Anglo Pacific Share Discussion Threads

[djgrantb] 23/3/2016 07:28

Bye well, let the market decide, the glass is half, nameste.

[buywell3] 23/3/2016 07:07

Are these good enough ? in a market where the price of COAL is expected to go nowhere till 2020

Except perhaps sideways at best as China woes continue to worsen

Loss after tax of GBP22.6m (2014: GBP47.6m), due largely
to the Kestrel revaluation charge of GBP27.2m (2014: GBP11.8m),
resulting in a loss per share of 14.06p (2014: 42.09p)

-- Cash balance of GBP5.7m at December 31, 2015 (2014: GBP8.8m)
and net debt of GBP1.8m (2014: nil)

[djgrantb] 22/3/2016 18:27

gavapentin, think its probably in anticipation of good results tomoz, investors don't want to get caught out if it rises sharply, I guess we'll see in the morning, results out at 0700 londontime. Stick or twist....

[gavapentin] 22/3/2016 16:41

why the rise?

[quepassa] 18/3/2016 23:08

Woops!
I think you are wrong about coal between 2015 and 2035. Look again.

QP

[sozamyers] 18/3/2016 22:29

I can only see growth in coal usage from the BP graph ongoing through to 2035. Not a clue how some on here can read this in any other way than positive for AP? I think people are forgetting this graph has two axis! One shows consumption growing, the other shows the share of consumption. This would be VERY good news for AP if coal consumption grows in line with BP forecast.

[emeraldzebra] 18/3/2016 16:23

feel we are past the worst now and perhaps the shares will be back in the 70's soon. let's see...

[quepassa] 18/3/2016 13:40

Tough graph to work out.

But looks to me, even using BP, that between 2015 and 2035 , there is no growth in coal use - whilst all the others are increasing. Maybe a slight decrease even by this chart for coal.

What happened in 1965 is totally relevant.

Relevant is only 2015 to 2035 on your graph.

I fear that you are hoisted by your own petard.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[stevie blunder] 18/3/2016 13:06

If you think you know more than BP I take my hat off to you.

"I am now expecting Australian economy to slump 50% over the next 3 years"

What does that even mean? Do you think Australian GDP will halve in 3 years? Really? The biggest non-war driven economic collapse since the Black Death?

Well if you say so......

[buywell3] 18/3/2016 10:34

APF is a play on the COAL price ... pure and simple


Surely all holders here knew this ?

I should have added India is using a bit more COAL also

But the EU and USA have cut back bigtime

China will dictate where COAL now goes

I am now expecting Australian economy to slump 50% over the next 3 years

The overbought Aussie property market will get shafted as will that of New Zealand when Fonterra gets nationalized and the banks in both countries take a beating

Opportunities will abound along with the Kangaroos and Kiwis

[quepassa] 18/3/2016 10:24

The prospects for coal remain very bleak.

Global warming and COP 21 will bring about a slow and festering tailing-off to global coal consumption over time.

If everything is however as positive for coal as the blue-skies brigade think, I have just one question.

As APF is 75% coal, just why then has their share price collapsed from around 380p to 55p?

It is non-sensical to talk about the consumption of coal without talking about the price of coal. Price is a result of the supply-demand equation.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[buywell3] 18/3/2016 09:58

Asia was the only area to show COAL usage growth up to a few years back

Most of the rest of the world had been dropping back re COAL usage

It was China that was driving COAL further


From my last post

Persistent oversupply and shrinking imports in China and elsewhere suggest prices will remain under pressure through 2020.


I should charge you guys for this and note have correctly called this down from circa 200p , which wasn't all that hard to do

The chart is now in crab mode

[rcturner2] 18/3/2016 09:57

SB, worldwide coal consumption dropped last year for the first time since the 90s.

Now that may be a blip, but the long term trend is probably against coal given that it is the most used fuel and the most polluting.

[buywell3] 18/3/2016 09:49

Correct because Japan atomic power stations took a hit re tsunami

Their adoption of some COAL power stations will thus pollute their country further still

World COAL demand however will never again be what it was even 5 years ago mainly due to China



Global coal demand stalls after more than a decade of relentless growth




Annual IEA coal report sees market under intense pressure, reflecting Chinese economic restructuring and global environmental policies

18 December 2015 Singapore

Following more than a decade of aggressive growth, global coal demand has stalled, the International Energy Agency said Friday in its annual coal market report. The report sharply lowered its five-year global coal demand growth forecast in reflection of economic restructuring in China, which represents half of global coal consumption. Greater policy support for renewable energy and energy efficiency – the foundation of the COP21 agreement in Paris – is also expected to dent coal demand.

The IEA’s Medium-Term Coal Market Report 2015 slashed its five-year estimate of global coal demand growth by more than 500 million tonnes of coal equivalent (Mtce) in recognition of the tremendous pressures facing coal markets. The revision comes as official preliminary data indicate that a decline in Chinese coal demand occurred in 2014 and is set to accelerate in 2015. A decline in coal consumption in China for two consecutive years would be the first since 1982.

