Arix Bioscience Share Discussion Threads

[pastybap] 11/12/2020 10:41

Tipped by Simon Thompson in IC Alpha this morning.

[chesil356] 10/12/2020 14:41

I'm struggling to get a quote today to buy any, is anybody else struggling?

[rambutan2] 04/12/2020 16:30

Confirmation that Acacia have finally got hold of the 19% (ex Woodford) stake. So, hopefully they won't dump it in truckloads on the mkt, but play a longer game and slowly place it out whilst not killing the price:

[rambutan2] 04/12/2020 16:10

Jane, looks more like IPO are being super conservative, or just forgot to update! As also an IPO holder I sometimes struggle to get my head round its valuation policy. ARIX, I would trust and say they'd be inline with the other VC investors.

Was £15.3m at last investment round, a valuation which all participants should agree on as fixed as at that round:


Shows they upped valuations by £3.9m in first half of this year ie as progress shown, which Merck deal would seem to agree with:



"IP Group has an 11.7% undiluted beneficial holding in Artios that was valued at £11.0m as at 30 June 2020. The directors anticipate that the Group's assessment of the value of its holding in Artios may increase by £5m-£15m as a result of the collaboration and will finalise this during the Group's 2020 Annual Results valuation process."

[jane deer] 04/12/2020 13:27

Am I missing something?

As far as I can see, Arix was valuing its 12.4% stake in Artios at £19.1m at the end of June 2020. But IP Group was valuing its 11.7% stake much more conservatively at £11.0m.

IP Group says that following the Artios/Merck deal, it would expect to increase its valuation of Artios at year-end by £5-15m. But the bottom end of this range would still give a lower valuation than Arix was giving its stake at end-June (before the Merck deal was announced).

Is this a one-off, or an indication of how Arix values its portfolio?

[apollocreed1] 04/12/2020 05:14

I think 289p is the full NAV

[simon gordon] 03/12/2020 21:09

Hi Ohisay,

What do you think fair value is?

Thanks

[ohisay] 03/12/2020 19:09

In a statement, Jonathan Tobin, managing director at Arix and an Artios board director, said: "Artios is a global powerhouse in DDR. Together with Merck KGaA's significant expertise and R&D resources, the collaboration will identify and develop precision oncology medicines targeting nucleases.

“As early investors and the largest shareholder in Artios, we are proud of the company's success. It is a testament to its leadership team and strategy in developing a unique discovery platform of novel DNA repair nuclease inhibitors and targets, which will bring real impact to cancer patients."

This collaboration follows the $2.75bn acquisition of Arix portfolio company VelosBio, last month, and reconfirms the potential of Arix’s private companies, it said.

Jefferies analyst Ken Rumph commented: “With Arix still trading on a significant discount despite the Velos deal's boost to NAV and cash, more validation from another early-stage asset should attract more interest and narrow the discount.”

[ohisay] 03/12/2020 08:34

Yes ..PRE todays news Hardman had its revised NAv following the VelosBio deal at £334m.So sitting on a 32% discount today.Thats far too high given a big chunk (over 50%) of that NAv is cash.

[n0rbie] 03/12/2020 08:09

Great piece of research from last month that I missed:

Arix Bioscience (ARIX) is a listed global venture capital (VC) company that presents an opportunity for institutional and retail investors to participate in the high risk-return profile of early-stage biotech investing. ARIX minimises risk through a combination of an expert investment team and portfolio diversification. Along with its 2020 interim results, management provided the market with some aspirational targets for the next three years, which would see the NAV double to ca.£500m. News that Merck & Co is to acquire portfolio company, VelosBio, for $2.75bn cash, giving ARIX >12x return on its investment, will help to smash these targets.

Strategy: ARIX sources investments from an established network and a strong scientific reputation. The portfolio is diversified by therapeutic area, treatment modality, stage of discovery/development and geography to balance the risk-reward profile. Value is realised when ARIX successfully exits its investments.

