Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[shortarm] 12/9/2024 07:34

Can you at least title what you are linking to so I don’t waste my time on childish irrelevant posts?
Thanks in advance.

[backmarker] 12/9/2024 07:28

https://youtu.be/ZNt5FnMK2sM?si=1cPNb2FbpfMF9yRP

[shortarm] 12/9/2024 07:14

Zeus Note:
With the resumption of the dividend from
Zenit to Ariana expected to commence once more in 2025, following the completion of
construction at Tavsan, we see a bright future for Ariana as it continues to prove-up exciting
development-ready projects.
.
Production, do not know. Yet.

[jaf1948] 12/9/2024 06:51

Shortarm,

'Revised FS due for around 100k oz per annum!'

My questions have to be which annum and how is the company to going to finance itself until then.

[ironstorm] 12/9/2024 06:36

I would be happy to have a new NED. There are quite a bit of “insiders̶1; on the board. Not sure who is there to represent my interests.

An independent NED can be challenging to the company but also act a conduit from the board to investors.

Overall I am positive but there needs to be a more shareholder friendly approach.

[shortarm] 12/9/2024 06:22

Dokwe has been moving faster than anything in AAU history!.9th May, revised PFS for Dokwe13th Jun, revised MRE24 Jun, Dokwe detectORE results10 July, Dokwe pit optimisation (1.2M).Revised FS due for around 100k oz per annum!

[kaos3] 12/9/2024 05:18

aau was not able or willing to develop into production in the last 3 plus years

- salinbas
- apliki cyprus
- leopard

all with huge metal in the ground potential.

kaos3 bicycle to ferari potential grade

but who cares. with the new kid on the block dokwe this time it will be different.

for sure

[plasybryn] 11/9/2024 18:45

Konil - your last paragraphs are so painfully true. Market Cap same as before Dokwe and therefore shareholders seriously diluted. Basically, as we have said many times , the Board are inept at explaining the supposed value creation. Their words mean nothing without indicative numbers and firm indications of timescales. Surely shareholders recognise the urgent need to bolster the Board or replace dead wood with new life..

[konil] 11/9/2024 18:14

good post plasybryn. i reckon dokwe sale after some value add, say 2 years from now will bring some rewards forward by 6 years at least and avoid the need for capital raise.

but i wonder if ks sees it that way, according to biggles (and he has spoken with ks a fair amount and can guage his thinking) ks wants to own a 100k oz p.a. company. that worries me, makes me think ks may be too wedded to dokwe rather than seeing it as a business asset in cold financial terms.

too many existing assets in the portfolio we hear very little about, very thin bod, very little communication about overall company strategy.
what happened to cyprus/apliki? and unless i missed an update magellan gone to sleep too? salinbas once the big boy in the playground now overshadowed by dokwe and in any case where has salinbas gone in last 3 years? meanwhile the 'threat' of asx listing with associated dilution overhangs everything. and the capital raise for dokwe.

until we get a meaningful update on strategy across all assets with timelines the risk keeps ramping up. thoughts like 'rudderless ship' 'too much on their plate' 'massive upcoming debt' 'big dilution following big dilution' roll around in my head.

i'm here and i'm staying in the hope i can recoup at least some of the massive loss but i wouldn't choose to join now.



one last point. the mcap prior to dokwe was c.£32m. the mcap now c.£33m.

coincidence? who knows?

but currently the market has ascribed no meaningful value to dokwe in the aau umbrella.
as a consequence existing aau shareholders prior to the dokwe deal have suffered the full extent of the dilution due to enlarged number of shares.

[jaynesdad] 11/9/2024 17:51

Hello Plasbryn
Its the dilution prospect that that worries me at this share price given the future cash requirements. That's why I want them to add value at Dokwe(which is what they are very good at) and sell the project before building the plant or enter into a JV with free carry on the plant costs but retaining a majority interest so we don't end up like we have with Zenit ever again.
As for Cyprus the holding is probably worthless so either walk a way or pressure the other Venus shareholders to sell the balance of the equity to AAU. They could then develop Magellan if deemed worthwhile (the geologists must know the answer to this) and maybe Apliki if still available. Its paralysed at the moment, because AAU are just shareholders and I presume Venus as an entity cant afford to develop the asset. Kerim Sener doesn't even mention Cyprus any more, at least I cant remember when he last did!

[plasybryn] 11/9/2024 16:42

Kerim knows the guys at Rockover going back many, many years. This isn't/wasn't an out of the blue decision top acquire Rockover. The guys at Rockover were also desperate for a White Knight given their ages and the capital requirements to take Dokwe into production. Kerim has probably been binding his time when he thought Ariana was strong enough (Balance Sheet wise etc) to make this fairly big leap. I just hope that he hasn't jumped too soon. I voted against it but as the majority thought it was a good idea I would have much preferred to see Tavsan in production first and perhaps other assets sold to bolster the Balance Sheet. We now seem to be going into this capital intensive commitment with a very weak (falling) share price and a Market Cap that is too small to attract Institutional Investors. Less than £100K is off their radar. I just hope the Board start to share their thinking soon or else I wonder if a sale of Dokwe at DFS level is the best (only) way forward.