“The coal industry is facing huge pressures, and the main reason is China – but it is not the only reason,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said as he launched the report in Singapore at an event organised by the Energy Market Authority. “The economic transformation in China and environmental policies worldwide – including the recent climate agreement in Paris – will likely continue to constrain global coal demand.”

Coal demand in China is sputtering as the Chinese economy gradually shifts to one based more on services and less on energy-intensive industries. New Chinese hydro, nuclear, wind and solar are also significantly curtailing coal power generation, driven not only by energy security and climate concerns but also by efforts to reduce local pollution.

Given the strong rebalancing of China’s economy, the report also presents an alternate scenario in which Chinese coal demand has already peaked. In this so-called “peak coal scenario”, infrastructure and energy-intensive industries represent a lower share of Chinese GDP than in the report’s base case, while services and high-tech manufacturing gain momentum. In the peak case, Chinese coal demand in 2020 is 9.8% percent below the level in 2013 and more than 300 Mtce below the base-case forecast of nearly 2950 Mtce in 2020. Meanwhile, global coal demand in the peak case drops to around 5500 Mtce in 2020 – falling 0.1% per year on average, compared with growth of 0.8% per year in the report’s main forecast.

The report sees coal demand outside China modestly increasing through 2020 as the structural decline in Europe and the United States is more than offset by growth in India and Southeast Asia. The Indian government’s push for universal energy access and an expansion of manufacturing will drive electricity growth. In addition to India’s ambitious renewable targets (175 GW of renewables by 2022, of which 100 GW are solar PV), coal will provide a significant share of the additional power requirements – as much as 60% through 2020. Indeed, preliminary data show India overtaking China as the world’s largest coal importer this year.

The region with the highest growth rate in coal use in the outlook period is in Southeast Asia, where Indonesia, Viet Nam, Malaysia and Philippines among others plan to underpin their power generation with new coal power plants. Unfortunately, around half of the new coal-fired generation capacity under development in the region still uses inefficient subcritical technologies.

Slowing economic growth and energy consumption in China as well as the restriction of coal use in its coastal regions will impact seaborne trade, especially Indonesian exports. In the IEA report’s forecast, Australia takes a growing share of seaborne coal trade.

Prices continue to remain at low levels. In December 2015, prices of imported coal in Europe fell below USD 50/tonne – levels not seen in a decade. Persistent oversupply and shrinking imports in China and elsewhere suggest prices will remain under pressure through 2020.

With the recent COP21 agreement in Paris calling for the global increase in temperatures to be limited to “well below” 2 degrees Celsius, the IEA reiterated that carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology will be essential for enabling future use of coal without large CO2 emissions. “Governments and industry must increase their focus on this technology if they are serious about long-term climate goals,” said Fatih Birol. “CCS is not just a coal technology. It is not a technology just for power generation. It is an emissions reduction technology that will need to be widely deployed to achieve our low-carbon future.”

[rcturner2] 18/3/2016 07:39

I find it hilarious that the holders don't seem to have noticed that the doom and gloom brigade called this one correctly.

[djgrantb] 17/3/2016 15:51

I find it hilarious that the doom and gloom brigade suddenly re-appear just before the release of the latest results, go climb back into your holes..

[buywell3] 17/3/2016 15:37

Thanks for that QuePassa

Too much COAL I am sorry to say guys

The future looks very bleak for APF as the future of COAL itself is now under a death sentence

Cheap OIL, with Iran coming on tap plus USA shale OIL around for many years to come , an over supply of Natural Gas , plus legislation against COAL use in power stations leaves COAL use limited to those that still don't mind polluting their air supplies.

Till a cheap clean COAL fired power station is designed and built ... the COAL market is dead in the water

Steel is the only remaining hope

But with Iron ore prices still dropping through the floor ... that hope is slim


APF will do well to survive the next 3 very hard years and I predict they will hit 30p within 12 months

I price I bought them at many years back in another life

[quepassa] 17/3/2016 13:56

Silver Wheaton.

Franco Nevada Corporation.

Two royalty streaming companies.

Compare and weep.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[christh] 17/3/2016 13:29

More coal is being dug out and continues to be dug out for the next century
as more licences have been approved.

It's all in here




There will be coal burning till the end of time.

[quepassa] 17/3/2016 13:12

By VALUE c. 75%.



Coking 54.2%, Thermal 20.6%


And 80.4% of their geographic exposure is to Australia.


(By earnings....we'll learn on 23rd hopefully)






ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[buywell2] 17/3/2016 06:15

What proportion of APF earnings are COAL related ?

[christh] 03/3/2016 11:08

Rio Tinto Increases Iron Ore, Coal Reserves in Australia
03/03/2016 9:17am.

By Alex MacDonald


LONDON--Mining giant Rio Tinto PLC (RIO) said Thursday it has increased it iron ore reserves in Western Australia and increased its coal reserves and resources in the Australian states of New South Wales and Queensland.

The company said its iron ore reserves in Australia increased by 309 million metric tons in 2015 from a year earlier. This includes reserves depleted during the year. Its coal reserves increased to 2.5 billion tons from 2.1 billion tons during the same period.

Total coal resources, excluding coal reserves increased to 6.81 billion tons as of December end from 5.42 billion tons a year earlier.