Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[jaynesdad] 14/5/2023 16:08

Few months ago I seem to remember a sweepstake of peak and end of year prices. Think I was seen as a pessimist with around 3.9p & 3.6p. Which is looking optimistic. Anyone want to review and subsequently revise theirs...?!

[professor pettigrew] 14/5/2023 15:07

Succinctly put konil.

Only bit I would differ on, as a contrarian, is the referral to lth's unloading some or all to crystallise a profit.

Surely with AAU having "a very strong chance for magnificent long-term investment returns" this is the time to continue to accumulate and hold for even bigger returns going forward?

Not a criticism, just a view.

[konil] 14/5/2023 10:43

soul, i know we differ on the cash thing, but overall we agree (short term pain aside) its a great little company. hope soon to be not quite so little.

[soulsauce] 14/5/2023 10:27

Good post konil, lots of fair points in there.

[konil] 14/5/2023 10:16

aau management:
given the size of the management team at aau, they (ie. ks) probably have enough on the plate to juggle with. if the number of projects grows they will need more aau management input. its all very well having projects run by other management teams but at some point the overarching oversight that is required becomes too much for the aau management given its size, and especially more so when most of the projects are very early stage and not well oiled established producing mines.

cash pile / venus:
as for the cash pile, its a good security to have during these particularly politically and economically uncertain times. the idea that its dwindling away may be correct but its a very slow burn and better to have it as security than spend it. there probably is scope to use some of it.

that scope may be sufficient to buyout the venus interest or perhaps at least to get majority control (maybe aau already has majority control but could increase its stake). ks's problem then would be the management of that entity and i doubt he has the capacity to do it himself, so will need a new management team (i'm assuming the existing venus management would not stay on with minority control and the shots being called by aau). but even that scenario might be stymied currently in that aau/ks does not have sufficient management capacity to even make that move.

(whilst the ipo might have been delayed due to market conditions at some point, the length of time that excuse has been used makes me think its now just a crutch. if it were in turkey, ok, still difficult to get external financing, but its in cyprus.)

ozaltin / tavsan:
as regards the ozaltin deal, i still reckon it was a good move to shed majority ownership to an indigenous entity for political reasons, more so one of the size and hopefully clout of ozaltin. we will never get close enough to know all the details and whether the amount paid by ozaltin (cash and salinbas funding) was a fair deal - but as an example of clout it may well be that their clout will help with the current tavsan issue (and we may never know if that is so in this paricular case).

outlook:
near term it remains disappointing that even with au at over $2k the share price continues not just to stagnate but dwindle.
for those in the red very painful. for those lth's in profit there is the luxury of that buffer and the option to offload some/all and crystallise some profit - but

given the position of aau

- with its cash
- revenues (very important that tavsan progresses to production quickly to bolster revenues near term)
- longer term portfolio of projects importantly including salinbas still funded with ozaltin cash

it has to have a very strong chance for magnificent long term investment returns...that 'long term' bit probably why the market is currently shunning aau.



bwdik, and all imo, dyor etc. etc.
back to sleep, zzzzzzzzzzzz.....

[chinese investor] 14/5/2023 06:50

Good Morning

[soulsauce] 13/5/2023 15:46

Thanksamillion you are quite happy with the chunk of cash sat in the bank losing value and not getting valued by the market, I am not sure many others will share that view.
Like I said there is plenty to leave a very decent buffer and still have invested proactively in some other venture or royalty.
Ariana is or was a growth company and you need to speculate to accumulate.

I think we can all agree that the status quo with the Cyprus assets is unfathomable.
Either the assets are worth taking forward or they are not. Waiting for the Venus mgt to be active enough to get an ipo away is a nonsense and I wonder how long it will be before they are going to need another bail out.
I think it is time shareholders were updated on this.

[zangdook] 13/5/2023 15:37

Apliki's all very well, but they "had to" drop it, remember?

[dixi] 13/5/2023 15:22

As a potential use for the cash, how about Apliki? Either it's worth having or it isn't. It cannot just be a vanity IPO thing for the crew at Venus surely?

[temujiin] 13/5/2023 13:52

There is little value looking at the past Ozaltin JV, it was a judgment call based on expectation of what the deal could bring investors. 95% of posters were 100% in favour and as I recall there was not a single vote against the JV, even my 3m votes casted against were, according to Hargreaves, too late to be registered.

Looking fwd AAU remind me of the years before the JV deal, the share price doing little and lots of not unreasonable complaining. That said, we have actual proof of AAU/Kerim doing a good job of adding value to the company and I've seen nothing to suggest that wont happen again, it's just that things take a long time.

I have little doubt Tasvan will get sorted, although maybe not until end of Q3 to Q4.

Salinbas I'm yet to be convinced will be another Hot Maden but there is a good chance it could be.

Cyprus assets are taking too long and Kerim can and should be taking a more proactive approach there. This is imo somewhere criticism is quite justified at KS and the board.

Overall though, AAU are a solid, profitable, cash rich company with decent prospects...given time. But you have to be patient, which obviously isn't always easy.

[professor pettigrew] 13/5/2023 13:50

I don't mean this to sound flippant by any means, but given that people will, and always willdo, need a hedge against inflation, geopolitical problems and other things, then couldn't the BOD do worse than consider investing some of the cash pile into BTC?