[charles clore] 11/9/2024 16:33

Biggles - I think much depends on how the rising gold price affects the bottom line. The company must be thinking the same. Kerim is not stupid. He must have seen the enormous potential in Dokwe and almost bitten their arm off so if I were a betting man I'd be resting my case on the rising strength of gold and silver and counting the chickens in the same scenario.

[plasybryn] 11/9/2024 15:46

Correct biggles. Some misunderstanding being stated this afternoon me thinks.

[soulsauce] 11/9/2024 15:31

Looking at the share price it looks like you are being softened up for a 3c asx listing.

JD Cyprus is like Monty Pythons parrot, unfortunately.

[shortarm] 11/9/2024 15:01

Did everyone know we had three licenses at project Leopard?

[jaynesdad] 11/9/2024 14:52

Being taken out, at least as far as the Dokwe asset if not in AAUs entirety, is what I was alluding to earlier. As they have pointed out it is in an apparently advanced stage in the development curve, but value is still there to be added relatively easily. Tavsan is also a standalone, there even the plant is developed but of course that can only be sold with others agreement. Selling the entire company is surely hard due to some of the diverse projects, many of which only have value if key personal were retained. Could a stripped down AAU retain them and focus on exploration?
What is going to happen with Cyprus do we think, after all that is only actually an investment, AAU being simply a shareholder?

[bigglesbingham] 11/9/2024 14:23

Personally I can see a logic in paying dividend to shareholders to bring different shareholder on board and create interest. I also see logic in how come you raise money to give out. But KS did say he's looking to ring fence income from Tavsan. However massive increased shareholders now so dividend will be lower if paid. The company has become a different animal than it was with a much bigger upside but will this transpire to increased shareprice. We will have to see how they raise money for Dowke. I can see us being taken out tbh. Hopefully with significantly higher shareprice.

[shortarm] 11/9/2024 14:20

Indeed, dividends to resume to AAU from Zenit.

[shortarm] 11/9/2024 14:20

Agreed, paying dividends from borrowing makes no sense..Many companies have outstanding debt and pay dividends from free cash!.

[bigglesbingham] 11/9/2024 14:17

One must look at terminology AAU receives dividends from Zenit relating to their share of profit. Dividends to shareholders are a different kettle of fish.

[jaynesdad] 11/9/2024 14:16

Quite possible Shortarm, which I may well have missed so thanks.
However it doesn't alter the fact that borrowing to pay a dividend to shareholders makes little sense. What does it achieve as it decreases net assets? Its the sort of thing that a private company does to allow half a dozen shareholders to line their pockets before the wind up occurs! The founding family of Wilko springs to mind.
Now before you get your knickers in a twist I'm not suggesting that is the case here.
We'll see if the dividends ever transpire, I still don't think they will unless it is quite a nominal amount. I cant see them starting unless they can be continued. And if they are continued then how does Dokwe get funded?

[shortarm] 11/9/2024 14:07

AISC 1140 for JUST Dokwe North and done at 2,000 per oz gold!

Pre-Feasibility Study ("PFS") financial model update on the Reserves at Dokwe North provide a post-tax NPV10 of US$160 million and an IRR of 41% at a gold price of US$2,000/oz.*

PFS outlines a mine life of c.13 years producing at a rate of c.60,000 ounces of gold per annum (up to 76,000 ounces p.a.) from a single, staged, open-pit with processing primarily via CIL, at an all-in sustaining cost ("AISC") of US$1,144 per ounce.

[shortarm] 11/9/2024 13:37

JD, didn't they say that 20m loan (4.7 to AAU) with a one year repayment holiday was to allow dividends to resume?Seems Ozaltin are a reasonable and cooperative partner?

[jaynesdad] 11/9/2024 13:33

I agree with a lot of that jaf.
Sener himself has backtracked in recent interviews about post Tavsan dividends. Now there are logical reasons for that
1) AAU isn't that flush with cash for working capital, bearing mind it has to eke out the dwindling cash position it still retains from the Ozaltin deal. AAU no longer controls any productive asset whatsoever that currently provides a cash flow.
2)AAU, even in concert with Proccea, is outvoted in the Zenit JV. AAU (and Proccea) will only received dividends from Zenit if Ozaltin agrees. If Ozaltin decides to divert surplus JV funds solely to development of other assets held by the JV then AAU is in no position to force the issue.
3) The enlarged AAU is spending money in Zimbabwe. What happens if AAU runs out of working capital? Even if it is allowed a dividend from the current JV why would they then restrict their working capital by giving its shareholders dividends? In other words what business sense is there in distributing dividends and then having to borrow from the market at current interest rates?

My working assumption at the moment is that there will not be dividends paid to AAU shareholders for several years, even though Sener keeps claiming that AAU is dividend paying. In fact it would be poor management for AAU to pay them as it could well mean taking on debt at the company level to provide working capital.