Anglo Pacific Share Discussion Threads

[quepassa] 25/8/2017 17:31

Coal in terminal decline has caused a knock-on decline in coal prices.

Decline in coal prices means downwards revaluations of coal assets.

Kestrel marked down a whopping 8% at half-year.

Never good to see the value of assets held as investments go into downwards reval.


A vicious negative cycle.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[kenmitch] 25/8/2017 17:12

QuePassa.

Even if you are right about coal being in terminal decline that doesn't mean all coal shares should be avoided now. That decline can take years.

Should all oil shares be sold because oil might be in terminal decline?

What matters when investing is now and immediate future prospects looking perhaps as far ahead as 2 years and not what might happen in another 10 years.

I've held APF for a couple of years and for now it's a wonderful income share, with very good capital gain on top, and with good chance of higher dividends, and further share price increase to come.

In 10 years time APF could have gone bust if you are right about coal in terminal decline. So what for investors looking for winning investments now.

[quepassa] 25/8/2017 15:55

Yawn yawn yawn.

QP

[weeeck] 25/8/2017 15:32

QP
Just close your short and move on. There must be worse companies than APF to short.

[quepassa] 25/8/2017 15:26

No more coal mines left in UK.

No more UK coal burners by early 2020's.


China will follow in due course.



coal is in terminal decline.

Anyone wonder why the value of Kestrel was written down in the last results which meant yet another loss.

"-- Kestrel valuation GBP107.5m at June 2017, down 8% on GBP116.9m at the beginning of the year - mainly due to resource depletion and forward pricing assumptions"

Down 8% in six months, that is a whopping great figure in such a short time-frame.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[weeeck] 25/8/2017 15:13

QP,
You are being just a bit selective with your information.
Deep mining for coal in the UK became too expensive but twenty-six open cast mines still remain open and are profitable.

As for China, The coal powered generating stations around Beijing were closed because of the air pollution within the city boundaries. China will still continue to build new ones between now and 2020.Despite the cuts to coal production and falling percentage of coal in the energy mix, electricity consumption is expected to grow by 3.6-4 percent over 2016 to 2020 according to the Thirteenth Plan (2016–2020). According to the same five-year plan, coal power capacity will be expanded from 960 GW to under 1,100 GW by the end of 2020 to meet some of the continued growth in electricity demand. Indeed in the first two months of 2016, China had added 22 GW of capacity, 14 GW of which was coal, according to the China Electricity Council.

So not quite as black and white as you make out.

[quepassa] 25/8/2017 14:48

SV.

No I have nothing but respect for the many miners who have toiled for centuries in the mines. I think civic statuary is an important part of our heritage.

But part of our heritage it is. It is yesterday's fuel. Just like a horse and carriage is yesterday's mode of transport. and just like the automotive internal combustion engine will soon also be.



Things move on. Get better. Evolve. Develop.

Coal was yesterday's mass energy source but is now being fast supplanted by greener , better, more efficient, less harmful, less polluting energy sources.

The inexorable decline of coal is only too clear. Beijing turned off its last coal burners a while ago and, despite President Trump, the global race is on and gathering pace fast to lower carbon emissions and this will sound the death knoll for coal.

No more coal mines left in the UK. all coal UK fired power stations to be closed by the early 2020's.

Coal is in terminal decline.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[weeeck] 25/8/2017 14:14

Coal like oil may be yesterday's fuel but we are still going to need an awful lot of it for the next 20 or 30 years.

[semper vigilans] 25/8/2017 13:58

QP - I presume you would want statues of coal miners all pulled down as you would have them historically in the same bracket as people involved and benefitting from the slave trade?

[neilyb675] 25/8/2017 12:16

Looking like a turn around share. Management done well.imvhpo ✔

[christh] 25/8/2017 11:31

hopefully he has moved on, never to be seen again.
APF will thrive, heading to 200p as my esteem friend Neilyb675
pointed out.

[spectoacc] 25/8/2017 11:18

A 135p AT today, I always sell too soon :)

@QP gone quiet?

[gavapentin] 24/8/2017 20:58

Good strong close

[ruethewhirl] 24/8/2017 20:24

Might be interested again if we can get and stay above 130.

[christh] 24/8/2017 15:56

Neilyb675 24 Aug '17 - 15:49 - 8363 of 8363 1 0
200p coming

I second this.

Another upgrade from Macquarie with a target price of 185p

Epic.... Company......................Broker....New Rec....New Target
APF...Anglo Pacific Group PLC.....Macquarie...Outperform....185p

[neilyb675] 24/8/2017 15:49

200p coming

[spectoacc] 24/8/2017 15:34

Largely out of APF, though not a reflection on what has been a great co for me. In early 50's, out 90p on way up a year ago, and again today. Substantial divis in past 18 months on top.

Good luck holders.

[christh] 23/8/2017 14:22

BROKERS UPGRADE AngloPacific 23 August 2017
Epic......Company.....................Broker.........New Rec.......Previous Rec......New Target.......Previous Target
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
APF... Anglo Pacific Group PLC...finnCap....... Buy......Under Review........... 150p
APF....Anglo Pacific Group PL... Peel Hunt..... Buy........Buy....................... 156p.................... 156p

[buywell3] 23/8/2017 08:36

Net assets of GBP209.6m (December 31, 2016: GBP210.1m) translating into net assets per share of 116p (December 31, 2016: 124p)

[lord gnome] 23/8/2017 08:25

Good enough for me. Plenty of cash being generated to pay the dividends which, is all that I am here for.

[spectoacc] 23/8/2017 07:56

Accounting loss only, based on write-down of Kestrel - itself based on how much RIO is mining out of it atm.. Very strong free cash flow, zero debt (cleared after the year end and even after payment of the dividend). Commodities prices above expectations so far.

The one negative I can see is the costs starting to climb back again, but having read in detail how much of that is share-based payments based on performance.

[quepassa] 23/8/2017 07:47

loss after tax of GBP2.5m and loss per share of 1.46p (H1 2016: GBP10.2m, GBP5.4m and 3.18p respectively)