Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[jaf1948] 06/7/2020 16:12

I think it is many sellers. I am a LTH and yet I doubled my holding when the news of the MoU came out, especially due to the thought of a special dividend. I am sure I was not the only one which is why the share price went up from the low 2s to over 4.

With the delays and now the statement last week that it will be almost another 2 months before a firm agreement, there is little chance of another imminent rise or imminent dividend hence many of the new investors have sold or are selling.

[actonovator] 06/7/2020 15:53

well one thing for sure there is a relentless seller behind the scenes - 3.86 to buy!

[plasybryn] 06/7/2020 15:42

Our price often tends to track the overall movement in the gold price. I don't think it will be long before we hit $1800 per oz gold. With our results and preliminaries due soon, investors will have proof that our P/E is low. Coupled to an increasing gold price surely the pressure over the next month is to travel north.

[plasybryn] 06/7/2020 15:30

Is there any chance of you sharing a chart for AAU with us rock wood? I like the sound of your prediction and your interesting view on the overall strength. Cheers

[pharmoutcomeszzz] 06/7/2020 15:15

As a holder of 7 years, I put myself in the long term holder category. I sold 20% of my holding last Thursday, just because I had the jitters of ‘too many eggs in one basket’. That 20% I will reinvest into AAU over the next month now that I know the JV is confirmed with only minor changes. I guess it comes down to what is short term / long term. 2 months is micro term and, on the balance of probability, I will be very happy to wait until the end of the year for 6-7p. The divi doesn’t interest me much apart from the fact it could bring in some major fund holders. I am more keen that the money we make from the deal is put into Kerim’s hands and back him to implement ASAP the plans he probably has already in place for driving the share price upwards.

[kirbs4] 06/7/2020 14:28

Just to clear up any misunderstanding, i have simply been trying to consider all other stances. My intention wasnt to create a negative impression of Kerim who i trust. I just see the potential for many new'ish holders from the last few months seeing the immediate upside the invested for being a slower burner now that MOU not finalised, potentially record results delayed and special divi potentially next year now, thats all, and it is likely many will therefore see better opportunities elsewhere in the immediate future (1m/2m). Not everyone will have the same long term faith/vision that i have had/still have.

[rookwood52] 06/7/2020 14:12

appreciate all the views and constructive inputs here, me donna understand fundementals at all however,

my 2pennyworth - AAU hit heavy resistance at 4 around mid May. Normally I would expect a volatile share would have taken a much bigger hit than AAU has, and not hang about in the resistance zone, as it has. It also spiked through it on July 1st.

This shows to me momentum and strength, so I am dipping my toe in here. Worst case retrace is to 3.5, for further addition. Clear sailing then to 10 IMO

[thanksamillion] 06/7/2020 14:12

The old saying "Act in haste, repent at leisure" comes to mind.

[pharmoutcomeszzz] 06/7/2020 14:10

No where have I said it’s unfair to disagree with me. What’s the point of a BB without differing views? Please refrain from misrepresentation though.

[8rad] 06/7/2020 13:48

Is it that Kerim is just too laid back maybe too conservative or maybe just too young to worry about deadlines but what about us! I was surprised that no renegotiating of terms was discussed...maybe he is just too nice.

[kirbs4] 06/7/2020 13:31

Nothing is grossly unfair if it is a shareholders opinion, more than one shareholder in fact. You may not agree, but if its unfair to disagree with you i feel you'd be better off in an echo chamber. Important to also remember that we are speculating as to why the share price is languishing, there is no argument to say it isnt, so when you or i are feeling very positive about the future, its time to open our minds as to what is leading others to jump ship.

[pharmoutcomeszzz] 06/7/2020 13:24

This country is fast becoming a moaners paradise, where everyone uses extremes of language to unfairly represent a much more complex position. I am firmly in the ‘silver surfer’ view on this board, wanting the JV to be finalised so we can quickly move ahead and realise some value in our investment. However, to say there is a ‘general lack of urgency’ is grossly unfair without evidence to support this. You only need to watch KS body language when asked about the JV to know he is extremely frustrated and I suspect when the deal is signed and the money available and the speed of progress again comes very much more within KS ‘s control, things will happen very quickly and very positively.

[thanksamillion] 06/7/2020 13:19

Gold going straight up $1800 here we come.

[charles clore] 06/7/2020 13:01

Last week's gap is filled. Time to move up imho.

[dixi] 06/7/2020 13:00

.....then I just checked the price of gold, surely that will build some excitement here in the short term, rising tides and all that etc :-)

[kirbs4] 06/7/2020 12:48

Agree Tigerchris, and add to this the delayed results. Its back to my point, there are no major negatives, just a general lack of urgency around the points that over the last few months were probably the reasons for people buying in. I imagine a fair number are happy with a small gain, invest elsewhere and maybe evrn have time to come back with their profit before AAU get round to realising the benefots of their spinning plates.

