Anglo Pacific Share Discussion Threads

[madengland_] 02/9/2021 09:29

Lmao at the thought of the Chinese being leaders in technology or anything environmentally driven. Note the article has no substance in it whatsoever. More like an article pumped out by the CCP.

[buywell2] 02/9/2021 08:21

Cobalt free batteries now in production

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 02/9/2021 08:12

#Dartboard1, the strategic review will decide, but if a sale happens then timing it for after the extension is granted taking the royalty out to 2044 from 2031 would lock in that value, with potential for the best part of USD100M income at todays prices over LOM, around 25% MCAP which is a large slice, would selling it on for ESG purposes generate enough new interest to recover the MCAP...? I am not yet convinced, but this is what the review will decide, and I look forward to their conclusions..

We will need to fund Incoa in early 2022 for USD20M..

02.03.2020 .. after funding the Anglo Pacific / Incoa Tranche 2 Commitment, the Company anticipates receiving average annual cashflow of approximately US$1.75 - 2.0M over the first 10 years, and approximately US$2.75 - 3.0M per annum longer term over the life of the project.., so this does go along way to recovering the income sold on..

[dartboard1] 02/9/2021 07:33

Can you see them selling it before the extension being granted? Would leave a lot of value on the table if they do that ... no??

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 02/9/2021 07:29

On Narrabri, if this royalty is sold on, the forfeit would typically be USD1M per quarter, but the result would be we can keep LIORC earning roughly the same and pay for tranche2 of the Incoa royalty early 2022 from cash..., with the change going towards the enhanced Piaui royalty as well..., I see this as a likely result now...

[illiswilgig] 01/9/2021 07:59

COKING COAL DAILY: PCI prices jump, supported by high coking coal prices

Low-volatility pulverized coal injection (PCI) prices in both the fob and cfr market jumped following price gains in coking coal the week to Friday August 27. And a shortage of railway wagons in Russia has delayed the transport of PCI to China, sources said.
Published on August 27, 2021 12:48 PM By

Min Li

Fastmarkets indices
Premium hard coking coal, cfr Jingtang: $408.51 per tonne, down $0.42 per tonne

Hard coking coal, cfr Jingtang: $385.67 per tonne, unchanged

Premium hard coking coal, fob DBCT: $248.90 per tonne, up by $4.92 per tonne

Hard coking coal, fob DBCT: $212.40 per tonne, up by $4.50 per tonne

hxxps://www.fastmarkets.com/article/4004984/coking-coal-daily-pci-prices-jump-supported-by-high-coking-coal-prices

[illiswilgig] 01/9/2021 07:51

Andy,

'Coking coal holding up well.15% of 200 dollars a ton'

my understanding from the APF website is that they are entitled to 50% of the royalty on their private land holdings,

50% of 15% over $200AUSD = 7.5% above $200AUSD

But I agree with your point - should help Q3 to be a very good one.

cheers

[johnrxx99] 01/9/2021 07:42

Mas, I wish I had as well but fully committed elsewhere.

[andydaf] 31/8/2021 20:26

Coking coal holding up well.15% of 200 dollars a ton should help the Q3 to be quite a good one.GLA

[masurenguy] 31/8/2021 16:22

Nice rise into the close. Glad that I topped up @131.8p early this morning.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 31/8/2021 09:20

The latest IOC dividend announced yesterday is +10% above the last one, so we can expect LIORC to be at least CAD 1.75/share or around USD 1.4M for our Q4.. :o)

[husbod] 27/8/2021 17:15

Covered in this week's IC with a buy recommendation

[stevie blunder] 26/8/2021 09:50

Hi LLB, your 3 year looks about right.
On page 9 of the presentation Kestrel is valued at 63.4M, which should represent the NPV of the future royalties, although the presenter did say that the value looked low given the current coking coal price. At the H1 run-rate of 9.5M that would be just over 3 years, so that looks like the best we can do as an estimate.

