50 oil.

[papy02] 07/12/2024 16:03

Thanks, MT

[mount teide] 07/12/2024 15:25

P02 -'I am in a similar place).' Very sorry to hear that news - best wishes with your own battle!

Yet to see the evidence that AI is delivering the impact required to return US production growth back to the level where it could meet or exceed the annual increase in global oil demand - which has averaged around 1.5m bopd for decades.

Since December 2019, US shale and offshore oil production has only increased from 12.98 million bopd to 13.20 million bopd in Sept 2024.



Rystad Energy recently published some new research on the cost of developing new upstream projects - it suggests that despite rising costs, more supply is likely in 2030, driven mainly by production from OPEC countries, where costs are low, and that the resource potential is high. The new equilibrium oil price for 105 million barrels per day of demand in 2030 is around $55 per barrel.

'The cost of developing new upstream oil projects is continuing to rise as inflationary pressure and supply chain woes endure. New research from Rystad Energy shows that the average breakeven cost of a non-OPEC oil project grew to $47 per barrel of Brent crude, a 5% increase in the last year alone. Despite rising costs, breakevens are still less than current oil prices........

......Offshore deepwater and tight oil projects remain the most economical new supply sources, with oil sands still the most expensive. By analyzing breakeven costs, we can estimate how much crude oil will be delivered in the future based on the economic viability of different supply sources. The new research suggests that despite rising costs, more supply is likely in 2030, driven mainly by production from OPEC countries, where costs are low, and the resource potential is high. The new equilibrium oil price for 105 million barrels per day of demand in 2030 is around $55 per barrel.......

.....Rising breakeven prices reflect the increasing cost pressures on the upstream industry. This challenges the economic feasibility of some new projects, but certain segments, including offshore and tight oil, continue to offer competitive costs, ensuring supply can still be brought online to meet future demand. Managing these cost increases will be critical to sustaining long-term production growth.'

Espen Erlingsen, Head of Upstream Research, Rystad Energy