Angus Energy Share Discussion Threads

[ja51oiler] 27/6/2022 10:16

1347.The gas generators should be sitting next to the diesel generators and the switchgear room. The Drone picture 3put posted shows they are still not in position.

[3put] 27/6/2022 10:12

Does the company continue to be in discussions with the 2 interested parties in Saltfleetby? Asked on 30 May 2022
We have kept an open line to three participants. Non-binding offers have been tabled but they did not reflect the true value of the asset or were contingent on various milestones being met.

It is one thing to low-ball ahead of proof of success, but to low-ball and make a bid contingent on proof of success seems to be having one’s cake and eating it.

In short we were being faced with the same issue that the old Angus had with Horse Hill – sell out the asset at an undervalue ahead of final proof of success, or press on alone and indeed increase our stake in the asset. On this occasion we chose the latter.

[3put] 27/6/2022 10:12

As referenced in a recent interview with George Lucan, if all goes to plan with Saltfleetby is the company still hoping to pay long term shareholders a special dividend? Thanks. Asked on 30 May 2022
Thank you. The new strategic investors are advocating a regular dividend payout policy of 50%. The BoD certainly believe that large reliable dividends are still the best corporate communications that a company can make with shareholders.

[3put] 27/6/2022 10:12

Can the company please confirm the sidetrack schedule please. Asked on 30 May 2022
The precise spud date has not been set but is expected to be in the first three weeks of July.

[3put] 27/6/2022 10:11

Was the deal to acquire the remaining 49% of SFB dilutive or accretive for shareholders when you add in all the associated funding?

Thank you. Asked on 30 May 2022
It was massively accretive and not dilutive at all. We acquired the 49%, which by the October P90 valuation was worth c.£25 million, for £14 million. We won’t call it the deal of the century, but it is an outstandingly good deal, especially when you consider that the average forward gas price in that October 2021 CPR has almost doubled today.

It is difficult to do the sums easily, since our own market cap prior to the announcement was only £17.5m (at 1.28p) and barely reflected the October CPR valuation of our 51% interest let alone potential (and now at Brockham actual production) at the southern oil fields. A decent estimate of 100% of Saltfleetby (just on the lower October CPR) and, say, just £10m for the oil fields would yield a value around the £60m mark and give a price per fully diluted share of nearer 2.5p. With current prices, the sky is the limit.

Yes we nearly doubled the number of shares outstanding but, taking into account the price paid for the asset, we more than doubled the value of the company.

Also unlike past placings only a small fraction (4%) of this issuance wss to market participants who might trade out. The rest is either locked up or part of a strategic stake.

Finally the raising of the £6m cash – done to ensure the assent of regulators and lenders – puts the risk of further placings out of people’s minds. Retail should be able to work in this stock with confidence.

[headinthesand] 27/6/2022 10:11

3Put is getting nervous again, a sure sign being the amount of outdated info copy n pasting he's doing.

Lots of nonsense next door over the weekend. To cut directly to the chase:-

The is only one gas compression engine on site, not two. That is confirmed both by ANGS RNSes and by very recent site drone photos. ANGS may well have ordered two (and seem to have done so) but as of yet, only one's been delivered to be plumbed in.

That's not a problem per se - ANGS has said for several months that the second gas compression engine won't be needed until the sidetrack (presuming the latter is successful).

What it DOES mean though is that, regardless of any hoped-for pressure build-up, the maximum production capacity of the field with just one gas compression engine is limited to 1.5 million therms a month.

STILL no news on:-

1. the date for first gas.

2. the date on which Shell will start offtaking (i.e. purchasing) any produced gas.

3. a clear, definitive and simple yes/no answer as to whether the sidetrack attempt can in fact be made without having to suspend production.

4. the incongruity between Aleph Fin C's 7.19%/164 million share holding as per the ANGUS website and the complete absence of any TR-1

5. the mystery of why no announcement has been made on Aleph taking the second £3 million's worth of shares - that's 273 million extra shares as allegedly agreed in the recent £6 million placing. In fact at the very least, ANGS would have to announce the increase in shares in issue, were this to have occurred (up from 2,283 million to 2,556 million), so one can only presume that has not in fact happened.

