Argentex Share Discussion Threads

[ali47fish] 02/5/2024 13:26

anybody knowledgeable can anlyse if this is worth buing while the share price is lower

[eagle eye] 02/5/2024 11:07

74tom,
Good post. Thank you.

[silverlandfinance] 02/5/2024 11:00

How do you square a placing price of 45p per share with a market price of 36p per share.?
The share price has got to go up!

[74tom] 02/5/2024 10:37

@eagle eye, EQLS is also dangerous IMO. As far as I can see they aren't splitting out interest income in their accounts, it's all just classified as 'revenue', AGFX do split it out and have recognised £1.1m in today's accounts, Alpha Group recognised £73m of interest income...

IMO EQLS likely made £5-10m in interest income last year, which explains how they managed to add £18.6m to gross profit despite only increasing revenue by £26m. It would also explain why they put the business up for sale & 6 months later still haven't concluded anything. If the sale process falls through then look out below.

Alpha is by far the best company in this space, hence the up listing to a premium listing today & 10 bag since 2017 IPO.

[zebbo] 02/5/2024 10:22

I'm on my own here, but I think the update reads ok, having read it end to end. You cannot blame the new team. It was the last team who left the legacy.
For me this an opportunity. But each to their own

[awashwi] 02/5/2024 10:15

The company was ; “Debt free and cash generative with net cash increasing by £2.1m in FY23 to £18.3m” I am concerned as to why additional cash is needed now .The strategic review looks like a full house for BS bingo and the fact that the chairman has recently been appointed at the Post office which is likely to trump Argentex role is another source of concern . I said I would review my position after figs/review , I have and am out .

[eagle eye] 02/5/2024 10:00

I'm a previous shareholder in AGFX.
I sold out last July on the the basis of a trading update which was woefully short of detail plus an unprofessional chitty chatty interview on Vox.
As with many companies in AIM, broker notes aren't often worth the paper they are written on.
To think AGFX could get away with a cash raise at the 45p, which was at the current market price was miscalculated at best. In this market it needed to be discounted at least 15 to 20%. The market obviously isn't impressed and is currently 37-38p.
Today's RNS appears to contain a lot of reassuring waffle that is short of detail.
Give us your money and we will realign the business towards sunnier days in a few years time.
Investors should take a look at Equals whose revenue is growing at a faster rate and margins higher than AGFX looks to aspire to. What's more Equals has built it's model and is rapidly gaining traction.
One wonders why some companies come to AIM. Looks like AGFX listing was to enable founding shareholder to make an exit. Now everyone gone, looks like it's job done and dusted.
What's now left is a ragbag of a business that needs to realign to a new business model.
Best of luck to all those who remain, but for me it's lesson learnt and over and out.

[simon gordon] 02/5/2024 09:26

Yump,

A business is a collection of people. The people who have run this business have led to it requiring an emergency placing at 45p. It's a clown car crash. The bulls keep comparing it to Alpha and don't seem to understand that a business is a collection of people.

If you look at the new CEO's CV on LinkedIn it shows little to no expericence in what he is now endeavouring to do. If AGFX were serious they'd poach one of the top people from Alpha or a similar competitor.

This company has been third rate because the management has been third rate. Ultimately, the problem with this company is the institutional shareholders who accepted Jones as Chairman and have now put in charge a CEO who comes from PoS hardware and does not eat, sleep and breathe FX.

Good fortune!

[yump] 02/5/2024 08:28

Simon
You seem to have a thing about Digby Jones. I’m not a fan (won’t go into that), but his behaviour and opinions are in the public domain, which give them much more apparent importance than many others in similar positions, who may have been just as wrong about other things - we just don’t see it and certainly not in retrospect.

As with many “look what happened” revelations, we can’t do the alternative experiment.

[pireric] 02/5/2024 08:09

So the known-known is that the 2024 EBITDA may only be £2-3m. So post tax profit, a smaller fraction of that.

Why do they need to raise with already a material enough own corporate cash balance (when you strip out trade settlements owned by customers)?

Why is this cross-border future not just already owned by Alpha (enter a war of attrition) or Wise?

At best this feels like a very messy transition is upcoming, and not sure that is compelling to own at all. Today it's a spreadsheet based turnaround

Eric

[eagle eye] 02/5/2024 08:03

Read today's RNS.

[thaiger] 02/5/2024 07:58

What price is the placing and retail offer?

[farrugia] 02/5/2024 07:07

'atleast fundraise at current price - should underpin price' that's because those in the know have been forward selling!!

[zebbo] 02/5/2024 06:52

Singer....do you really believe broker fcasts....lol

[zebbo] 02/5/2024 06:50

The business is profitable. They have bitten the bullet and positioned for growth. Feels like a realistic update with realistic expectations. If they can deliver todays share price is cheap IMO

[wooster4] 02/5/2024 06:48

atleast fundraise at current price - should underpin price

[74tom] 02/5/2024 06:46

Indeed Simon, the spin doctors have been busy at work on that RNS. 'repositioning for profitable growth' hmmm, wasn't this business already profitable?

Looks to me as though they intend to try and mimic ALPH, good luck with that...

[simon gordon] 02/5/2024 06:13

Near term outlook: FY24

The adverse market conditions experienced during 2023 continued into the first quarter of 2024. More recently however, we have been encouraged by our trading momentum. In the near term, as we focus on repositioning and restructuring the business for profitable growth, we expect FY24 revenues to be in the mid £40s million, with an EBITDA margin in the low single digits.

-----

In October 2023 Singers forecast:

FY 2024

-T/O: £74m
-Adj EBITDA - £22.5m

[phillis] 01/5/2024 20:09

Rights issue tomorrow- or placement

[zebbo] 01/5/2024 16:57

Interesting development

[ohisay] 01/5/2024 12:34

For sale sign up ?

[simon gordon] 01/5/2024 12:04

Guardian - 1/5/24:

Ex-Camelot boss Nigel Railton named as new Post Office chair

[ohisay] 30/4/2024 11:25

Hi Simon .Rockwood are not at an all time low!

And yes I added yesterday ..waiting to see the results now which they said they would issue in April.

A recovery play for me like SNX !

[simon gordon] 30/4/2024 10:09

Hi Ohisay,

Digby is becoming historic as he leaves in 2025 and the new Chairman has more business acumen.

Rockwood reducing at an all-time low and the share continuing to fall are they not the more pressing factors?

Are you adding?