Acquisition of VelosBio: Major pharmaceutical company, Merck & Co (MRK), has announced the acquisition VelosBio for $2.75bn cash, to boost its position in oncology and provide it with another breakthrough technology in this field. The transaction, subject to approval under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Antitrust Improvements Act, is expected to close by the end of 2020.

Return on investment: VelosBio was introduced to ARIX by its strategic partner, Takeda Ventures. ARIX co-led the company’s Series A funding round in 2018, committing $11m/£8.6m, and made a further investment of $4.0m/£3.2m in VelosVio’s Series B in July 2020. ARIX is expecting to receive $185m/£142m for its stake, representing a 12.3x return.

Market reaction: Although the market responded favourably to this news, with the shares rising 55%, this equates to an increase in market capitalisation of only £74m compared with the £121m valuation uplift from the VelosBio consideration, and has expanded the discount to NAV from 31% to 34%. This suggests that the shares have much further to go.

Investment summary: The principal reason that ARIX has been trading on a discount to its NAV has been the “lack of a track record”. Management tried to allay the market’s concern with its interim results when it highlighted the portfolio’s IRR of 20% since inception and set itself some ambitious targets for the next three years. The trade sale of VelosBio means that these targets should be easily met and the market should be giving far more credit to the company.

[ohisay] 01/12/2020 13:06

Share price of @arixbioscience portfolio company, #Imara $IMRA, has risen 62% during the month of November. Clinical data from Phase IIa IMR-687 in adults with sickle cell disease (SCD) to be presented at the 62nd American Society of Hematology (#ASH) December 5-8, 2020.

[ohisay] 13/11/2020 10:54

What the broker says

Jefferies added that the VelosBio sale is the first strategic acquisition from Arix's portfolio, in addition to NAV gains and the removal of all funding concerns.

The US broker added the deal highlights and validates the value of Arix's assets, particularly the less visible private ones, as well as the management’s capability to execute and therefore should boost investors' confidence and narrow the discount.

“The substantially strengthened expected cash position of around £179m also provides the group with extra flexibilities for new and existing investments; or potentially some distributions to shareholders."

Special dividend quite likely I would have thought with current Market cap of £207m cf cash of £179m ?!

[chesil356] 05/11/2020 22:20

proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/219791/arix-bioscience-strategy-pays-off-big-time-as-merck-snaps-up-velosbio-219791.html

[chesil356] 05/11/2020 22:19

proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/219791/arix-bioscience-strategy-pays-off-big-time-as-merck-snaps-up-velosbio-219791.html

[chesil356] 05/11/2020 22:18

Add www. to the link below

[apollocreed1] 05/11/2020 20:06

Neil Woodford wasn't so clueless after all!

I was thinking of buying more at around 80p in September but seeing I was already down about 70% I was suspicious that this would turn out to be a scam

[n0rbie] 05/11/2020 13:57

Wow! Incredible return! A couple more of those please ;-)

[rambutan2] 05/11/2020 13:09

Happy days - at last!

That's approx 105p cash coming back...

[cokehookerscars] 05/11/2020 12:53

Bailed on 3/4 of my holding at 164 as I'd overexposed myself to this share really having averaged down a few times.
Made profit thankfully and keeping some for the future. Happy days :-)

[escapetohome] 05/11/2020 12:39

Very pleasing.

[babbler] 05/11/2020 12:27

89p profit. Actual value of sale is more tha. 89p

[eaaxs06] 05/11/2020 12:21

All interesting stuff, with Arix's share being worth £121m increase, equiv to 89p a share, there should be more to come with the share price at around 160p.

[eaaxs06] 05/11/2020 12:18

VelosBio to be acquired by Merck for $2.75 billion

The sale of VelosBio is expected to deliver net proceeds to Arix of approximately $185 million (GBP142million), representing a 12x return on Arix's GBP12 million invested capital. This equates to a GBP121 million (89p per share) increase in the gross value of Arix's holding in VelosBio of GBP21 million.