[3put] 27/6/2022 10:07

Was the deal to acquire the remaining 49% of SFB dilutive or accretive for shareholders when you add in all the associated funding?

Thank you. Asked on 30 May 2022
It was massively accretive and not dilutive at all. We acquired the 49%, which by the October P90 valuation was worth c.£25 million, for £14 million. We won’t call it the deal of the century, but it is an outstandingly good deal, especially when you consider that the average forward gas price in that October 2021 CPR has almost doubled today.

It is difficult to do the sums easily, since our own market cap prior to the announcement was only £17.5m (at 1.28p) and barely reflected the October CPR valuation of our 51% interest let alone potential (and now at Brockham actual production) at the southern oil fields. A decent estimate of 100% of Saltfleetby (just on the lower October CPR) and, say, just £10m for the oil fields would yield a value around the £60m mark and give a price per fully diluted share of nearer 2.5p. With current prices, the sky is the limit.

Yes we nearly doubled the number of shares outstanding but, taking into account the price paid for the asset, we more than doubled the value of the company.

Also unlike past placings only a small fraction (4%) of this issuance wss to market participants who might trade out. The rest is either locked up or part of a strategic stake.

Finally the raising of the £6m cash – done to ensure the assent of regulators and lenders – puts the risk of further placings out of people’s minds. Retail should be able to work in this stock with confidence.

[3put] 27/6/2022 10:07

Given the amount of seismic performed over the last 25 years in the field and the number of bore-holes and side-tracks drilled, providing good offset data, presumably the company and its contractors must be wholly confident of hitting the target zone. Putting that aside, what operational risks exist and could the programme be more complicated or expensive than planned? What lessons have been learned from mistakes by previous drillers in this formation? Asked on 31 May 2022
Thanks. The level of confidence about the target zone is indeed very high. We are addressing an area of the reservoir which was being produced from by an existing well, which was shut in due to a well-bore related issue.

An non-exhaustive list of risks, ever present in all drilling programmes is given in hxxps://www.researchgate.net/publication/317248002_Downhole_Drilling_Problems

Pertinent here are 1) hole collapse – this occurred twice in the Saltfleetby field and both times in the same layer, so we have introduced mitigation measures and will approach this layer with appropriate caution and 2) differential sticking ; 3) loss of bottom hole assembly – this occurred twice at Saltfleetby and 4) lost circulation fluids with reservoir damage. Many of these issues can be managed by reducing mud weight which is easier to do when well control is not such an issue as in a depleted reservoir.

It is wrong to characterise the historical drilling programmes at Saltfleetby as being especially prone to failure. Drilling was conducted between 1984 and 2017 by a number of Operators of varying competence. This being the UK’s largest onshore gas field, a great number of the earlier side tracks were in fact wholly exploratory. Some of the later drilling programmes did encounter problems which (by the common agreement of many specialists present at the time) could have been avoided with a relatively small degree of caution by the then drilling manager.

As we have advised before, this sidetrack has been planned with the benefit of enhanced 3D seismic and the oversight of a great number of independent drilling engineers and specialists. Some of the later side-tracks did not benefit from such oversight.

Angus’ drilling programmes have generally been well executed – albeit with disappointment about the target zone at Brockham and Lidsey. Angus drilled Horse Hill-1 successfully before selling out to partners and drilling programmes at the other fields either did not encounter the sorts of issues listed above or Angus was able to rectify them swiftly.

[3put] 27/6/2022 10:07

Can we please have an update on all the relevant permissions needed for current and near future work. Asked on 14 June 2022
We will answer this question in the ordinary course of our Q&A, but as regards our recommissioning project at Saltfleetby we note that on 22 March 2022 we have already answered this question as follows:

“Angus Energy plc (AIM: ANGS) is pleased to announce that the Environment Agency has issued its Variation Notice for the existing Saltfleetby gas field permit. The site permit now encompasses the new activities of processing and compressing of gas for direct export to National Grid. No further regulatory or planning permissions are required before First Gas.”

[headinthesand] 27/6/2022 09:53

3Put is getting nervous again, a sure sign being the amount of outdated info copy n pasting he's doing.

