Arcontech Share Discussion Threads

[multibagger] 24/8/2018 08:54

Hi Bones,

Another good start to the day....I'm checking a few things to see if I can get to the big smoke from lovely Yorks for the AGM.

Fully agree that we are on track for some biggish jumps in the scale of our business. I think it was Red Army who predicted £2 pretty soon, I was not sure if that was possible in the near term given the historical growth rate. I would be absolutely delighted to stand corrected :)

Good luck all :)

[bones] 24/8/2018 08:28

I noticed in the outlook statement this sentence:

“We have added additional sales resource to increase our focus on new business growth and while this will add to our cost base we believe it will generate positive results in the near future.”

Emphasis by me on the last phrase which seems to be a confident thing for the company to say.

[bones] 24/8/2018 07:59

MB, it's a possibility that I will go to the AGM. One or two things to organise but it should be possible.

[multibagger] 24/8/2018 07:47

Anyone here intending to attend the AGM on 27th Sep in London ?

[ramridge] 24/8/2018 06:40

mad foetus - yes Graham Neary is ultra cautious in his approach and he readily admits to it. However you should turn this into your advantage as I do.
So when Graham is enthusiastic about a share, or better still invests, then I really take note, do my analysis, and invariably invest. My risk appetite is higher than his. So far I have done very well out of it.

[bones] 23/8/2018 23:05

TTM, yes the consultants and advisers cleaned up during Y2K as did we investing in their companies :D

[thetrophyman] 23/8/2018 22:50

...Y2K ... I'd forgotten that was a thing.... :) ... I do remember though, feeling very prepared having attended a number of seminars on impending doom!

[bones] 23/8/2018 22:35

I agree TTM, I think Brexit is in the same league as the hysteria surrounding Y2K 19 years ago. We will look back in years to come and be embarrassed by the fuss made. Sadly the politicians have totally hijacked the process for their own ends.

[bones] 23/8/2018 22:30

Valhamos, I used Stocko's screener last year seeking "cheap" small cap growers and ARC popped out on top. I would probably not have picked it up otherwise. My only gripe about SCVR today was that it was clearly the last on his list for the day and basically there was no research involved. It was more of a reader's request type review.No matter, as MB says, I do my own research anyway. ARC is my discovery but I have been ably assisted and encouraged by the contributors here with their wealth of knowledge about the company!

[thetrophyman] 23/8/2018 22:26

red,I really don't see how brexit (whatever that means) would have any impact on ARC, they're already multi-national with a strong moat, operating in a niche market with very loyal clients, reluctant to change... (for obvious reasons)... why / how could brexit change that?

[29palms] 23/8/2018 22:15

Nice to see that we didn't have the "Buy the Rumour, Sell the News" scenario today.

Been holding here for some time and looking forward to some new all time highs given finnCap re-iteration on share price target of £1.45

Still under the radar of buyers and any concerted buying will push share price to finnCap target given small free float.
As always DYOR

[red army] 23/8/2018 22:09

The ONLY issue I have is the nervousness of their potential customers caused by Brexit and the impact towards the financial sector. The lead in time to orders could get worse.

[valhamos] 23/8/2018 21:42

Cheers, Bones. I guess I must be the only poster that doesn't use Stocko. Hadn't heard of Graham Neary - thought it was Paul Scott. Software companies are not going to be 'producing good results' and 'daft cheap' (which I assume means low P/E) at the same time so he is going to be waiting a long time to buy.

[multibagger] 23/8/2018 21:41

Each to his/her own and whether it meets their investment criteria or not.The fact that someone else likes/endorses some company is of absolutely no consequence to me. I read this board and various other magazines/journals etc just to get leads. The decision making rests with me and whether it pays off or I take a hit is purely down to me. Tipsters, research analysts, brokers are grossly overrated.

I am a delighted holder of ARC for many years and my investment has been very well rewarded. I am optimistic that there is plenty more upside and I am patient to reap the rewards.

Good luck all :)

[mad foetus] 23/8/2018 21:16

I'm not a holder here, but to be fair to Graham Neary, he hardly ever invests in anything. He wrote about SPE today, which I do hold, saying that he likes the results and it will stay on his watchlist, where it has been since it was 375 (and it went above £10 today). He will only buy if something is both producing good results and daft cheap. I don't know enough about ARC to know if that is the case here, but he is cautious, and misses opportunities, and is happy to do so if it means he also misses bad investments.

[bones] 23/8/2018 21:11

Small Cap Value Report, part of the Stockopedia offering.

[valhamos] 23/8/2018 19:50

What's SCVR? Sounds like they need new algorithms!

[bones] 23/8/2018 17:35

A "fag-end of the day" 5 minute review from the usually careful SCVR by Graham Neary:

"This company has been listed since 2000, and these are record results:

Revenue up 9% to £2.5 million.
PBT £600k.
Cash £3.2 million.

The company signed up two new clients during the year and has six other clients running trials.

Outlook: a positive sales pipeline, but with a long and complex sales cycle.

My view: Looks very small and slow-moving, but maybe it has potential? There is nothing jumping out at me from these results.

The algorithms also view it as fairly average."

Pity, as something more in-depth might have alerted this classic SCVR-type minnow to the readers there.

[multibagger] 23/8/2018 13:28

Bones...my observation is that ARC are very conservative in how they project and portray the company. So I agree with your view that the Finncap projection is too conservative.

That is why I was intrigued with the earlier trading update stating in a generic manner..."comfortably ahead"....which in itself was unusual. Then the fireworks started and now steaming ahead....

Turnover +9%
PBT +54%
Cash +21% to £3.2m (and no debt)
Dividend +30% to 1.3p
Fully Dil EPS +92% to 7.09p

6 trials ongoing at Tier 1 banks
Maiden installation in Africa
Symphony development partner
Finncap new target 145p

Current Bid/offer: 128 - 132p

More to come :)

[red army] 23/8/2018 12:16

Added to position

[bones] 23/8/2018 11:58

Those Finncap numbers (guided by ARC?) seem a bit conservative to me given the profile of the new business wins and prospects outlined in the RNS. Always good to under-promise and over-deliver of course but when you have two major wins, spreading internationally via Fintech and six further Tier 1 triallists who must surely be encouraged by the two taken up already, I find a 10% increase in sales over the next two years a bit tight!

[gsbmba99] 23/8/2018 11:53

New finnCap estimates. FY19 Rev £2.7m (unch), adj PBT £0.8m (+£0.2m), adj EPS 6.5p (up from 5.5p). New FY20 estimates: Rev £2.9m, adj PBT £0.8m, adj EPS 7.1p. If you're looking for it on Research Tree, it's in the finnCap morning note but not tagged under ARC. Try SPE which also appears in the morning note.

[bones] 23/8/2018 11:39

Picked up another 11k at average 123p. Some strong accumulation happening this morning in 10k lumps from what I can see.

Can see this scooting past the revised target of 145p in the next few weeks as a new tranche of small cap investors see this appearing on their horizons (>10M MCap brigade).

[red army] 23/8/2018 11:38

I make the next stop 160p

Buyers coming in now.

[bones] 23/8/2018 10:51

finnCap today reaffirms its corporate investment rating on Arcontech Group PLC (LON:ARC) and raised its price target to 145p (from 85p).

Will check later on Research Tree for the details.