Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[thanksamillion] 12/8/2021 09:04

Like Ariana, my carrots are just emerging, but I know they will crop well in time.

[kaos3] 12/8/2021 08:56

I hope I did not stirr too much so I ll continue when I am at it. I would like for AAU to set certain self imposed rules and KPI.

I would like them to set

EBITDA/debt
free cash flow "distribution" guideline (divi, production, expansion)
reporting standard (frequency and min standard)
hedging and storing produce for later sell
JV contract bullet points disclosures (full governance and financials (were reported to a degree))
risks management policies to mitigate risks from geo positioning like taxes, capital export restrictions, forced sell at the state currency and price

etc....

go and tender your carrots and stop dreaming kaos lol

[bigglesbingham] 11/8/2021 17:50

Sentiment is a funny thing sometimes rational thought goes out of window.

[kaos3] 11/8/2021 17:17

it is all coming at the same time - share weakness, divi, Ozaltin impact (at least it is time to be so in the next few months), double capacity of processing ....

so I buy

but remain sceptical in the long term !!

I am glad drilling info was passed up the pyramid structure. I fully expect that JV news will start being reported not as they happen but first in Qs, then HY intervals etc ....

just wait lol

but do not take me serious - as I am just a poor gardener

[konil] 11/8/2021 17:12

kaos, i'm surprised that some here who seem to know the detail and how strong the story is have nonetheless been reducing (significantly) their holdings. this in spite of a near term 7% divi. its no surprise the share price has been weak.

[bigglesbingham] 11/8/2021 16:43

Hope that's not referring to me kaos?

[kaos3] 11/8/2021 16:39

TA graph looks like sh11t btw in a stark contrast with the operational performance - so I buy

and I do not listen to some who claim to be constant buyers - should be at the reporting level imho ;) marketing effort and the truth at the same time

[kaos3] 11/8/2021 16:36

I was in tem & linz camp - but I am adding right now btw

I followed KS with his pet licence into palm and did nicely. palm developed into "aau vibe" so I sold there and am coming back here.

why - all those promises are about to happen, people selling due to being fed up with it all, more safety here if SHTF etc etc

strange that insiders are not active in buying some more shares, strange that Ozaltin and II are not buying some .....

[konil] 11/8/2021 16:34

plasybryn, imo there is a new game afoot with the gp due to basel3.

with the basel3 rules due to apply to uk banks from jan 2022 (where the lbma in concert with comex in the u.s. operate their manipulation activities) 'the manipulators of the gp' for want of a better definition are having to scramble to unwind their positions. i dont understand how they are doing it, its too complex and designed to obfuscate and hide identities, but by using otc derivatives which are not regulated and hence data not readily available they continue, for the time being, to ply their trade.

the recent sharp down trend may be a result of these agonised writhings, reminiscent of the dying convulsions of a mortally wounded creature.

in a recent (6 aug 2021) article for king world news written by alasdair macleod he provides reasoned argument with supporting data for
- the suppression of the gp for 50 years since the ending of the gold standard (which at a stroke made all currencies fiat and therefore a direct governmental competitor against gold)
- how the coming denouement arising from basel3 will impact the gold market.

imo it is very well worth reading, and although there is much which is easily digestable i dont pretend to understand it entirely. the details are interesting because they explain, better than before, what is going on but two macro points that stand out to me are;

- the global derivatives market at $582tn is the target for the bis's basel3 rules in an effort to reduce systemic risk in the global financial markets. in this context the $834bn otc gold derivatives market barely registers and any negative impact on it is just collateral damage in a much bigger undertaking.
collateral damage for participants in the otc gold derivatives game, 'the manipulators', but a potentially splendid outcome for those wishing an end to gp manipulation.

- the level and duration of duplicity and public deception perpetrated not only by financial market participants such as banks but also by quasi-governmental entities such as central banks and treasury departments in hiding the true nature of the workings of the gold market is staggering and shameful (so what's new!).


with the level of qe that has gone on due to covid (adding to and dwarfing the amounts in the gfc) the fiat currency system especially the usd is under huge strain which is very positive for gold.


all the above is a very long (sorry) lead in to aau, where if things at aau continue as at present which it seems they will, i.e. much good news but not of the type to energise the sp, then it may be the gp which comes to the rescue and provides impetus in the near term.

[kaos3] 11/8/2021 16:29

an observation on "our" predictions (on relevant prices) and its predicting power in months even years on f.e.:

- Basel III
- first divi promise
- Ozaltin JV efect

and the middle term effect of great operational efficiency and good drilling results - effects on the SP

makes me think hmmmmm

VS use of TA & psychology, behavioural science ..... and its value in investing

makes me think hmmmmm again

how much weighting should I employ in my investing using all above and similar in the future

[bigglesbingham] 11/8/2021 15:47

I always got feeling he's looking at min 12 years mine life but he obviously cannot state that. This is developing nicely . Good gold results in Cyprus is expected based on what has been said and the way they have said it, tarsvan, salinbas drilling in couple months , dividend , new investment fund. All backed by cash in the bank. Yes very nice position. Shareprice has been hit due to sentiment and arguably the message not being delivered to a wider audience. Investors know the story however and it's a good one.

[bo doodak] 11/8/2021 14:21

Always had the feeling Kiziltepe would continue to grow and will grow even more over time, just from what KS has said over the years. It may be one possible reason KS felt the JV deal was good, as our share of an ever growing pie increases.

[plasybryn] 11/8/2021 14:14

Anyone hoping to attend the AGM next week?

