Anglo Pacific Share Discussion Threads

[johnrxx99] 12/8/2021 10:56

QP, for once I agree with you. Slowly but oh so slowly it will dawn on people that the old way of living aint the future - and neither is investment.

Fundamentals are now: sentiment is the future. I am considering my position with APF. If they wished, I'm fairly sure they could sell coal to the Chinese - they need it until they transition away, what 10 years or so but as a person, I have to consider my footprint on this world.

I have enough to live well for the rest of my life and I know you all don't, however, we all need to reflect now and again on what we do and how we do it.

Enough from me today.

GLA

[the deacon] 12/8/2021 08:48

Agree. JT has said on a few occasions that he thought the iron ore price was artificially high. I have no doubts he'll be on the ball there.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 12/8/2021 08:46

Cocopops, IIRC in an interview JT said they were open to selling the thermal coal side royalty, not sure if that meant they were actively looking for a buyer to further shift the portfolio towards green ESG, but we will have another snapshot end of August to see..

Our LIORC CAD50M / USD36M is tempting to take off the table I agree, and I would not be surprised if the strong share price there was sold into as iron ore prices soften and the share price has so far remained up at 48/49..

We also have 5M shares in treasury to sell at some point, but some tight juggling for 2021 as we maintain dividends and keep inside the lending boundaries..

[dartboard1] 12/8/2021 08:35

Poor sentiment on the industry may bring down share prices ... but commodity prices will not be impacted by ESG, they will go with demand/supply... and cash flow will follow

[cocopah] 12/8/2021 08:34

#LLB It might/will be an interesting call given our need to manage the debt covenants and the costs associated with servicing the debt itself. The last thing we want to see is some of our investment capital destroyed chasing LIORIC income. Just my musings, and whilst I agree we need to be driving income, the market usually also rewards companies for reducing costs. As we await the income for Q3, I am getting more sure that the share price is being impacted (in the short term) for paying dividends that are not deemed to be covered by income … yet.

[quepassa] 12/8/2021 08:31

With parts of Europe literally burning due to global warming ahead of influential COP 26, investor appetite for any investments which have exposure to coal will be further decimated.

It finally appears to be dawning on certain parties (but not all) that what has been -and still is- driving this share is primarily sentiment and not fundamentals.

Although APF is turning towards green commodities which is a positive step for shareholders, the existing coal exposure continues to exact a heavy and deleterious toll.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 12/8/2021 08:06

#Cocopops, we will soon have the H1 financials end of August, then we can see if any post reporting period events have happened, but for now LIORC is spinning off GBP1M per quarter in dividends so it is a tough call as income is what we are about, with project updates due on..

Incoa
Piaui
Dugbe
Noront now under BHP ownership on the ring of fire royalty
Narrabri
4 Mile
Amapa

[cocopah] 12/8/2021 08:03

I wonder if this is an opportunity for us to exit LIORC and reduce the debt?

[the deacon] 11/8/2021 16:38

Let's keep in mind that going forward the bulk of our revenue will come from cobalt, vanadium, copper and other green/renewable/21st century materials that JT and the company pick up. We aren't dependent on fossil fuels here.

[cocopah] 11/8/2021 15:29

I agree about coal and it makes me wonder/worry what ‘initiatives’ the COP26 will come up with. Undoubtedly there will be a lot of social and media pressure to act. For example governments may decide that those companies operating in ‘dirty’ energy might have to pay some kind of levy for green initiatives. 🤷‍a94;️

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 11/8/2021 10:25

#The Deacon, I spent some time digging around the Adaro site yesterday.., and as you point out thermal coal demand is not going away any time soon.., and met coal (100% carbon after coking) is without substitute for steel making, same for Nickel and Cobalt..

Fact is developing countries are still building coal fired power stations, it is only a very few more advanced economies building nuclear ones, and in the light of Fukushima some of those have since reversed into gas fired ones instead..

#Dartboard1, interesting permitting developments at Whitehaven/Narrabri, around 6MTPA, with a 1% royalty, the proposed south extension would extend the life of the mine from 2031 to 2044..

[dartboard1] 11/8/2021 10:20

Coal is not going away. You can't make steel for EVs and wind turbines without it. An irony that seems to have not sunk in in some quarters of the green revolution...

[dartboard1] 11/8/2021 10:17

There is zero value attributed to getting approval for the Narrabri south extension. But approval looks more than probable. There were 82 submissions to the project plan, only 3 of these were objections. Considering many submissions were from government agencies, gov approval must be a given now.

