Angus Energy Share Discussion Threads

[solo4yous] 19/11/2021 13:13

I like this Q&A response too!



There is no hedge on production until July 2022. What is the value of all production from March 2022 to July 2022 at the prices on the present NBP Heren forward curve for these months with and without the side track? Asked on 21 September 2021

The short answer is the field ,on the original CPR plateau volumes but at the latest forward curve prices, might generate £17 mllion over those four months with the side track and about £8.5m without it. Angus share is 51%. Ordinary opex might be about £0.6m excluding debt service.

The forward prices from are given below in $/MMBTU (approx pence/therm equivalent in brackets). Prices from ICE for contracts for Q2 in pence/therm in particular seem to be a penny or two better which is probably the £/$ exchange rate (see

Heren March $28.583 (213p); April $16.679 (119p); May $14.260 (102p); June $13.774 (98p), given a conservative conversion rate of volume (mmscf) to heat value (therms) – i.e. multiply mmscf by 10500 to get therms – the field would generate in total over those four months gross revenues for all partners of £17.1 million at 10mmscf/d (i.e. CPR plateau production with side track) or £8.6 million at 5 mmscf/d (i.e. CPR lower plateau production with no sidetrack). Operating expenses for full year 2022 according to CPR might be of the order of £2.3m and therefore for this period would be c. £0.6m.

All of this information is already publicly available, and we stress these are presently notional numbers arrived at approxmately and that these prices are not hedged in any way and therefore might not be available come production in March etc. However whilst the final outcome may vary considerably, we and our partners do anticipate strong demand for gas in the coming years regardless of short term price effects.

[jtidsbadly] 19/11/2021 13:10

No, not a NIMBY shorter. If you’ll be good enough to tell me how to short it, though, I’ll think about it.

[solo4yous] 19/11/2021 13:07

Answer the question NIMBY LOCAL SHORTER?!

[jtidsbadly] 19/11/2021 12:52

HITS: he’ll need to raise some money before he does that, to be on the safe side. He may also need to get a friend or two out at break-even. I wonder how he plans to do that? There must be a ramp coming at some stage. There, cudswallop, how’s that for a positive opinion?

Is Ocelot starting to sound a bit desperate?

[headinthesand] 19/11/2021 12:50

...and the market is ignoring you and your multi-IDs, with your farcical ramping.

[solo4yous] 19/11/2021 12:50

The buy case some is clear
The sell case too

Each to their own!

[solo4yous] 19/11/2021 12:49

Value is here IMO
Low Volume Pullbacks, Market Sentiment

I am ignoring the LOCAL FUKAS

[headinthesand] 19/11/2021 12:37

The multi-ID boiler room both here and next door aren't having much success, are they? I do feel for the few genuine long-term holders that post, if they pay the slightest attention to any of the ramptastic promises of what always turn out to be false dawns that get endlessly trotted out.

However, as ever it's the market that decides - and it has to be said (entirely unsurprisingly) that the market is busily ascribing precisely zero credibility or value to ANGS's latest litany of projections, which are yet again in the process of being missed.

George should wise up - the only possible strategy by now is obviously one of complete transparency and constant updates, not random tweeted pix of second-hand kit being refurbed somewhere 3 weeks and counting after ANGS promised it would be on site.

[sincero1] 19/11/2021 12:33

i'm off to enjoy my weekend ..... the grey old disingenuous mouth breathers will, no doubt, continue to post all weekend negative supposition ... its just all very predictable ...and very very sad..... little things please little minds ...

[sincero1] 19/11/2021 12:04

jtisadly " I’m busy." yes of course ,you must be , its black friday sales on comfy slippers, cardigans and brown slacks ... as always when you are caught out you try and deflect.....its ok , i know, we all know. you have nothing to offer apart from negative supposition ... have you ever considered telling the truth .. might help when the knock on the door comes...

[jtidsbadly] 19/11/2021 11:54

It’s all there, Jonny, just takes a little time and effort to look it up. I can save you some time if you want to know where to find the information. Not more than one request per day, though, thanks, I’m busy.

[jtidsbadly] 19/11/2021 11:51

1347: they needed new management three years ago, but sadly only got a (resting) finance man as an Interim MD while they looked for a candidate with some oil or gas experience. It’s too late now, the charges are in place, as are the hedges. It’s going to be more of the same, I think.

Yes, the Interim MD is very cavalier with shareholders and with the regulations. Economical only with the actualité.

[jtidsbadly] 19/11/2021 11:28

And now Ocelot claims the Anguish management has the confidence of the Lenders, so it should have the confidence of its shareholders! The Lenders have confidence in their charges, not the Anguish management.

