Anglo Pacific Share Discussion Threads

[stevie blunder] 02/7/2021 10:25

Interesting podcast, Rozencwajg has a lot to say about the huge copper use in “clean” electricity, Also how the log-normal grade distribution in most mines means that it will be difficult to continue replacing reserves.he has a longer term target about 3 x current prices

Worth having a look at the grozen.com website, they cover battery metals and oil as well

[cocopah] 02/7/2021 08:21

LLB - continuing good news on the price of cobalt. Cigar Lake is in Saskatchewan which isn’t quite as hot as British Columbia, so hopefully they’ll get things under control but the fire did look massive. A little surprised that there hasn’t been any more gradual buying-in to the dividend yet. 🤷‍a94;️

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 02/7/2021 06:52

USD 50,500 per tonne for Cobalt this morning..., how far will it run this time ..?

Cobalt is the commodity without substitute for high quality steel, and NCM battery tech..

Not a bad way to start July off... :o)

Cigar lake is an interest and principle repayment loan at 10% until we hit the stream trigger point, 48/50C must be unbearable over there, and sensible to protect the plant as well as the staff until it reduces..

[cocopah] 01/7/2021 23:29

Deacon that looks scary! Sensible precaution, pity the workers who live nearby, fingers crossed they can get it under control, though the temperatures there are relentless atm.🤞ㇿ5;👍🏻

[the deacon] 01/7/2021 22:02

Cigar Lake being shut as a precaution due to wild fires raging nearby. See the footage in the video below.https://twitter.com/Tiredcanadianma/status/1410679610065526784?s=19

[dartboard1] 01/7/2021 13:28

Sorry if it's been discussed recently, does anyone have news on whether the narrabri development may be approved. And the resource in that area...

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 30/6/2021 17:54

AFAICR, Julian had a divorce settlement a while back and had to sell some shares then too, today’s RNS could be the residual division of assets and/or similar unpleasantness associated with the conclusion of events which can drag on for some time..

I do not see for a moment that it was a reflection on his confidence in the company, and/or investment decisions made, Cobalt is up and just about to deliver for us :o)

An RNS of the facts is mandatory, but unfortunately the motives behind it are not..

[edit] another rise for Cobalt overnight and knocking on the door of USD50,000 a tonne now

[cocopah] 30/6/2021 16:08

Grahamburn Sounds like a logical explanation. I just think that anything like this so close to Q2 results is, to say the least, clumsy. As I said it’s a small part of his holding but the ‘headline̵7; will be “he is selling”. It doesn’t seem to have had any impact on the share price and investors will soon be piling-in for the divi anyway.👍7995;

[lord gnome] 30/6/2021 16:06

I'm out. GLA.

[grahamburn] 30/6/2021 15:31

Assuming Kings Chapel International is operating as an investment vehicle for him (ie running a range of investments with clearly defined goals), then it may have pre-determined percentages for each area of investment which will be altered according to a specific formula. The key sentence in the RNS is:

"This transaction formed part of the rebalancing of Kings Chapel International Limited's portfolio."

In short, it will have been done almost at arm's length.

Could be wrong, but that sentence and the word "rebalancing" point in that direction.

[cocopah] 30/6/2021 15:25

Good time to top-up?

[cocopah] 30/6/2021 15:23

Good news on the cobalt price LLB … wish it was the same for gold! Getting crucified at CEY!😂㈳4;😂

[cocopah] 30/6/2021 15:23

tommygriff I know it’s not a lot in comparison to his total holding … but relatively close to the Q2 results … I found it strange too.

It’s not impacted the s/p, we are still continuing to bump along at £1.40ish so probably not much to read into it, just odd.🤷‍♂️

I thought he would’ve waited until he’d reaped the divi.😂

[tommygriff] 30/6/2021 15:00

Found it strange that he's just done a new deal that's supposedly transformational and he sells shares!

[cocopah] 30/6/2021 13:59

Any thoughts on JT’s sale of some of his shares today?

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 30/6/2021 06:33

Cobalt making a strong recovery after a pullback last month and edging closer to USD50,000 per tonne now.. round numbers make for easy maths.. :o)

[masurenguy] 29/6/2021 07:31

On 24 June 2021, Spruce Bluff Resources Ltd, Closely Associated ("PCA") with NXD Mr. Robert Stan, acquired 11,500 shares at a price of 140.98p per share.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 27/6/2021 17:58

#Cocopops, on income for 2021 I now get approx :

Kestrel - GBP18.1M (as per 2020)
Maracás Menchen - 3.5M
Narrabri - 3.5M
Mantos Blancos - 4.0M
Four Mile - 0.4M
EVBC - 2.8M
LIORC | Dividends - 4.0M
McClean Lake - principal repayment - 1M
McClean Lake & Jogjakarta - interest - 2M
Voiseys Bay - 10M
Incoa - Nil

Total = GBP49.3M, over 50M if we take up the Incoa 2nd tranche sooner than later, and with upside from Kestrel IF prices stay where they are for the year..