Microstrategy have invested billions of US$ in it and BTC is the leading asset this year, despite the recent fall in price.

Just a thought, and taking into account BTC's volaility at least it would be better than leaving the whole pile just sitting there.

Of course, if the price of BTC fell back and stayed there it wouldn't be such a clever decision, but it's just a thought.

[thanksamillion] 13/5/2023 13:25

Nah!

I am quite happy that there is a nice lump in the bank.

Petty sure there are better bargains to be had today, (if you know where to look) than there were a couple of years ago. Plus extra cash would be expended to move new assets forward.

What would assets bought then be worth today.

Cashless Ariana........no thanks.

[plasybryn] 13/5/2023 13:18

One would have thought they were spoilt for choice for undervalued Co's with good assets and perhaps struggling for cash in this market. Cash is king in these sorts of markets but we seem to have failed to capitalise on it leaving it to be eroded by inflation. But more to the point the Co. have never even taken the time to set out with any clarity how they intend to use it. As a result investors can't see any compelling reason to invest. Even the assets lack clear timeframes to value creation. A simple Gantt Chart would assist significantly in this regard

[soulsauce] 13/5/2023 12:52

It is comforting PP but they could still leave themselves a nice buffer with the cash we have and have invested a nice chunk in 'something'.
I kind of think the mkt assigns a discount for that very reason.

[professor pettigrew] 13/5/2023 11:49

Well, I do have to agree with soulsauce there. Perhaps those who have the ear of Kerim and maybe other board members could start applying some pressure for change.

We are in the situation where we have probably the finest guy at the helm for finding gold/silver and an expert in his field, who lacks the business acumen and ruthlessness to push the company forward to maximise shareholder value.

The cash position is both frustrating and yet comforting it is there in the case of unforeseen circumstances, and amazingly represents almost half the current mcap.

[soulsauce] 13/5/2023 11:35

Yep Temujiin and JD called it right.

I was certain Kerim had something in mind for the chunk of money to replace the production lost in the giveaway. But it pretty soon became obvious he hadn't. There were lots of ways in which that money could have been put to good use given Kerim's contacts and experience. Instead it resides in some bank losing value and totally discounted in the mkt cap valuation.

[plasybryn] 13/5/2023 10:15

What was disappointing was the Co. apparently took no outside guidance to verify the deal represented appropriate value, notwithstanding their lack of Corporate Board expertise. To think this wasn't necessary was imo very naive. This is another reason i have been asking for the Board to be strengthened. As you say past history but the Co need to accept at times they need expert input.

[jbravo2] 13/5/2023 09:34

I suspect it’s a minority view JD. But I agree. There’s little doubt it was a terrible deal.

[jaynesdad] 13/5/2023 09:20

Temujiin
I agree, I have written many times of my dislike of the terms of the give away nature of current JV which, in my defence, I expressed from day one in late 2019. But it's become ancient history now, it's done. Many of us are still here despite reservations! I just hope lessons were learned. I think you have to take the view that Kerim Sener was still a young man with a technical rather than business orientated background. From what I know of him he will have learned and learned quickly, and will now be far more effective in the corporate roles. I find less excuse for at least one of the other board members who, again in my view, should have had sufficient experience to have been more astute - unless, of course, the deal was necessary for continued unencumbered operations in Turkey. I know many will hold different views.

[temujiin] 12/5/2023 21:50

JaynesDad, that was always the risk with Ozaltin, the loss of future revenue from Kizil, and of effective control, were always the biggest downsides to the deal that I was concerned about.

AAU do have the sale cash in hand but haven't so far made much meaningful use of it which is disappointing. Ozaltin may be enjoying the profits of AAU's and Proccea's labour, but they wont be blind to the future profits that Tas and Sal could/will bring. They just seem a bit too sloth-like, which is frustrating, but not unusual with large companies.

I suspect reasonable progress is bimbling along at Salinbas, but atm we are unsure if its a blow the doors off or a damp squib.


Patience paid off for me before with AAU, I'm reasonably confident it will again.

[cinoib] 12/5/2023 13:22

Thanksamillion, likewise as you can't talk sense and see wood for trees and share price down again or is 2.65 ask higher than 2.75. Or did my maths teacher tell me wrong. Keeps this up by summer will be 1.75 ask.

[jaynesdad] 12/5/2023 09:19

I agree that Proccea were/are a great partner but that the jury is out on Ozaltin. The problem I have with the latter is that not only do they appear to be doing very little, if anything, to advance projects, are taking the lions share of the profits from the productive assets both now and in the immediate future, but worst of all they are in an unassailable position in the JV. AAU and Proccea have a combined 47% which leaves Ozaltin with 53% and can essentially dictate if they want to. I never have been remotely comfortable with the loss of control. it is also hard not to see Cyprus as a bit of a fiasco, I want some firm action there, some attitude. Ariana are great explorers but are suspect in their business decisions, that aspect of the Board function needs change.

[soulsauce] 12/5/2023 08:49

Good to know that TW (lol) knows more than the company, it's shareholders and most importantly the population around Tavsan that it will 'definitely' come on stream 'soon' ;-))

[bigglesbingham] 12/5/2023 08:24

22 degree sat in Manchester and sunny .