Anglo Pacific Share Discussion Threads

[melody9999] 28/7/2021 08:21

cobalt 20% price rise should help too

[cocopah] 28/7/2021 08:19

I thought the results were disappointing. The lower end of expectations would’ve been £10m and the higher end somewhere near £11.5m. The upcoming divi is £8m and full year on ‘stable’ divi will be £19m. It will take some performance in H2 to deliver the full year desired results to support this. I’m here for the long term but these results don’t leave a nice taste in the mouth. No wonder JT offloaded those shares!🙈

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 28/7/2021 07:56

+38% over Q1 is fine by me.. :o)

Only missed my expectations by GBP -0.6M, but because the VB deliveries are getting phased in, we got 5 deliveries in March/Q1, and 3 in July so the stream is ramping up to full size slower than I had anticipated, but guarantees a full Q3 for Cobalt..

[fandango4] 28/7/2021 07:48

Unfortunately I don’t think they are good; the failure to refer to expectations and use of “stable” is often a sign of a miss on earnings. Full year 21 revenues are estimated at 48.1m. Given we’re at 16.2m at the half year, this seems a real stretch even with commodity prices having improved. I hope I am wrong, but I wasn’t impressed by the TU this morning.

[johnrxx99] 28/7/2021 07:27

Can't work out if it was a good update or not.

[masurenguy] 28/7/2021 07:17

Half Year 2021 Trading Update

This update is ahead of the release of the full Group audited half year results on 25 August 2021.

Highlights

-- Portfolio contribution(1) for Q2 2021 of GBP9.4m, a 38.2% increase compared to GBP6.8m in Q1 2021, includes maiden deliveries under the Voisey's Bay stream following completion of the acquisition at the end of Q1 2021. The Group's Q2 2021 portfolio contribution has benefitted from 5 deliveries from the stream, and when combined with the 3 deliveries thus far in July 2021, the Group has realised total proceeds of US$4.0m (GBP2.8m)

-- Portfolio contribution of GBP16.2m in H1 2021 compared to GBP19.1m in H1 2020, reflects lower coking coal prices and volumes at both Kestrel and Narrabri, primarily in Q1 2021, but is offset by maiden contributions from the Group's Voisey's Bay stream of GBP1.7m

-- Coal prices in the earlier part of 2021 were impacted by the Chinese import ban on Australian coal - this position reversed in late Q2 2021, resulting in a more favourable outlook for H2 2021

-- Dividends from LIORC of C$2.75 per share declared in H1 2021 compared to C$0.80 per share in H1 2020 - benefitting from continued strong iron ore pricing throughout the first six months of 2021

-- Realised copper and vanadium prices were higher in the period which benefitted Mantos Blancos and Maracás Menchen revenue (the latter was impacted by a one-off off-take adjustment charge in H1 2020)

-- All the Group's producing assets are back in operation, following the recommencement of activities at the McClean Lake Mill after a period of COVID-19 related care and maintenance (as announced at the Group's Q1 2021 Trading Update)

-- Net debt of GBP78.7m at the end of June 2021 (GBP24.4m at the beginning of the year) reflecting the acquisition of the Voisey's Bay cobalt stream in Q1 2021

-- With US$29m of undrawn borrowings, US$39m residual position in LIORC and US$8.0m of treasury shares, the Group has financing flexibility of US$76m to finance further growth opportunities

Anglo Pacific expects H2 2021 to be stronger, in light of a rally in cobalt prices and the full effect of the Voisey's Bay stream being recognised in the Group's portfolio, strength in copper and iron ore prices and a recovery in the coal market, supported by the backdrop of strong infrastructure spending and continued anticipated demand for 21(st) century commodities

Julian Treger, Chief Executive Officer of the Company, commented: "Anglo Pacific has had a stable first half of 2021, with 8 cobalt deliveries now processed under our Voisey's Bay stream which has generated cash to the end of July 2021 of US$4.0m. Voisey's Bay was a transformational acquisition during the period for Anglo, not only in terms of it being the Group's largest and most significant transaction to date, but also in terms of transitioning our portfolio towards 21(st) century commodities that support a more sustainable future. It is pleasing to see the stream operate smoothly and in line with our expectations.

While prices for our commodities were weaker in Q1 2021, they began to recover in Q2 2021. In particular, cobalt prices are up 20% in the last month and are higher than our Voisey's Bay investment case. In addition, both copper and iron ore have increased by over 20% year to date and our Mantos Blancos and LIORC revenues have benefitted from this.

It was also pleasing to see the coal markets turn during the second quarter, with coking coal now more than $200/t (from a low of $100/t) and thermal coal at $150/t, which should benefit our revenue in H2 2021. Infrastructure spending should continue to benefit iron ore, coking coal and copper whilst the longer-term fundamentals for cobalt and vanadium remain positive due to continued expected demand from electric vehicle and battery manufacturers. Spot prices continue to remain higher than consensus prices in the near-term, and with our producing assets all in operation we expect a stronger performance from our portfolio in the second half of the year.

We look forward to updating the market in relation to our investment activity at the half year, and we remain busy advancing our pipeline in order to continue adding royalties and streams to our portfolio."

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 27/7/2021 16:58

Good progress at our Ring of fire royalty today as super major BHP buys out Noront resources for USD325M..

APF has a 1% life of mine NSR royalty over a number of claims on the Black Thor, Black Label and Big Daddy chromite deposits owned by TSX-listed Noront Resources Limited (‘Noront’;), in the Ring of Fire region of Northern Ontario, Canada..

