Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[e43] 24/6/2022 13:34

SA coal producer BISI going well a rare share in current market's hitting yearly and multi year high's today

[lloydypool] 24/6/2022 13:23

I doubt it is news that could be described as good, but there are levels of bad from total wipeout to getting a small premium on current share price. I guess time will tell!

[katsy] 24/6/2022 13:16

rarely have a seen a suspension on a decimated share price end well.

[odsjp] 24/6/2022 13:13

I had written off my 4D shares. A cheap take-over is better then going bust...

[lloydypool] 24/6/2022 12:34

4d shares suspended ... cheap takeover coming?

[odsjp] 24/6/2022 12:21

Thanks JB.

Forgot that they will need to build a new mine at Sotk as it was mainly on the Armenian side. Talk about blatant stealing of assets. No wonder the Az government want some compensation for the mined areas.

Like you say, it is all ready to go at Demirli. I think the risk is negligible unless things get nasty (not with the AZ government but with the separists/Russia and some compromise needs to be found.)

Maybe when it is in production, we can arrange another 'trip' for shareholders as the region looks beautiful and would love to see Shusha as well as obviously the mines!

[bwana4] 24/6/2022 12:07

Wan do not frett. AAZ will break the £1 when you least expect it !! All my buys are in profit now. So I am a happy bunny. Just give AAZ time. There is a lot yet to come but requires time.
I will free up some funds and pour them into AAZ. I think when the Co starts buying it's shares you will see the difference.

Oh' on another note the gap in EML got closed. I bought a few today.
I hope DP sold them before the share price started to fall. In fairness you did warn him.
ATB.

[jbravo2] 24/6/2022 12:07

It is far MORE shovel ready than Sotk ods.
It will be a beauty and the company’s best asset iMO.
If all the workforce/separatists leave the occupied territory a workforce could even commute from Az. That isn’t possible at Sotk til tunnels etc are done. Sotk won’t ever be able to use the existing plant, it’s too far inside Armenia.
So yes if you worry the govt is likely to turn into one which goes back on it’s word then discount this mine. However it hasn’t ever done so and I don’t think it would do so with a mine. It would doing that with oil, worth many times more.

[odsjp] 24/6/2022 12:00

Thanks JB clear.

The only risk I see is that in the future the government of Az 'encourage' AAZ to give up Kyzlbulag/Demirli for something else (similar to Sotk) due to political reasons such as wanting to allow a Turkish (or Russian) company to mine to help keep the peace in the area.

As it is 'shovel' ready, it is the ideal asset (like Sotk) and not something we want to lose. Hopefully that will not happen and AAZ (shareholders) will benefit.

Thanks for the timeline, so at latest it will be 2026 before it being mined again, all things being equal.

[zangdook] 24/6/2022 11:49

Why the concern about Russian peacekeepers, and why look to Turks to control them - their role is to stop fighting breaking out again. Have there been any reports of unprofessional behaviour? I haven't heard any. I would have thought better to have Russians than Turks as peacekeepers given that Turkey has a long history of favouring one side in the conflict.

[jbravo2] 24/6/2022 11:45

The questions asked around Kyzlbulag/Demirli (and the mix up with Vejnaly), the answers given and the answers that have been reported are a mix of some inaccurate information (on both sides), some conjecture, and some fact.

Lets try and straighten a few out

Vejnaly
It is operational from a geology point of view. There is no mining happening yet. The staff present are geologists. We were told to expect mining to commence shortly although I think it will be quite small scale to begin with. Ore will be trucked to Gedabek to start. A decision will have to be made about the plant refurbishment once more is known about how much gold is there etc.
There have never been peacekeepers here. It does not need ratification.

Kyzlbulag/Demirli
It is NOT part of Armenia and never has been. It is part of Azerbaijan as recognised by EVERY country in the world. However, the area is occupied by separatists who would try to shoot anyone identifying themselves as from Azerbaijan. It is not possible to go the plant/mine/area even under armed guard. In the mix are Russian peacekeepers. They arrived at the end of the war in November 2020. The agreement allows for them to remain for FIVE years. (Yes, Reza did say 3 by mistake)
Yes the agreement allowed for a few extra Turkish observers/peacekeepers at their HQ but the boots on the ground are Russian.
Clearly negotiations are ongoing with Armenia (who side with the separatists) about a long term peace deal which will inevitably bring about the separatists arrest/defeat in further war without Armenian help/surrender/acceptance of Az rule/migration to Armenia)
The agreement stipulates Az can demand the peacekeepers leave after 5 years unilaterally. This will only be an issue if a peace deal isn’t signed by Nov 2025. Az and Turkey will want that withdrawal to happen if there is no deal. Armenia and the separatists will beg the Russians to stay. The question is what will Putin do? And then what will Pres Aliyev/Erdogan do if they don’t withdraw?
Putin’s hand is significantly swayed to Az recently by things like the recent alliance agreement but it is far from certain. Be under no illusions he forced Az to agree the ceasefire just as they were about to completely destroy the Armenian/separatist’s army. He wants to try to keep both sides on his side and that is far from easy.