[plasybryn] 06/7/2020 12:35

I don't see the Special payment being next year. I think they should still be able to sort that this side of Christmas. I think we investors should make our wishes known when we get the soon to be held online shareholder meeting if the Co. doesn't already state their desire to achieve a 2020 payout. From a tease in Nov. 2019 to say Q4-2020, is long enough in my book for shareholders to wait.

[tigerchris1] 06/7/2020 12:30

I suspect that one reason for the stalling of the share price is the reduced imminent expectation of a dividend. I think that when the MOU was announced some, including mysel, expected a payout in the summer of this year. Kerim`s interview suggests that a special dividend will come but news of it will be late this year so the payment itself will not be until into 2021. For those of us who have been around a long time we will have to, and can wait, but there no longer seems to be a hurry. With the final MOU deal announcement being a few months off and the prospect of a dividend even further off, although we are undervalued and although there will be a steady rise there will be no rush yet.

[plasybryn] 06/7/2020 12:15

The share price has done well since Oct. 2018 (look at the chart) but I agree we all are expecting more and can't quite understand why last week's RNS naming our mega large suitor didn't set a rocket under us. After all they have carried out extensive due diligence and continue to like what they see, so how more de-risked can we now be. With access to capital, clout and no doubt so much more from such an accomplished & sizeable player in so many relevant fields.
Turkey has been analysed as a great place to operate, so I don't buy that argument. The Resource and Reserve as Kiziltepe is being enhanced and I agree some may want to see more progress there with a longer life of mine. Perhaps it's because we only have one producing mine. If that is the case, the achievement of an EIA for Tavsan which can't be that far off should address that issue. In the old days it was worries about cash and equity raises. Well that one has certainly been put to bed. Perhaps its the speed of progress. Salinbas and the other assets in the Hot Gold Corridor always seem to grind on and to be fair we haven't had any eye popping grades yet. But now we hopefully have the weight of Ozaltin behind us that will hopefully change albeit in 2021. Being a big successful Co. I'm sure they will want a quick return on their investment. A DFS following on from drilling & resource estimation for Salinbas could add significantly to our valuation if things go well. And then of course the E.I.A.
Finally Kerim needs to strategically set out how he plans to use his realised cash to excite investors. Is Cyprus going to be something special? Or will there be new additions. As we stand I'm sure there are still a lot of stale bulls who have been invested for a long time and want some action; some return. Perhaps Kerim can satisfy them with the one off special payment followed by a confirmed dividend strategy, but if he can't I suspect the overhang of both short, medium & long term holders will continue to restrain the speed of advancement. I'm convinced the potential is there to open Pandora's box, with three potential elephants - Salinbas, Cyprus, and even a high grade Underground at Kiziltepe. Kerim needs to express the story with more strategic and visionary focus imo.

[dixi] 06/7/2020 11:34

The structure at AAU does feel quite complex, that may be a discouraging factor. Admittedly the share price has risen a fair degree, but the notion that investors are not that interested in AAU has been quoted for many years (same old sentiment). Slow and steady is the way here. Maybe once the new JV completes KS can enlighten the market to some 100% Ariana blue sky?

[claretandbluedave] 06/7/2020 11:09

Well after all the hype about the MoU it looks like its not done anything for the SP, as we now sit lower than before last weeks announcement. For some reason this share doesn't seem to get on people's radar unlike other small miners. Maybe its the complex company set up/partner arrangement and maybe its because of the location. Either way its not exactly creating huge interest. I understand the Covid situation hasn't helped matters, but some of us aren't getting any younger and I've been around here for a few years now. Anyway the sun has just come out, first time in over a week so maybe time for a coffee in the garden and keep hoping.

[kirbs4] 06/7/2020 10:46

It was deliberately worded "Longer" rather than "Long".Emphasis on the fact that todays market presents an awful lot of short term opportunity. "Longer" means longer than many other opportunities.

[bigglesbingham] 06/7/2020 10:15

Point is it will come in a very short timescale imho. I'm trying to say that this level will be in our mirrors come six months. The fact that I'm saying I'm adding is just effectively saying I'm putting my money where my mouth is and not ramping a stock and hoping for best. Cheers

[renniks2016] 06/7/2020 10:15

Depends on what you class as long term, if waiting till December for all the finer details and dividends, is long term then happy days, in my eyes that is not at all.

[coachsailor] 06/7/2020 10:14

And back to AAU.

I can not help but wonder where the shares currently available are coming from. I have just topped up another 200,000 at 4.00p.
Since my first AAU purchases back in 2009 at 3,25 after meeting Kerim, have gradually topped up bringing my average buying price down below 2p. So since my last buy last Nov was reluctant to buy more as the price rose. However, I agree with Biggles that with what we now know even at 4.00p it is well worth pouring a bit more in the pot.

The mystery to me is why would anyone sell at this price as even if looking for a quick short term return, hard pushed to find it elsewhere.