Looking forward we can add in Piaui, Incoa, Dugbe as Kestrel winds off..

Q2/H1 late July and we can see where we are.. :o)

[cocopah] 27/6/2021 15:27

Great update LLB. Thank you. I just think it might be tight on income/profit this year, possibly giving more opportunities to top-up. As I intend to hold long-term it’s all looking very positive.👍🏻😎

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 27/6/2021 08:55

#Cocopops, revisiting earlier income expectations after the LIORC disposal with reduced dividends, then the reduced Kestrel numbers did have a large impact, but we are very well positioned with the VB acquisition now adding and with such strong commodity prices for 2021, our Q2 income will set the stall out neatly and we can see the results in H1 financials end of July, my recent project sweep revealed..

(1) Incoa are now open for business and made their 1st delivery last week, Orion funded tranche 1, and our 2nd tranche funding of USD20M was due in 2021 when they become operational and this could be paid any time with our 1.23% GRR adding USD2M a year for 10 years then USD3M income forever more (LOM) starting as soon as the 2nd tranche investment is made ..

(2) Pasofino released their Dugbe PEA last week and the DFS is expected end of 21 early 22, our 2% NSR from this project could add USD4/5M a year from 2024..

(3) Salamanca is still grinding forward through permitting..

(4) Piaui is pushing on now with the pilot plant producing and earning from Q2-2022, they target full scale production from 2025 adding USD4M a year, but if APF go with the 4.25% GRR investment upgrade (+70M) that goes up to USD14/15M income a year..

(5) VB adding USD13-16M in 2021 but expected c22M income a year average from 2022..

(6) + anything new work in progress we have yet to be informed on..

Now Incoa are operational I suspect this will be the next news we hear probably in the Q2/H1..

The chart held up as expected around 139/140p, buyers came back in Friday afternoon, and I was 1 of them, XD 08.07.2021 for 3.75p..

Q3 next week aleady... :o)

[cocopah] 27/6/2021 00:34

Fingers crossed heh! 2022 I see no problem, however Q2 will tell us whether we are on target this year and what our ability to reduce the debt looks like. For me £1.60 at year-end is about the best we can hope for now. I’d like to see us hit £50m/£55m+ revenue next year which is the minimum to see a £400m valuation IMHO.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 26/6/2021 18:34

#Cocopops, good timing as I was just looking at it too, and as rising commodity prices filter through into stronger royalty payments but to hit GBP45M we will need to see:

Q1 - GBP 6.8M reported
Q2 - GBP 10-11M estimate (with VB contribution of GBP3.0M)
Q3 - GBP13.6M estimate
Q4 - GBP13.6M estimate

Hopefully we can get 4 mile resolved and get them paying what they are supposed to, Adaro are forecasting pretty much the same volumes for this year as last year from Kestrel, but this will benefit from the higher sale prices, there is much to look forward to from the pricing of coking coal, copper, vanadium, cobalt and anything new to come into the portfolio during 2021..

GBP19M just about covers the dividends at 9p on 212M shares, so we need to do a bit better than that to cover it properly.. :o)

21-May-21 RBC Capital Markets Outperform 141.80p 220.00p 220.00p Reiteration
14-Apr-2 Berenberg Bank Buy 136.20p 200.00p 180.00p Reiteration

[cocopah] 26/6/2021 17:29

LLB There are roughly 213m share in issue which at my (revised) year-end target price of £1.60 is equal to a market cap of c£341m.

Analysts seem to think revenue of £45m and profit of £19m for 2021. Q1 was £6.8m revenue so we need a bump for the next three quarters (12.7m/qtr) to get there. Do you think it’s doable? I was thinking that £10m would be a good uplift from Q1.🤷‍♂️

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 26/6/2021 12:43

Coking coal is on a rip right now in June and we will have to see how it holds up, but it could certainly offset the reduced production levels expected as our panels are mined out..

Next update for Q2/H1 due around 24.07.2021, and we can see what 3 or 4 months worth of the VB stream has added to income.. :o)