Anglo Pacific Share Discussion Threads

[draytonpark] 16/2/2017 23:28

Macquirie report on Apf very expansive and informative.They like the Denison deal and give APF an outperform and are raising the TP to £2.10 Well worth a read

[christh] 15/2/2017 15:00

A buying opportunity today!

[quepassa] 14/2/2017 17:57

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APF down 2.4% today.

QP

[spectoacc] 14/2/2017 17:04

Perfectly happy with the way they did it thanks.

[spectoacc] 14/2/2017 14:48

As a holder, I'm perfectly happy with how they played it. They picked a couple of duffers along the way, which didn't help, but you can almost guarantee that if they'd done as you suggest, they'd have done it several years too soon, squandered the money, and needed a rescue rights to resolve the resulting debt.

[weeeck] 03/2/2017 08:50

Good article on Japanese imports of coal from Australia. After Fukoshima they are building new coal burning power plants at a pace.All sounds good for APF.

[ruethewhirl] 01/2/2017 19:07

Excellent analysis, could be a catalyst to finally break us convincingly through 130.

[bountyhunter] 01/2/2017 17:33

regarding the loan yes "$40.8 million (GBP24.8 million) thirteen-year loan with an interest rate of 10 per cent. per annum payable to Anglo Pacific" can't be bad for APF;
I guess the initial drop this morning was down to uncertainty re the placing price which turned out to be 125p

[stevie blunder] 01/2/2017 15:28

I got that slightly wrong, pretax rises by £1.9 M and THEN the extra dividend of 700k comes off. I think the dilution to existing shareholders stays the same.

[spectoacc] 01/2/2017 14:54

125p placing price, I'll take that. Cursing not taking the 123.85p quote I had this morning when they were 121/125!

[hyden] 01/2/2017 14:50

I also think the placing is going well and that the market is warming to the deal, hence the price action. :-)

[hyden] 01/2/2017 14:49

bounty, whilst the agreement back-dates milling proceeds to 07-16, APF don't get anything until total throughput exceeds 215mlbs which is about 9 - 12 years away. Mine life is only expected to be 12 years so the value of the royalty is largely dependent upon upside to the mine life / annual throughput. It is the loan itself which is the value creator here and I agree with Stevie's numbers.

[gavapentin] 01/2/2017 14:23

Diversifies out of coking coal at least

[illiswilgig] 01/2/2017 13:50

Thanks Stevie. Very useful.

Bit of a curates egg? Good in parts?

Perhaps what it does signal is that the APF of old has gone.

Somehow I doubt this will be the last deal of this kind. Could be an interesting ride,

I am likely to buy a few more if it dips significantly,

cheers

[stevie blunder] 01/2/2017 13:17

Placing of £13.7 million should only be about 12 million shares. That raises the dividend cost to the company by about 700k. The rest of the funding comes initially from debt of say £12 M. Interest rate say 5%, 600k.
Income from loan of £24.8M at 10% , £2.48M. Net pretax increase about 1.2M
Broker forecasts for '17 are pretax of £32.5M.
Shares in issue are being increased by 7% for an increase of about 4% in pretax, so a slight dilution.
However the interest costs should decrease as this year's royalties from Kestrel land on the mat.
I see this as helping underpin the dividend and decreasing the risk of holding this as an income stock.
On the down side there is no exposure to commodity prices.

[bountyhunter] 01/2/2017 09:02

however "Anglo Pacific is entitled to payment in respect of toll milling revenues backdated to July 1, 2016." and "The transaction should be accretive to our 2017 income" so yes I think the net effect depends on the dilution factor due to the placing

[steeplejack] 01/2/2017 08:00

Looking forward the acquisition might be earnings accretive as well as strategic but short term,there's the placing to be contended with and an earnings downgrade for this year.

[bountyhunter] 01/2/2017 07:41

I agree and was particularly encouraged by this statement from the CEO:

"Commenting on the acquisition, Julian Treger, Chief Executive Officer of Anglo Pacific, said:

"This transaction ticks all the boxes for Anglo Pacific and moves forward our growth and diversification in a material way. The transaction should be accretive to our 2017 income, building on the more than doubling of income in 2016, which we now estimate to be in the range of GBP19.5m to GBP20.5m following receipt of the final payment amount from Rio Tinto in respect of our Kestrel royalty."

[spectoacc] 01/2/2017 07:16

Looks an excellent deal announced this morning, but depending on what price the placing is at. Won't be happy if there's much dilution.

[rcturner2] 30/1/2017 11:43

There was a positive note in last week's IC in the tips update section. Final part of the update says:

"Analysts at BMO Capital Markets expect this year's dividends to increase to 7p, against EPS of 18p. Buy at 131p."

[christh] 27/1/2017 07:28

soon to 150p next milestone and then 180p.

The divi could be reviewd and increased to 8p-10p

[spectoacc] 26/1/2017 09:14

A couple of 1.5m trades through at 132p I see, seems to be giving it a long-overdue kick.

[ruethewhirl] 24/1/2017 04:48

Would like to see a close ABOVE 135 very soon given the commodity train is rumbling on.