The company’s first project is a 100%-owned, high-grade, nickel, copper and platinum group element (PGE) deposit called Eagle’s Nest. It is the largest high-grade nickel discovery in Canada since Voisey’s Bay and the most advanced project in the Ring of Fire. The next projects in our pipeline are the Blackbird and Black Thor chromite deposits in conjunction with a Ferrochrome Production Facility in Sault Ste. Marie..

BHP have the weight to progress their mines which in turn will unlock another of our royalties and future income pipeline.. :o)

[grahamburn] 26/7/2021 16:52

Aren't H1 figures due around 27 August?

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 26/7/2021 10:41

Good to see the bid rising and spread tightening up, news inbound, could be our Q2/H1 update tomorrow..?

Cobalt at USD52,500 per tonne yields us around USD4.5M/GBP3.25M income a quarter and the tonnages produced at VB are only going 1 way as they head further underground..

[edit] #grahamburn

Operational update 24.07.2019
Interim financials 22.08.2019
Operational update 24.07.2020
Interim financials 27.08.2020

[quepassa] 22/7/2021 18:02

Cobalt.

Jervois Mining requested that its shares be suspended from trading on the ASX and TSX a few days ago pending an announcement by them of a potential major sector acquisition and fund-raising.

Announcement likely imminent.

Recent article in Street Talk section of Australian Financial Review refers:-

hXXps://www.afr.com/street-talk/cobalt-kid-jervois-mining-readies-big-buy-raising-20210718-p58aoh


Cobalt sector hot. Benign jurisdictions add further value.

If deal progresses will make Jervois an increasingly important player - especially for burgeoning USA cobalt requirements and demand

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 22/7/2021 07:19

#Cocopops, it may be the case that a month lag is the result, we know the VB deal completed 12.03.2021 and income from this did not make our Q1 update closing on 31.03.2021..

The Q2 update looks like next week now and we can see the breakdown, then we can calculate back from the income number, but I expect Q3 will be for a full 3 months of the stream...

Vale reported their Q2 on 19.07.2021, so I think it is most likely to be a month lag now so they know what proportion of the 463 tonnes was to be assigned to APF..

[cocopah] 21/7/2021 22:33

Cheers LLB, I guess if the Kestrel income is similar and the other contributions add up to another £3m we could see £11m reported this quarter. One thing I’m trying to get my head round is the timing of the revenues from VB … do you know if there is much of a lag between the tonnage mined and the sales made/revenue received?

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 20/7/2021 17:37

2019 VB Cobalt 1608 tonnes
2020 VB Cobalt 1592 tonnes
H1-2021 Cobalt 939 tonnes (+27%) as they head underground and grades improve..
Q2-2021 463 tonnes, or APF share 105 tonnes or roughly USD4.3M income, plus some carryover from March 2021 tbc, call it USD5M / GBP3.5M and change, results this week..?..

June 2021 - Vale announces first ore at Voisey’s Bay Mine Extension.. :o)

Home to one of the largest nickel deposits in the world, the transition to underground involves the development of two underground mines – Reid Brook and Eastern Deeps - extending the life of Vale’s Labrador operations and achieving production of 40,000 tons of nickel in concentrate at a peak annual production rate of 2.6 million tonnes by 2025, with about 20,000 tonnes copper and 2,600 tonnes of cobalt as byproducts. The project is 65% complete, and Eastern Deeps start-up is expected for 2022..

Forecasting at 2,600 tonnes PA and USD 50,000/tonne Cobalt should result in a 593 tonne share for APF and USD24M a year income or GBP17M subject to FX, and with upside if Cobalt takes off..

[dartboard1] 20/7/2021 16:38

Vale released Voisey Bay cobalt production yesterday. Up 27% on 2020 H1.

[cocopah] 16/7/2021 15:15

My only nervousness is about JT selling. I am persuading myself that it’s all about his asset allocation and permitted trading window (as communicated) but it sure ain’t helping the s/p. If the results don’t stand-up to scrutiny then I won’t be the only one asking questions. Let’s hope heh! 🤞🏻🤞🏻8077;🏻

[grahamburn] 16/7/2021 14:54

Masurenguy.

Surprised someone with your experience has fallen into the classic misinterpretation of current yield versus historic cost price yield.

Any yield calculation/comparison must be based on the CURRENT yield because that is what you get based on what the shares are WORTH now.

I too invested last autumn, but if I am comparing potential yields from other shares in the current market, I always look at current yields and capital value, not the original capital value/yields. If a share price goes up the yield falls (given the same dividend) but conversely, if a share price falls the yield goes up (but you've lost capital value). That in itself illustrates the basic fallacy in your approach.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 16/7/2021 09:43

We do seem to be stuck around 140p waiting for results to evidence the increase in income, but at 6%, (or more for holders adding during the share buyback) it is a hold, direction will be underpinned by the Q2/H1 results..

Update more than likely next week.. :o)

24.07.2019
24.07.2020

[masurenguy] 16/7/2021 08:29

Yes - the current dividend is 6.4% and above 7.5% for those who invested last autumn ! 😊

[illiswilgig] 16/7/2021 08:27

cocopah - yes my thinking is also 1.60p or there abouts.

But in the meantime there are also considerable dividend payments which add to my gain and cashflow,

cheers

[cocopah] 16/7/2021 08:23

We seem to be stuck at a share price of c£1.40 now, I’m still hopeful of £1.60 by y/e (less hopeful of higher). This coming update will be crucial for confidence. Fingers crossed.

[sporazene2] 15/7/2021 21:36

coking coal price strong in Q2 and predicted to hold firm for the 2nd half of the year. We're getting 15% for everything over $150, so given the cobalt price has firmed up to 50k/tonne, this quarters update and outlook will be interesting