Arbuthnot Banking Share Discussion Threads

[pvb] 22/10/2014 01:27

Oops! Went by. Positive trading update, 15 October:



"Accordingly, the Group anticipates the full year results will be marginally ahead of market expectations. Given the improving market conditions and the enlarged capital base, the Group remains well positioned to maintain its positive progress."

[retsius] 17/10/2014 13:24

Spob
Point taken and I understand where you are coming from.Of course,you have to evaluate the stock to the best of your ability before you commit any monies.
This stock(ARRB)seems to have risen strongly recently so I'll keep an eye on it meantime.
R.

[spob] 17/10/2014 09:12

It has become obvious that Simon places far to much emphasis on hope and pie in the sky company broker forecasts rather than genuine value in his stock selections.

It is also clear that he has no exit strategy to drop profitable positions early before they turn back down again

When he included three Chinese aim stocks in his so called Benjamin Graham portfolio back in February, the writing was on the wall.

Also he covers far to many companies. There are just never going to be that many stocks worthy of serious consideration.

He is a professional magazine seller not a professional investor

[retsius] 17/10/2014 08:59

Spob
Not an accountant myself,but wire an e-mail to ST; should be worth a try.He views the share very highly,that's why I am thinking of purchasing a few.
Very good Trading Statement just released ;increases my opinion of 'strong buy'.But DYOR.

[spob] 17/10/2014 02:03

Book value for ARBB as of last results was 462p per share or £69m


Arbuthnot's 53% stake in STB is worth 243m or 1630p per ARBB share

The question is how is the value of STB recorded on the ARBB balance sheet

because i cant find it in Arbuthnot's accounts


If it is ascribed a value in the accounts, what value have they given ?

and where in the accounts can i find it ?


The reason I ask is because Simon Thompson of the IC views the difference between the value of the 53% STB stake and the market value of ARBB as some kind of anomoly.

But surely that entirely depends on what liabilities are held by ARBB

and how the 53% stake is recorded in the ARBB accounts



Forgive my ignorance here

I am new to ARBB

[spob] 16/10/2014 21:30

1 Year ARBB






1 Year STB






As of 16 Oct 14


ARBB - price 1140p, NoS 14.9m, Mcap £170m

STB - price 2586p, NoS 17.7m, Mcap £459m

ARBB owns 9.48m shares or 53% of STB. Its stake in STB is worth £240m, or 50 per cent more than Arbuthnot’s own market value.

[retsius] 16/10/2014 15:22

Thinking of buying some shares.Any views guys?

[mikeja] 15/10/2014 07:26

With the action late on,not the best kept secret.Looks like underlying eps around 90p for this year.Full impact of the fund raising should be coming in 2015 so eps around 120p+ looks conservative

[123ct] 14/10/2014 14:18

this stock has not moved for ages but I see secure trust has been edging up slightly over recent days, trading update due on 15th tomorrow so lets see what happens,

[mikeja] 23/7/2014 16:54

Numis have issued a note,completely useless as they are using unadjusted figures.Their bank analysts are always far more bearish than anyone else,not just on ARBB.Canaccord and Oriel have notes on STB both with targets of £31+.
For those interested in this sort of co I have started a thread on OSB which looks ridiculously cheap.

[pvb] 23/7/2014 11:38

Yes, thanks from me too mikeja.

[caradog] 23/7/2014 10:39

Thank you for your efforts. Much appreciated.

[mikeja] 23/7/2014 10:18

OK,long conversation with James Cobb,FD of ARBB.The underlying eps is 38.1p,up about 85% from last year.Underlying profit is before deduction of central expenses and,of course tax.The new money may not all be invested until the end of 2015 so it might be wise to look for an extra £10m for 2015 for STB rather than £15m.For ARBB I reduce my eps for 2015 back to 125p,still way ahead of current levels,but look for 165-170p for 2016.

[mikeja] 22/7/2014 17:18

Trying to reconcile all the figures between ARBB and STB is a nightmare.
Cannot make the two add up at the moment,waiting to talk to FD.What can be said is that underlying profit for ARBB has jumped from £7.2m to £13.2m.There is no figure for underlying eps in either year.Does one have to deduct minority interests from that figure?Even if one does eps seem to be around 55p.
Roll on 2015 when hopefully the last of the variations from the 2012 purchases will have gone.Will update tomorrow.

[mikeja] 22/7/2014 08:49

Revisiting my previous note 213 looks more like 140p for 2015.Both banks have very high ROE which means retained profits will push earnings in future years.

[mikeja] 22/7/2014 08:05

Outstanding figs from both ARBB and STB.You have to look quite hard to find underlying eps for ARBB which are under note3 as 38.1p....Total forecast for year should be soundly beaten at around 80-85p.I have earlier posted on benefits of rights issue and look for around 125p a share for 2015.

[jakecook] 15/7/2014 17:56

modform, Simon Thompson has a poor track record?! Who are you? the illegitimate child of Warren Buffet?

[mikeja] 12/7/2014 15:57

Interims due around end of week

[supersturrock] 03/7/2014 20:24

Alright then Modform - why don't you do your own analysis and see what conclusion YOU reach ?

[modform] 03/7/2014 18:41

I wouldn't buy anything on the back of Simon Thompson' s recommendation, he has very poor track record imo.

[gary1966] 03/7/2014 18:36

Skyship,

Are you able to post the article or is it subscription only?

Thanks

Gary

[skyship] 03/7/2014 15:10

Chart breakout on a Simon Thompson online IC tip...