Argentex Share Discussion Threads

[earwacks] 26/6/2024 15:50

OIS. Kinda got that got that from the presentation when they blurted out no dividend for 36 months. Its going to be a long slow haul, partnerships could help a bit.

[ohisay] 26/6/2024 13:37

Singer had a note out this morning saying that they wont be back to profitability till full year 2026.

[cambridge130] 21/6/2024 08:52

Another 4% lump knocked off the price. If you'd have sold at 80p when I said these are a crock, you'd have saved another 66% slide - that's another two thirds loss on top for you Yump

[yump] 19/6/2024 18:10

Some of us have grown up enough not to post on a thread, when we’ve nothing to say.

[johndoe23] 19/6/2024 17:32

I'm sorry your posts are so informative

[yump] 19/6/2024 17:06

I'm going to Billy Hills to put a bet on against JohnDoe23 posting something that's more than one line.

@Cambridge130

Top marks for coming back and saying "I told you so". Must make a note to follow your every post from now on.

[74tom] 19/6/2024 15:58

earwacks, if they can't stump up the required regulatory capital then they won't be able to trade. The demeanour of the interim CFO was very revealing, I strongly suspect that under the surface there are serious problems here.

I'd estimate that the recent placing gave them around £2.8m net of fees, so they had headroom of around ~£5m afterwards. However, they are only forecasting low single digit EBITDA on mid £40m revenue, that's 3% range to me, so just over £1m. Bear in mind that they signed material office leases in the last couple of years, none of which goes through the EBITDA line;

"In May 2020, the Group signed a ten-year lease for its head office premises at Argyll Street, London. In February 2023, the Group signed a nine-year lease for an additional floor for its head office at Argyll Street, London and in February 2023, the Group signed a five-year lease for its office in the Netherlands."

These costs were £1.5m last year, so could wipe out any EBITDA margin & result in negligible cash generation.

Cutting headcount might help a bit but will surely damage morale & likely reduce revenue unless the remaining staff step up. However, they also mentioned re-aligning sales commissions - how can you expect staff to step up if you reduce their variable package? Hmmm.

Turning around a ship like this with capital constraints will be very very challenging, not saying it can't be done, however I'd say the chances are slim if yesterday's call is anything to go by.

Will look in again when the next newsflow is issued

[earwacks] 19/6/2024 15:07

Under what 20p? They have no debt , but can’t imagine they would get a realistic loan. With the amount the board have invested I think there is a possibility of being taken private. Clearly investors have been the last consideration here by the previous incumbents or their successors

[johndoe23] 19/6/2024 14:22

This will be under before too long

[hopeful holder] 19/6/2024 13:38

I decided to sell out and wait for a better buy in position which may mean I buy in higher as I'd like to see this a little more stable. I do think they have a good opportunity for this looking at a riskier share.

[silverlandfinance] 19/6/2024 13:26

I am concerned that the chief officers of the company do not portray a clear vision of how to move the company forward.
The only way out is if the company's trading improves substantially or there is a takeover by another compant.

[74tom] 19/6/2024 13:06

@silverland, I'm not convinced that any bank would be prepared to provide an RCF for such a purpose. It's inherently risky, as presumably the business would only use the facility when conditions were volatile.

Alpha Group ran into trouble at the start of covid and had to do an emergency fund raise to resolve a cash flow issue, if an RCF was an option then a highly profitable £500m market cap (at the time) would have had one in place.

I'm sure there would be 'specialist' financial entities out there who could help out, but they will charge a small fortune to compensate for the risk.

[silverlandfinance] 19/6/2024 12:46

74tom
Oh dear.
Your analysis is noted.
The cash requirement is substantial, unless the company can obtain bank finance to smooth over the fluctuations. This should not be difficult if it is trading well.

[74tom] 19/6/2024 12:13

Oh dear oh dear.

Yesterday's presentation at 8-10 mins / P13 of the slide deck revealed just how precarious a position this business is in...

The gap between net cash & cash required for regulatory purposes (essentially ringfenced cash), plunged at the end of March to just £2.1m from £7.9m at the end of Feb...

The CFO basically confirmed that the placing funds were needed to provide breathing space.

How far do £3.25m gross proceeds go though? Especially when regulatory requirements can increase by ~20% / £2.2m in the space of a month?

This is from the FY21 final results, when cash balance were £38m (£49m in FY20)

"Cash includes cash held as collateral with banking and brokerage counterparties of £11.6m (2020: £26.5m)"

So they used to have headroom of £20-£30m...

Shocking.

[silverlandfinance] 19/6/2024 11:10

Sentiment has turned negative on this one.
Has anything changed?

[ohisay] 18/6/2024 12:07

Results presentation.They make a decent job of explaining the business but I dont see this as a standalone company anymore .
But it has a good reputation and for the likes of Equals it could be an accretive add on .

[big7ime] 17/6/2024 11:22

Yes I thought that odd but maybe it’s about liquidity. It won’t take much buying now to move this significantly higher as proven this morning.

[thaiger] 09/6/2024 13:55

Cambridge 30....have you got the Cristal ball? Are you smarter than Richard Staveley who Manages Rockwood Strategic Investment Trust? He revealed at Mello that he took part in the placing @45p. When asked why he didn't buy in the market at lower price, he said he's not allowed say as it is not public information yet. All should be revealed on 18/6/24 when AGFX make a presentation on Investor Meet Company

[cambridge130] 07/6/2024 10:45

This company is a complete POS and I predicted it would halve in price on 28th November when it was 80p. Well is truly delivered, for once LOL. More pain ahead for shareholders.

[ali47fish] 04/6/2024 06:37

expnsion in australia today rns

[phillis] 24/5/2024 11:13

It was a matter of credibility for Pacific

[silverlandfinance] 24/5/2024 08:20

The gyrations in the share price are perplexing. Also the buy/sell spread is very wide.

[thaiger] 24/5/2024 07:54

Knowing that Rockwood Strategic (who presented at Mello yesterday) has a holding and took part in the placing, gave me comfort to hold!