He’s also tried a correction to HITS’ use of English. No, Ocelot, HITS is right. Stick to the smooth shillspeak, it’s what you’re good at.

[jtidsbadly] 19/11/2021 11:15

Yes, Jonny, Mercuria will have accountants who will have cast a slide rule over this. That’s why it took six months to negotiate the loan and why the terms nail Angus to the wall/barrel. It’s why the terms of the charges are so detailed. If it’s not producing cash by May/June, they will be able to take the assets. About 6 months. Even if the Anguish management break the habits of the company’s lifetime, the hedges then apply, so that, unless there’s a successful sidetrack, Anguish may still not be out of the woods. You should know these things by now, we’ve been through it all before.

The above is fact, not interpretation, it’s all there, go and look.

[davemarn] 19/11/2021 11:08

Mercuria the multinational multibillion pound company has investment analysts and they are involved with angus .... makes old jtisadly's post look very silly indeed...if only these old duffers , in their haste to be negative , would only think before they write they perhaps would not embarrass themselves so much and so often .... better luck next time ...

[headinthesand] 19/11/2021 11:02

Oh come on now, Mercuria has a "heads we win, tails you lose" deal.

And I'd have no problems with "official words"... if a) they weren't undeviatingly proven by subsequent reality to be wrong and b) if said "official words" were revised as soon as ANGS became aware that what it had previously assured wasn't going to happen in the timeframe it had promised it would.

Classic case in point. Very latest ANGS "official words" still state that groundworks would commence in Sep and that at least some major equipment would be onsite in Oct. The passage of time has revealed that neither statement has turned out to be true.

Okay sure, schedules slip... but where are the revised "official words" reflecting this? Making Poundland produce sufficiently and in a timely manner is literally a matter of continuing existence or not for ANGS, so updating schedules is obligatory.

[sincero1] 19/11/2021 10:51

Mercuria the multinational multibillion pound company has investment analysts and they are involved with angus .... makes old jtisadly's post look very silly indeed...if only these old duffers , in their haste to be negative , would only think before they write they perhaps would not embarrass themselves so much and so often .... better luck next time ...

[jtidsbadly] 19/11/2021 10:44

I’ve just looked at Jonny’s latest contribution and it’s the most dim so far! All we’ve got is the management’s latest information! Ho, ho. Why do investment banks employ so many investment analysts and pay them so well, do you think? To believe and regurgitate to their clients the latest management offerings? Or to go through the accounts and interpret them for themselves? And take management’s announcements and compare them with earlier ones for inconsistencies. They’d find rich pickings here.

If this were a FTSE 250 company, it would have not a single institutional shareholder and it’s even possible the FCA might be having a look.

[sincero1] 19/11/2021 10:35

hits - ultimately all there is is official word from the company ...everything else is speculation and supposition , are you advocating that comments from anonymous disingenuous posters could be valid and accurate....now that is a real problem...

as regards irony i'm fully aware what it means ......but with that pompous old cretin i am not so sure it was ..... his posts are littered with mistakes , they can't all be irony ... unless you think that means " a bit like iron"....

[jtidsbadly] 19/11/2021 10:32

1347: cue normal Pavlovian response?

HITS: I think very few people posting elsewhere realise that this is an existential issue for Anguish. They seem to assume it will be OK, they’ll get it right in the end and next year, they’ll all be..

I agree with both your posts, though.

[headinthesand] 19/11/2021 10:26

Sincero, the problems with relying on the "official word from the company" are twofold.

1. To date, those "official words" have literally never turned out to be in the least accurate.

2. More to the point, ANGS does NOT update those who have entirely funded it throughout its entire existence when it misses a schedule. It leaves assured schedules out there as the latest information it has given long after they have been missed.

Everyone knows that getting to a sufficient quantity of gas production within a timely manner is literally a matter of life and death for the company. This is so crucial that on any basis (including regulatory), ANGS owes it to those who have funded it to provide revised key schedule info as soon as it knows it's going to be missed and thus needs revision.

Random Twitter pics posted in late November of various bits of second hand equipment being refurbished in some workshop somewhere are CATEGORICALLY NOT an acceptable substitute, if you've assured the market that equipment's going to be onsite within October... and it simply wasn't and still isn't.

Oh and re "educashion", if you don't want to look foolish, perhaps consider that the word "irony" does not mean "a bit like iron"?

[davemarn] 19/11/2021 10:25

gaffer "Well I'll wait for the official word from the company." a perfectly reasonable response but the resident disingenuous old window lickers with their negative agenda don't like reasonable and sensible responses.. everything they post , everything , is negative supposition ....... without that they have nothing ... they are irrelevant ... but a brief look at their posting history will tell you that anyway ...