Cash for investment is looking a bit tight if they want to do any deals not so far in the pipeline, so maybe more debt? We shouldn't rule out a share issue either IMHO, if a good deal appears.
Dugbe gold royalty could be up for sale at some point as it doesn't fit either as a commodity or jurisdiction, but probably not before start of mine construction.

[cocopah] 26/8/2021 09:45

LLB already 6 deliveries tucked away from VB this quarter (so far) in 20t shipments. On Narrabri, when pushed JT said that there was significant interest and that told me it was unlikely to be sold below NAV, not so concerned on debt now at all. A one-liner mid Q&A saying still looking actively at M&A opportunities. Thoughts?

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 26/8/2021 09:08

#Stevie Blunder, I heard this too, and have been working out the run rate of the longwall which seems to be about a panel / 3KM a year as we had a change out on Q3 at Kestrel last year too, so on that measure we have 3 years left, almost a full year to Q3-2022 then down 50% to Q3-2023, then just a small contribution for end of 2023 early 2024, plus the 500 series panel royalty area income when they get to it..

Looking forward we need USD20M for Incoa, and USD70M for Piaui second tranche investments, and GBP15M/USD20M for dividend cover a year at 7p.

Assets:
Narrabri royalty
5M Treasury shares (+USD8.5M)
USD33M of LIORC shares
+USD15M in cash at the interims..
est total around USD100M..?
Net debt USD108M

Q3 this year will give us a better idea of where we are on income to plan with but FY 2021 income should now come in at around GBP40-45M / USD56/63M..

[stevie blunder] 26/8/2021 08:49

All looking good here, the only fly in the ointment I can see is the longwall changes scheduled at Kestrel and Narrabri for Q3. So we should be cautious with Q3 volumes.
It is mentioned around the 10 minute mark in the presentation.

[the deacon] 26/8/2021 08:38

I think the reporting in USD plays into the M&A angle. I wouldn't be surprised to see some form of transaction with the likes of Altius play out around the time JT steps down. Both are aware that scale is needed to succeed in the royalty game, and a combined entity would give them exactly that.

[cocopah] 26/8/2021 08:19

Odd RNS this morning. Perhaps its intention is to support the share price or maybe they’ve been inundated with enquiries. Anyhow on the subject of divis now that reporting is moving to $s I wouldn’t be surprised to see a bit of legerdemain on the %age payout moving forwards.

[johnrxx99] 26/8/2021 06:26

LLB - great work, many thanks.

[buywell3] 25/8/2021 22:31

The CEO has moved on

05-Jul-21 Sell Julian Treger 140.00 GBX 200,000 3,874,951
02-Jul-21 Sell Julian Treger 140.00 GBX 108,000 3,874,951
06-Jul-21 Sell Julian Treger 140.00 GBX 92,000 3,874,951
29-Jun-21 Sell Julian Treger 141.00 GBX 200,000 4,274,951

[gateside] 25/8/2021 21:05

Tipped as a BUY in IC today

[the deacon] 25/8/2021 17:05

I wonder with JT stepping down whether a merger with Altius Minerals takes a major step closer...I added this afternoon.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 25/8/2021 16:34

From the BRR interview QnA, the Incoa royalty will need funding in early 2022, later than I was expecting, but they are now a producer so another 1 in the pot subject to tranche2 funding...

VB deliveries are coming in on schedule with 20 tonne lots received..
Dugbe DFS Q1/Q2 2022
BHP / Noront acquisition subject to investor approval ..
No imminent new royalties, so a good chance to build cash and reduce debt..
Narrabri cost USD65M, carry value around USD47M and 32M income received, with inbound interest for it

Some selling the news today but nothing changes for the income portfolio, and we are very well set up for Q3/Q4 2021 and a strong outlook on longer range prices too...

[cocopah] 25/8/2021 15:08

Following LLB … thanks for the heads-up.