[plasybryn] 11/8/2021 14:10

If we could now see gold recover strongly as well, we may return to more sensible prices fairly quickly. Gold reacting to the CPI numbers now. We do seem oversold ahead of the AGM and special payment announcement.
USD inflation linked gilt yields going a teeny bit up
hxxps://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield

[plasybryn] 11/8/2021 14:09

Well if they could extend the life of mine at Kiziltepe, which todays results again suggest, there could be a nice overlap with Tavsan, with both mines in full production. Bring on Salinbas (accelerated into production with Ozaltin financial backing) and imagine three mines all in production together. 130,000 ozs per annum plus silver plus copper would be very nice. Is that a pipe dream?

[xow98] 11/8/2021 12:22

johnswan193, if they were caught out, one would have to ask who their professional advisors were on the tax implications, assuming they had professional advisors.

[mcmather] 11/8/2021 11:51

Two of the intercepts highlighted – see under – were from drill hole KTP-D08-21:

94.6m to 96.6m – 8.37g/t Au & 50.0g/t Ag

110.5m to 119.0m – 2.16g/t Au & 57.2g/t Ag

The map in this shows its location;

There’s quite a bit in that RNS:

“these results confirm that the Arzu structure itself is at least 2.5km long”.

“the Derya structure clearly represents a splay off the main NW trend of the Arzu structure, which interestingly appears to carry typically higher grades than Arzu North”; of possible interest re the intercepts referred to above.

“there is an area of not fully quantified resource potential in the area encompassing Arzu North, Derya and the Ceylan veins. We have named this important resource development area ‘The Parallelogram’.

There’s loads of the stuff at Kiziltepe; get drilling and get the second mill up and running.

[johnswan193] 11/8/2021 11:24

Still a hangover here regarding the dividend issue. I sympathise with long term shareholders, but this remains a long term investment and the fundamentals are extremely attractive imo.

I honestly believe management themselves were caught out with the tax implications in Turkey for the divi but have been reluctant to admit it. It is what it is.
Shareholders suffer the opportunity cost of getting the full divi now and investing it here or elsewhere, but the share price has been punished enough already for this and that provides further opportunity for those with time on their hands.

Patience required.

[xow98] 11/8/2021 11:00

Ariana – More Drilling Results, This Time From Arzu Central: BUY, I will almost certainly be doing so
BY NIGEL SOMERVILLE, THE DEPUTY SHERIFF OF AIM

Drat and double drat. There I was yesterday thinking that shares in AIM-listed Gold (and Silver) producer in Turkey Ariana Resources (AAU) were incredibly cheap at 4.4p and contemplating another purchase – but then other things got in the way and I didn’t add to my over-sized holding. And so today we got another round of drilling results, this time from Arzu Central, and the stock is up 6% to 4.65p. Somebody obviously likes the news…..

[thanksamillion] 11/8/2021 10:58

Agree Linz22/Temujiin, to a point, the drilling todate all relate to an asset of which AAU own only 24% so we cannot expect any share price fireworks from these. But its all grist for the mill and as most agree the share price is supported to some extent by continuing finds which will provide a steady stream of fund going forward.
The real money will be made here when and if Cyprus( will be 50% owned) and Kosovo (85% from recollection) start to return some useful drill results.
In the mean time we sit and wait or in some cases trade...all to be expected.

Edit.
I forgot to mention Salinbas, which although only 24% owned by AAU could be so huge that we get a significant early boost.

[temujiin] 11/8/2021 10:18

Good post Linz. I reduced my 3m plus by 2 thirds a long while back but am happy to hold the remainder for now. Ozaltin could and probably will be a benefit to AAU but 'so far' have disappointed. Equally those who said 'imagine what Kerim will do with $35m, it'll be wonderful', well again so far that's been disappointing.

AAU are still a good profitable cash rich company, great prospects too, but so far it's lacking a meaning % AAU controlled asset to get excited about. That's the major problem imo.

[linz22] 11/8/2021 09:31

Revisiting the JV deal, Temujiin has been proven to right in pretty much everything he's said thus far. I agreed with the voicing of caution, on a reduction to just 23% of the asset, and it was appalling how that opinion was immediately and automatically shot down by certain other posters at the time. Though I didn't partake in the folly of voting against it, as the sale to Ozaltin was not 'wrong' in itself, just a change of strategy by the company in order to expedite the project. To get things moving, so to speak, which albeit hasn't had the desired effect to date...

But, talking of changing strategy, I'd been buying into AAU from around 2p and had until recently always been intending to double my overall holding - to pay my pension, perhaps. Instead, last week I sold half my AAU stock, as the share price fell, and followed the advice of the poster above by buying Bitcoin. The reason being, this stock is going nowhere fast (like practically every other miner/producer) while cryptos are flying right now..

That said, Biggles is absolutely spot on in pointing out that many of those who continually whinge about the becalmed share price are only looking to profitably sell out, anyway. Meanwhile, those of a longer term mentality in AAU might similarly aspire to own a material percentage of the company, and demonstrate their preparedness to increase that holding by topping up on the appetizing dips.

After all, that's the reason why I've maintained half of my original holding. For the long term, and as per AAU fundamentals, particularly their remarkably prudent AISC (and Silver production) ,there is no better value in the sector, nor possibly even on the market.

[2vdm] 11/8/2021 09:03

Agree, Biggles and Thanksa. We need to be patient. AAU is now on a more secure footing.They aren't the best at updating shareholders, but Kerim is determined to turn this into a mid-cap and so far appears to have made the right moves. A shame that the sector is out of favour, but it will come back