However… far more likely is that a peace deal is done IMO. Nearly all the aces are all held by Az/Tur and that will eventually lead to AAZ getting hold of Kyzlbulag/Demirli. This is a mine of a size that meant it was the fourth largest taxpayer towards “Armenian̶1; budgets from memory. It will transform the company overnight due to the existing infrastructure.
It is, however, nothing that the company can help with/be involved with. We are in govt hands.

[pogue] 24/6/2022 11:40

PoF
that was what we were told at the last presentation when Bill was over a couple off months ago. Long way to go to end of 2022 though.

[pantsonfire] 24/6/2022 11:20

Let me add a few words of my own from the AAZ AGM. My impression talking around to the directors, was that whilst there was an anticipated drop off in production to this year, they were expecting it to bottom out in 2022, and it would soon be ramping back up, in stepwise manner, and reaching a peak in 2024/25. They were very very positive about this.

[pantsonfire] 24/6/2022 11:19

Let me add a few words of my own from the AGM. My impression talking around to the directors, was that whilst there was an anticipated drop off in production to this year, they were expecting it to bottom out in 2022, and it would soon be ramping back up, in stepwise manner, and reaching a peak in 2024/25. They were very very positive about this.

[pantsonfire] 24/6/2022 11:15

Odsjp you asked the following (your post 45444):
Start:
Pants - One quick question if I may. You mention in the Vejnaly bullet point that Russian peacekeeping troops and Turkish military were present but was anything mentioned about Demirli (in terms of troops) and when we could get access and start mining. End

Reading my notes , they rather ran into each other at this point, but the message was clear. Vejnaly is definitely already under operation, with production hoped for in late 2022. For the other 2, I noted visits need the permissions of Russian peacekeepers, but whom are not interfering. In any case, they will be gone in 2 years or so, and presently are being contained (balanced) by the Turkish peacekeepers, who are active and interested, and the words I noted “the Turks will make sure the Russians do not outstay their stay”. Plus I noted “we are working diligently to protect our assets”. This part was proceeded with the question “how is AAZ dealing with the areas in former Armenia”, with the response “carefullyR21;.
I hope this helps.

[pantsonfire] 24/6/2022 11:13

Odsjp you asked the following (your post 52993):
Start:
Pants - One quick question if I may. You mention in the Vejnaly bullet point that Russian peacekeeping troops and Turkish military were present but was anything mentioned about Demirli (in terms of troops) and when we could get access and start mining. It maybe a bit premature considering we don't officially have ownership yet but that really seems to be the jewel in the crown in order to get us to be a mid tier producer. I am currently not expecting anything until mid 2024, would that be yours and anyone elses view?
End
Reading my notes , they rather ran into each other at this point, but the message was clear. Vejnaly is definitely already under operation, with production hoped for in late 2022. For the other 2, I noted visits need the permissions of Russian peacekeepers, but whom are not interfering. In any case, they will be gone in 2 years or so, and presently are being contained (balanced) by the Turkish peacekeepers, who are active and interested, and the words I noted “the Turks will make sure the Russians do not outstay their stay”. Plus I noted “we are working diligently to protect our assets”. This part was proceeded with the question “how is AAZ dealing with the areas in former Armenia”, with the response “carefullyR21;.
I hope this helps.

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 24/6/2022 11:05

Love the idea of buybacks here. Saw real benefits from even a modest program over at GDP.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 24/6/2022 11:01

#3Sporrons, I figured as much, hope you find it as interesting as I did.. :o)

On the buyback, is there a start date..? I've not been able to find anything in the circular, or is it immediately effective post yesterdays vote to begin when the company feels appropriate..? aka any weakening in the share price .

[odsjp] 24/6/2022 10:55

Thanks 2Sp and Jb, should have mentioned Zafar in my expectations (rather than Gedabek).

I am also excited by the share buyback. As dp mentioned the reason here is different to a lot of other companies and it stands to make a considerable profit the longer it keeps them in treasury.

The moment Kyzlbulag/Demirli starts operating (or Garadagh/Xarxar) will be the game changer hopefully to propel the share price significantly forward. Who knows, we might have to endure a share split.

What to do until 2024/2025?

[2sporrans] 24/6/2022 10:35

LLB

I hadn't realised you'd gifted me that ELIX article; i rarely look into my PMs.

Thanks!
I'll be perusing it soon.
Best not say "shortly" :0)

[wanobi] 24/6/2022 10:18

come on, bounce!! LOL :-) Cheers Wan :-)


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[wanobi] 24/6/2022 10:09

FWIW,,,, for me it's above 100p sustained to break this downtrend!! Cheers Wan :-)


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[wanobi] 24/6/2022 10:05

nice one zd, thanx, cheers Wan :-)

[donald pond] 24/6/2022 10:04

L2 at the moment is 1v1, with PEEL at 90-97, MREX at 92-99 and everyone else at 90-100.

[katsy] 24/6/2022 10:01

Chart wise, where is the brake of the down trend point? We need to break the trend!!