Anglo Pacific Share Discussion Threads

[stevie blunder] 10/10/2016 15:55

There is quite a bit of discussion of Coal contract prices for Q4 2016 on the web. Here is one piece:



According to Macquarie commodities analysts, Nippon Steel is demanding December quarter contract prices of $US160 a tonne.

But miner Anglo American wants $US212, which would be in line with the regular practice of settling at spot prices at the start of the quarter.
..............................

I don't expect such prices to last long term,I think they have risen too far too fast and the Chinese will probably bring more mines back on line, but good while they last!

[quepassa] 07/10/2016 10:52

The astonishing and growing sterling weakness will be a major benefit to the sterling based earnings/valuations/revaluations of APF.

Not yet reflected.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[neilyb675] 28/9/2016 17:17

another strong finish

[retiringtype] 26/9/2016 12:52

The IC podcast interview with Julian Treger is worth a listen

[christh] 26/9/2016 07:12

Coking coal prices to remain high
September 26, 2016News Cole Latimer

Coking coal volatility is off the cards, with prices likely to remain high after recent rallies, Goldman Sachs believe.

China’s recent plans to dramatically slash its coal output by reducing its mining and steel sectors has driven metallurgical coal’s price through the roof, seeing the spot price double to more than US$205 per tonne.

In January it declared it would not approve any new coal mines for the next three years, in a bid to cut growing stockpiles, as well as increase its alternative energy supplies.

The country also plans to reduce national output by around 60 million tons in 2016, and around 500 million tonnes of coal over the next 3 to 5 years, with the Shanxi province slashing around 100 million tonnes of production alone by 2020.

In March China’s government then stated it would lay off close to two million workers in its coal and steel industry to help cut market oversupply.

An official at China’s human resources and social security ministry said the nation’s industries expect to cut around 1.8 million workers as it seeks to reduce capacity, and address the growing stockpiles in the country.

This plan to slash the country’s coal and steel workforce came only days after Chinese coal companies pushed the government to set a price floor for coal to protect against bankruptcy and stem job cuts.

Additionally, the government has taken further steps to reduce output, cutting operating days from 330 to 276 per year.

The country’s decision first began to make an impact in May this year, with early forecasts of a minimum 20% increase in coking coal prices.

China’s continued action has made investment banks and funds even more bullish on coal’s future, with recent Goldman Sachs notes raising the 2017 contract prices forecast by 64% to US$135 per tonne and its 2018 estimates by 47% to US$125 per tonne; this is extremely bullish compared to current third quarter prices of US$92.50, according to Bloomberg.

The note explained the changes come on the back of a different operating environment.

“We see upside risks if current policies remain unchanged going into next year and the resulting shortage overwhelms the ability of producers in Australia and the U.S. to respond,” Goldman Sachs stated.

Macquarie Group also followed suit, raising its fourth quarter predictions by
84%, and 2017 first quarter forecast by 56%.

[bountyhunter] 24/9/2016 15:27

Good post QP.

[illiswilgig] 24/9/2016 09:47

Thanks QP,

keep it up!

cheers

[gavapentin] 24/9/2016 06:38

Great insight as ever, served up with a dash of patronisation ;)
Good luck QP

[quepassa] 23/9/2016 22:13

You will recall that you said your spoon had hit the floor with mouth aghast when I wrote post 721 on 24th. March this year on the bulletin board titled "Coal or a Brighter Future" when the share price was at its very lowest of about 55p.

You attention is drawn particularly to my last sentence of that post since when I have not posted.

However these are my latest and most recent thoughts to stimulate the bulletin board discussion:-



BY NOW, APF should be sitting on some significant and as-yet-unrealised upward re-valuations in their coking coal portfolio royalties since the near vertical price surge in coking coal this year.

And similarly on some other non-coal holdings as well.

Soon the cycle is likely to begin again of big upwards revaluations which will drive up NAV and drive up the share price in tandem.

Whether you love coal or not, the recent multi-year perfect storm for this commodity has now passed.

As a stock, APF are lagging the pack.

Teck Resources of Canada has increased from C$3.5 in June to c$18 - an increase of 500% in anticipation, compared to APF's 100% increase. The other royalty streamers have had huge increases in stock prices.

Dividend cover will also soon be substantially improved which make it a magnet for yield hunters in a yield starved investment world.

Although the long-term outlook for coal remains resolutely in decline, in the short term the demand for coking coal is great given recent events such as the unprecedented restriction on Chinese mines.

This share is likely to play catch-up with the market and with its peer group of royalty companies pretty quickly and likely has a lot further to run upwards.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[ruethewhirl] 23/9/2016 21:41

Ahhh, that's more like it.

Feel there's much more to come.

[bountyhunter] 23/9/2016 20:56

looks like he's jetted off over here...

[gavapentin] 23/9/2016 20:33

Agreed - WHERE IS QP??

It's all gone a bit quiet.

That said, QP called it all the way down

[jazz319] 23/9/2016 18:51

What has happened to QuePassa It needs some de-ramping in APF to even up the advance in the share price since he (or she) seems to have gone quiet. I have held these for many years and collected great dividends to add to my income but he (she) did have me worried about dividend sustainability but I held. It did come close though. Still think there is more to come from GFRD and like companies able to benefit from house building and major projects to stimulate the economy. GFRD just finished a bypass in South Devon ahead of time, in budget and with minimum disruption. First time I have ever "ramped" but I was impressed. Holding. DYOR.

[bountyhunter] 23/9/2016 17:42

about time! :-)

[ruethewhirl] 16/9/2016 08:09

Why isn't this higher already?

Coal prices are going bananas.

[stevie blunder] 09/9/2016 08:50

Couple of snippets :

Wood Mackenzie forecasts a 40% fall in trade in thermal coal if the temperature of the world rises by only 2 degrees Celsius from an estimated 900 million tonnes for 2016 to 527 million tonnes by 2035.



"If we had eggs, we could have ham and eggs. If we had ham." Pardon my scepticism.

But back in the real world:

The price for premium coking coal exported from Australia, the world’s biggest shipper of the commodity, jumped to $158.40 a metric ton Tuesday, according to the Steel Index, a price information provider. That was up 4.1% from Monday and more than double the $78 a ton sellers were getting for their coal at the start of this year. Tuesday’s price was the highest since March 18, 2013, when the commodity traded a little over $159 a ton.

[dgellissnr] 09/9/2016 08:36

(seams)get it coal prices are on the way up 18 month high

[lord gnome] 06/9/2016 17:35

That was another reason to invest, Neilyb675. I like to be in good company ;-))

[neilyb675] 06/9/2016 14:46

You are amongst other wise investors Mr Lord Gnome sir.

[lord gnome] 06/9/2016 12:33

Joined you with a few this morning. Invested mainly for the income, but with a good chance of further share price recovery as well.

[gavapentin] 03/9/2016 17:20

Where is the bear?
Is he now a bull?

[stevie blunder] 03/9/2016 16:31

Investors Chronic cover the latest results, nothing we don't know, except the comment that Peel Hunt reckon the dividend will be covered 1.5 times in 2017, and we should be set for 7-8 years of near 100% Kestrel mining on APF land.

[neilyb675] 30/8/2016 09:14

Very bullish. Buy n hold fellas.