Anglo Pacific Share Discussion Threads

[stevie blunder] 28/11/2016 09:15

Contract coal prices for Q1 2017 will be interesting, coking coal contracts for q3 2016 were about 200$ apparently but spot prices are still much higher going into December.

"China's output curbs will hold up coal prices'



While Mr Zhao said prices would be "relatively high" next year, he still expects them to ease from current levels. He nominated a price of 550 yuan ($107) a tonne for domestic thermal coal with an energy value of 5,500 kilocalories, compared with a current trading price of about 700 yuan.

[ruethewhirl] 25/11/2016 08:29

"Anglo Pacific Group PLC (LON:APF) shares have the scope to advance a further 25% from their current price."

"That at least is the opinion of BMO Capital, which increased its target price for the stock by 15% to 150p a share."

I'd feel better if price gyrations were happening between 140-150 instead of 120-130.

Anglo share price seems to be a laggard given the price increases in its key commodities.

[sammu] 24/11/2016 11:34

No issue as far as I can see there. That's about iron ore, not coal.

[spectoacc] 21/11/2016 09:21

Minor point, but does this threatened Oz tax affect APF's RIO income? ie will RIO mine less in APF's royalty area - already threat to shut down over Xmas. (I see it as a problem for RIO at company level, not for APF - though it could slow down royalties).

[pbutterworth1] 20/11/2016 17:40

ruethewhirl - I agree. I smell a share price getting too cheap here against rising coal prices. Monday - I am in more DYOR and GL

[lord gnome] 18/11/2016 09:11

Silly boy! Trailing stop loss got taken out at 122p on this morning's tree shake. Watch and wait now.

[weeeck] 11/11/2016 09:42

Nuclear Power Plants are being shut down all over the world due to safety concerns. Many mothballed coal burning power stations are being recommissioned.
All good for APF.

[stevie blunder] 11/11/2016 09:28

Decent analysis of the surge in coal prices here:


Also some crystal ball gazing:

"Macquarie forecasts coking coal to average US$200 a ton this quarter, before falling back to an average of US$150 a ton next year and US$120 the following year. It projects thermal coal will also fall following an estimated average of roughly US$83 a ton this quarter."

Given that this massive price rise was unpredicted, I wouldn't give much for forecasts
from this point. They will be wrong, we just don't know in which direction......

[spectoacc] 09/11/2016 16:09

APF +3% but RIO +5.7%, still feels like a lot more to go on APF (famous last words).

[dgellissnr] 09/11/2016 09:54

trump is good for coal get in

[csmwssk12hu] 09/11/2016 00:05

Wonder if we will get upgrade here

[ruethewhirl] 08/11/2016 00:51

Aussie Met coal now at $US289.30 a tonne - up 7% in a day.

[csmwssk12hu] 08/11/2016 00:12

Coal prices rising sharply these will follow imho dyor

[spectoacc] 07/11/2016 15:06

The way coal's still going, can't rule it out - though they didn't yet know the price RIO had achieved (and therefore their cut of it). Also, rally was needed for APF just to get back to divi cover, let alone specials. But all looking good so far!

[ruethewhirl] 06/11/2016 09:58

Expected a special dividend with iron ore, met and thermal coal all on the up and sterling on the down. Could conditions be any better for Anglo?

[csmwssk12hu] 06/11/2016 00:24

Yes very good update

[spectoacc] 02/11/2016 08:53

Not unexpected after coal's rises, but I like the comment about dividends - rather than saying "we'll soon have spare cash to splurge on something", they've said they're nearer than expected to a return to dividends rising again.

Or taking my foot out of my mouth:

"Full dividend cover now expected for 2016 ahead
of previous guidance, and acceleration in the
timeframe when the Group can consider gradually
increasing its dividend "

[lord gnome] 02/11/2016 08:45

Nice! With a capital 'N'.

[rcturner2] 02/11/2016 08:01

Very good trading update here today.

[christh] 25/10/2016 09:59

Coal price soars, sees mines reopen
October 25, 2016News Sharon Masige

The current surge in coal prices has signalled positivity in the resources sector, leading to announcements of mines reopening both in Australia and overseas.

Last week the coking coal price reached $230/tonne, soaring from the $75 mark a few months prior, according to the Financial Times. Thermal coal also had a hike in price, reaching more than $100/tonne, and ending a five-year bear market where prices dropped to as low as $40.

The price increase follows China’s decision to reduce coal mine production from 330 days a year to 276, decreasing production by 10 per cent compared this year.

This has also sparked a surge in imports, with September coal imports increasing by a third to 24.4m tonnes, compared to last year.

It has also had coal producing nations awaiting an economic boost as they begin reopening halted mines.

Glencore recently announced the reopening of the Collinsville mine in Queensland, creating 200 jobs in the region. This was welcomed by the state premier Annastacia Palaszczuk who said, “This is yet another piece of positive news for the north and ongoing evidence of green shoots appearing in the resources sector.”

The state is also expecting the reopening of at least three other mines, with NSW planning three as well.

“What we are seeing in the coal industry are companies willing to invest because they see the fundamental drivers of global demand for high-quality Queensland coals as remaining strong,” Queensland Resources Council CEO Michael Roche said.

Since 2011, 500 mines have closed in the US, leaving around 30,000 workers out of a job.

Last month, US company ERP Compliant Fuels purchased three mothballed mines in British Columbia, Canada and is recommencing operations. Another US company, Ramaco, is also planning to restart two coking coal mines this year.

Whitehaven has also noted a ramp up of production following the surge in price, having quadrupled production in four years according to chief executive Paul Flynn.

The company’s September quarter results recorded an increase in coal output, attributing it to strong demand and China’s crackdown on production.

Flynn also went on to suggest that if prices stayed at $75 for a sustained period of time, miners may begin to invest in new mines.

However, other groups believe the rally will be short lived, with analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, Tim Buckley, saying the seaborne trade is in structural decline and global coal demand will drop by 2.3% this year.

[ruethewhirl] 25/10/2016 06:27

Met coal rally continues. This should be higher.

[sophiegb] 17/10/2016 14:57

Proactive Investors is here:

[stevie blunder] 13/10/2016 12:19

Peabody agreed to sell coking coal at $200 a metric ton during the fourth quarter to Japanese steelmaker Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal Corp., said people with knowledge of the situation, who asked not to be identified as the information isn’t public. It’s the highest contracted price since 2012 and compares with $92.50 in the third-quarter. The settlement typically sets the benchmark for the region, though it’s unclear if the level reached with Peabody will be used widely since Nippon is still in talks with other miners, said one of the people.