Lots of nonsense next door over the weekend. To cut directly to the chase:-

The is only one gas compression engine on site, not two. That is confirmed both by ANGS RNSes and by very recent site drone photos. ANGS may well have ordered two (and seem to have done so) but as of yet, only one's been delivered to be plumbed in.

That's not a problem per se - ANGS has said for several months that the second gas compression engine won't be needed until the sidetrack (presuming the latter is successful).

What it DOES mean though is that, regardless of any hoped-for pressure build-up, the maximum production capacity of the field with just one gas compression engine is limited to 1.5 million therms a month.

STILL no news on:-

1. the date for first gas.

2. the date on which Shell will start offtaking (i.e. purchasing) any produced gas.

3. a clear, definitive and simple yes/no answer as to whether the sidetrack attempt can in fact be made without having to suspend production.

4. the incongruity between Aleph Fin C's 7.19%/164 million share holding as per the ANGUS website and the complete absence of any TR-1

5. the mystery of why no announcement has been made on Aleph taking the second £3 million's worth of shares - that's 273 million extra shares as allegedly agreed in the recent £6 million placing. In fact at the very least, ANGS would have to announce the increase in shares in issue, were this to have occurred (up from 2,283 million to 2,556 million), so one can only presume that has not in fact happened.

[gaffer73] 27/6/2022 09:49

They only need one compressor until the sidetrack comes on line.

[jtidsbadly] 27/6/2022 09:47

Ooh, sorry, yes the first gas compressor on its own will handle all they can produce from the existing wells, up to 5mmscfd. So he was correct. No bonanza of gas in excess of that 5mmscfd though, until the second compressor is fixed up. Is that going to be before or after the sidetrack has been drilled?

[jtidsbadly] 27/6/2022 09:43

gaffer73: how is this possible? THe Interim MD said this on 10 June, the date of the most recent update on progress: “With all equipment necessary to export sales gas now on site, the process has been handed over to commissioning specialists.” Is the second gas processor not on site? Perhaps he’s referring to “site” as any site, anywhere, owned by anyone?

[shooter mcgavin] 27/6/2022 09:42

Decided to add to my holding today

[ja51oiler] 27/6/2022 09:42

Those are air compressors gas man. You couldn't fit 100 of them onto the gas compressor!!! Try again!

[jtidsbadly] 27/6/2022 09:35

It certainly needs one, Jonny. What’s it going to be? First gas at the end of the week? What’s first gas, Jonny?

[gaffer73] 27/6/2022 09:34

The yellow compressors are air compressors. The gas compressor skid unit is the big grey rectangular unit in the top left of the drone picture. The second one is still being fabricated and should arrive shortly.

[sincero1] 27/6/2022 09:32

there is a grey old stale urine smelling mutton chops slapping coming ..... a big one....

[gasman10] 27/6/2022 09:28

Ask the company troll

[jtidsbadly] 27/6/2022 09:14

Yes, 3Put, those are the air compressors. We’re talking here about the gas compressor.

[3put] 27/6/2022 09:02

Two HBC screw compressors were fitted last week

[3put] 27/6/2022 09:01

Definitely 2, a compressor has that big electrical unit you see posted. This pulls ambient air In, compresses it and discharges to a wet air receiver (the big vessels) this has an auto drain on it to remove condensate/moisture from the air. This then goes through a dryer and then Into a dry air receiver which is basically the holding vessel for use on all the pneumatic equipment on site

[gaffer73] 27/6/2022 08:58

Bit of confusion with air compressors and gas compressors. Only one gas compressor package on site so far. Top left in the drone picture.

[3put] 27/6/2022 08:42

Each compressor can produce 1.5 million therms a month. Angus have confirmed in a tweet both compressors were being tied in . So both are on site. HITS is wrong.

Which of course now means that when both the shut in wells at Saltfleetby are switched back on, can produce up to 10 million therms a month at maximum capacity. As only 5 million therms a month are hedged it's getting rather exciting.
Should the two wells perform exceeding expectations, the question has to be asked. Would they need to drill the sidetrack.

Gla ATB. We are about to find out imo.