Apr Energy Share Discussion Threads

[younasm] 26/10/2015 09:32

175p not bad -- looks cheap longer term for the bidder.Another one to remove from my active trading list.Good hunting........

[actony] 21/10/2015 13:02

Anybody know when the announcement regarding banking covenants is being released

[shakyhands] 19/10/2015 16:57

Is it possible the buyers are trading on inside info ?

[tsmith2] 19/10/2015 16:46

Must be painful for shorters..

[debbie_does_dallas_twice] 19/10/2015 16:33

Going up on basically sells this pm, always a good sign.
AT bid side consistently reloading, last time this occurred was the morning just before the RNS about takeover talks.

[gleach23] 19/10/2015 15:49

cue resumption of bulletin board bravado...

[elrico] 05/10/2015 18:44

SCRUTABLE - Check advfn messages and sky email.

[scrutable] 05/10/2015 15:55

Hullo Elric glad to know you are still breathing and still cautious. I have enjoyed the most exhilarating day of my dotage today. Can't tell Angie though.

I don't have your number any more. If you still have mine do use it to exchange significant news and nuggets of wisdom. I hope you have a fistful of these.

[elrico] 05/10/2015 14:45

Excellent observation, SCRUTABLE, but I suspect investors will be focussed on the looming banking covenant deadline especially given not limited fiscal info related to a possible offer.

[scrutable] 05/10/2015 13:03

The Libyan assets have been rescued. The company is good at what it does, and there are power shortages throughout the world, particularly the 3rd world. APR is still getting new orders as it was all last year - to whit in September alone 35MW to Botswana and 38MW to Senegal. By next Summer a trickle of new sales and expansions will have replaced the 450MW from Libya so there is no reason why cash flow would not have returned to 2013/14 levels and enterprise value to the peak of Summer 2014, with the share price as it was then of 400p and cap of £425m.

The offer approach today is opportunist and the buyer may expect the company to sell out under duress ie for far below fair value. It's going to be interesting but all holders will have doubled their money today on paper with more on the table if they now hold their nerve.

I for one will regret a simple takeover. I have only recently become a holder on the basis that recovery would be a no brainer - provided the bank wants to keep a good client. However they don't often value what they have got and are great with a saw on the branch they are sitting on.

[debbie_does_dallas_twice] 05/10/2015 12:49

Many thanks.
Close some down just after open tomorrow and let 10k ride for outcome.
Took some pain on these a few weeks ago though.
Looks like it was trashed in preparation for low ball offer of cira 200--250p imho.
Saying that it's hard to see legacy long term holders taking anywhere near that.

[wisteria2] 05/10/2015 12:40

Starting to look a bit frothy!! or just a dinner break!!
Nice one debs... are you going to bank or let it ride? lol

[debbie_does_dallas_twice] 05/10/2015 11:56

wow
up 63p from me 5k at 8.24am
up 63p on my 3k at 9.09 am
up 55p on my 4k at 9.42
up 56 p on my 3k at 9.37am
then up 35p bought on 10K bought after rns auction.
That spike this am from the off was a big give,,,

Nice Monday for a change here....

[debbie_does_dallas_twice] 05/10/2015 11:46

Notifiable and notified shorts are 2% you mean.

[theprovosts] 05/10/2015 11:41

debbie, approx 2% of the stock is short, hardly a bear squeeze.



well done all holders

[alchemy30] 05/10/2015 11:36

According to this the bears are out, short interest 1.72%

hxxp://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B58D4C52/all

[debbie_does_dallas_twice] 05/10/2015 11:35

The bears are trapped, A good time to sell? wtf???

[tsmith2] 05/10/2015 11:32

Good time to take profits imo - indebtedness puts buyers in relatively strong position..

[tidy 2] 05/10/2015 11:32

Guys SQZUK, Central North Sea: ERSKINE FIELD.Serica own 18%, Chevron (operator) 50%, BG 32%SQZ stake gives them 4100-5000bopd$30 per barrel profitCurrent cap £21mNo debtCash balance >50% of Mcap

[debbie_does_dallas_twice] 05/10/2015 11:31

feel free to remind him of the share price since his sell rec on Thursday,,, LOL

[alchemy30] 05/10/2015 11:30

Surely an bidder takes advantage of this ?


Valuation/Risks
We value APR on a tangible net book value basis given material uncertainties over its ability to continue as a going concern. Given recent impairments and the audit qualification we apply a 40% discount to the PPE carrying value which drives a 70p price target and unchanged Underperform recommendation. In reality we are now at a crossroads where the outcome is contingent on banking support, without it our downside scenario price target of 0p is likely, with it the stock could move towards the upside scenario of 200p.

[wisteria2] 05/10/2015 11:28

Do you like dallas!

[debbie_does_dallas_twice] 05/10/2015 11:24

very happy with my share buys this am. A lot of shorts need to close here, this could be 2quid today.

[tsmith2] 05/10/2015 11:22

Lucian Miers was short and had increased his short recently...ouch! Though I suspect he's made a fair bit shorting other stocks