[dogberry202000] 11/8/2021 08:34

"the new gradually overlaps the old"

[dogberry202000] 11/8/2021 08:32

Good posts.we need those coal assets because coal is likely to remain important for steel-making and other industrial uses for several years and the price of coking coal is strong and could well remain so for far longer than some might imagine. The reality is that APF's "transition" will take several years in which the new gradually overlaps the new.Thankfully, JT has positioned APF for this change to take place.

[the deacon] 11/8/2021 07:55

....and there still is not a large scale alternative to met coal. Certainly not one that can meet the steel demand for global infrastructure spend.

[the deacon] 11/8/2021 07:54

Take a look at Adaro's most recent presentation. Coal (of all varieties) front and centre of their strategy. As much as we in the West would like to think the rest of the world is ready to transition away from fossil fuels, the reality is they're not.

[johnrxx99] 11/8/2021 03:19

This is assuming the royalty payer keeps digging. Don't get me wrong, I'm heavy APF but looking to the future.

Large companies are looking to transform away from their current means of production. Tabacco and oil being two that spring to mind. If put under political pressure, Rio Tinto may bow to it if it serves their business.

None of us know what may happen, I'm just voicing my concerns.

GLA

[woodhawk] 10/8/2021 18:54

Haven't looked in lately - I must say I'm surprised to see this at 130p-ish!! I know where my divis will be going in just over a week if the share price remains anywhere near this depressed level. In any event, 3 more divi payments due over the next six months. Pretty much all of the rest of my stocks have been picking up recently. APF next? Looking pretty oversold on my near-term charts - must be due a bounce soon.

[dogberry202000] 10/8/2021 18:42

A good opportunity to add - and I gladly did so. At around £1.30 with oustanding assets in mainly energy metals and a divi approaching 7% - what's not to like! For me, this is a cornerstone holding.

[cocopah] 10/8/2021 17:47

#LLB I absolutely agree with your comments, I just think that the share price will remain subdued until evidence of the income is seen. Tbf I am long here so blips in the share price (as long as they are just blips) aren’t a big worry. I believe in the strategy and hopefully we will see that reflected in the share price by the year-end.👍🏻

p.s. I’m not as concerned as I am with CEY! 🙈😂😂

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 10/8/2021 17:27

#Cocopops, all the ingredients are in the bowl so to speak now, so we will have to wait and see what it produces in Q3/Q4/H2.. :o)

On problems happening, mining is difficult and dangerous and problems do happen all the time so it is a unrealistic to expect the full portfolio running at 100% all the time, that just is not going to happen, or if it does it will not be for long, if we have 10+ assets there will always be a problem with 1 somewhere in the world, which is why diversification is so important..

Currently we are doing very well with the exception of four mile which was a zero in Q1, they need to be contributing what they should and I would like to see some progress here soon in the interim H1 report due end of this month..

[cocopah] 10/8/2021 15:48

#LLB I hear you, I really do. I’m just a little anxious about execution and I wouldn’t want to hear any excuses about flooding or strikes (for example) there’s only so many times one can cry wolf.

We really do need to deliver £13m in Q3 and whilst it should be very doable (as you point out), the proof is in the pudding. If we wanted a more stable and realistic share price I believe using their Twitter account to communicate (say) Q3 VB deliveries et al would help. It would certainly be more beneficial than the continuous “transformational deal“ comms. 🤷‍a94;️

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 10/8/2021 15:33

From our update 28.07.2021, while prices for our commodities were weaker in Q1 2021, they began to recover in Q2 2021 in particular, cobalt prices are up +20% in the last month and are higher than our VB Investment case. In addition, both copper and iron ore have increased by over 20% year to date and our Mantos Blancos and LIORC revenues have benefitted from this.

Anglo Pacific expects H2 2021 to be stronger, in light of a rally in cobalt prices and the full effect of the Voisey’s Bay stream being recognised in the Group’s portfolio, strength in copper and iron ore prices and a recovery in the coal market..

Portfolio contribution for Q2 2021 of £9.4M
Portfolio contribution of £16.2M in H1 2021

Our VB H2 should bring in around GBP 7.0M at current prices (Q3 GBP 3.5M) and our deliveries per quarter start to settle down into a pattern..

VB + Kestel have room to match our H1 stand alone with the rest of the portfolio on top setting our stall out nicely for 2022 ..