Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[wanobi] 15/12/2018 16:21

thanx mattjos, it's all common sense when you sit down and think about it, cheers Wan

150p would be a excellent next move up :-)

Cheers Wan

[mattjos] 15/12/2018 16:17

you get to a point where there are simply no more sellers for the buyers to passively absorb but there are still buyers about in addition to the passive buying.
The MM efforts to liberate more shares simply stops working as they exhuast the sellers at this price level and any fresh attempts to drop the price is hit with buying from the other market participants who also know a 'proper' price should be.
Based on value of forward dividends alone, the current price is still not fairly valued. To shake out more stock from the sellers, the MM's will now let the price rise in order to collect up the next batch of sellers for the background buyers.
This will likely continue until we reach the 150 level, imo

[wanobi] 15/12/2018 16:16

AAZ - interesting;

Bargain or Bust?
What’s Happening With These Stocks?
Anglo Asian Mining PLC (AIM:AAZ)
Posted by Mike Billings on December 15, 2018 at 8:34 am

Watching some historical volatility numbers on shares of Anglo Asian Mining PLC (AIM:AAZ), we can see that the 12 month volatility is presently 52.452800. The 6 month volatility is 54.718500, and the 3 month is spotted at 59.822400. Following volatility data can help measure how much the stock price has fluctuated over the specified time period. Although past volatility action may help project future stock volatility, it may also be vastly different when taking into account other factors that may be driving price action during the measured time period.

Investors often have to face the issue of risk when dealing with the stock market. Creating portfolios that have the largest probability of attaining personal goals might be the course of action for many investors. Realizing that risk is a large part of the investment process can help the investor think realistically. Although completely eliminating risk is not reasonable, taking steps to reduce risk with proper portfolio management is well within reach for any investor. When first starting out, investors may be tempted to follow strategies from friends or colleagues that have dabbled in the markets with some success. Although using someone else’s strategy could work, chances are that eventually each investor will need to tweak the process in order to maximize their chances for success. Often times these lessons may end up being learned the hard way. With proper planning and execution, the hope is that the investor will arm themselves with enough knowledge to avoid mistakes early on.

At the time of writing, Anglo Asian Mining PLC (AIM:AAZ) has a Piotroski F-Score of 8. The F-Score may help discover companies with strengthening balance sheets. The score may also be used to spot the weak performers. Joseph Piotroski developed the F-Score which employs nine different variables based on the company financial statement. A single point is assigned to each test that a stock passes. Typically, a stock scoring an 8 or 9 would be seen as strong. On the other end, a stock with a score from 0-2 would be viewed as weak.

Investors may be interested in viewing the Gross Margin score on shares of Anglo Asian Mining PLC (AIM:AAZ). The name currently has a score of 57.00000. This score is derived from the Gross Margin (Marx) stability and growth over the previous eight years. The Gross Margin score lands on a scale from 1 to 100 where a score of 1 would be considered positive, and a score of 100 would be seen as negative. The Q.i. Value of Anglo Asian Mining PLC is 4.00000. The Q.i. Value is a helpful tool in determining if a company is undervalued or not. The Q.i. Value is calculated using the following ratios: EBITDA Yield, Earnings Yield, FCF Yield, and Liquidity. The lower the Q.i. value, the more undervalued the company is thought to be.

The MF Rank (aka the Magic Formula) is a formula that pinpoints a valuable company trading at a good price. The formula is calculated by looking at companies that have a high earnings yield as well as a high return on invested capital. The MF Rank of Anglo Asian Mining PLC (AIM:AAZ) is 3041. A company with a low rank is considered a good company to invest in. The Magic Formula was introduced in a book written by Joel Greenblatt, entitled, “The Little Book that Beats the Market”. The ERP5 Rank is an investment tool that analysts use to discover undervalued companies. The ERP5 looks at the Price to Book ratio, Earnings Yield, ROIC and 5 year average ROIC. The ERP5 of Anglo Asian Mining PLC (AIM:AAZ) is 5979. The lower the ERP5 rank, the more undervalued a company is thought to be.

Some of the best financial predictions are formed by using a variety of financial tools. The Price Range 52 Weeks is one of the tools that investors use to determine the lowest and highest price at which a stock has traded in the previous 52 weeks. The Price Range of Anglo Asian Mining PLC (AIM:AAZ) over the past 52 weeks is 0.942000. The 52-week range can be found in the stock’s quote summary.

We can now take a quick look at some historical stock price index data. Anglo Asian Mining PLC (AIM:AAZ) presently has a 10 month price index of 2.15843. The price index is calculated by dividing the current share price by the share price ten months ago. A ratio over one indicates an increase in share price over the period. A ratio lower than one shows that the price has decreased over that time period. Looking at some alternate time periods, the 12 month price index is 3.10161, the 24 month is 4.01187, and the 36 month is 21.96976. Narrowing in a bit closer, the 5 month price index is 2.05051, the 3 month is 1.84546, and the 1 month is currently 1.21622.

Free Cash Flow Growth (FCF Growth) is the free cash flow of the current year minus the free cash flow from the previous year, divided by last year’s free cash flow. The FCF Growth of Anglo Asian Mining PLC (AIM:AAZ) is 1.310431. Free cash flow (FCF) is the cash produced by the company minus capital expenditure. This cash is what a company uses to meet its financial obligations, such as making payments on debt or to pay out dividends. The Free Cash Flow Score (FCF Score) is a helpful tool in calculating the free cash flow growth with free cash flow stability – this gives investors the overall quality of the free cash flow. The FCF Score of Anglo Asian Mining PLC is 1.538953. Experts say the higher the value, the better, as it means that the free cash flow is high, or the variability of free cash flow is low or both.

As the markets continue to charge to new heights, investors may be trying to calculate where the markets will be moving in the next few months. Many market enthusiasts will be monitoring the current round of company earnings reports. A better than expected earnings period may help give the stock market another boost to even greater levels. At this point in time, investors may be a bit more cautious with stock selection. With so many names near all-time highs, investors may need to crunch the numbers to evaluate which stocks are still a good buy even at current price levels. Investors may also want to zoom out to the sector level and see if they can determine which sectors may be poised to outperform the overall market coming in to the second part of the year. Investors may also be looking at the overall economic conditions and striving to gain a sense of whether everything will align to keeping the bull run going.

Cheers
Wan

[wanobi] 15/12/2018 16:05

aha, many thanx, I now see what you saying in your post, much appreciated, cheers Wan

[wanobi] 15/12/2018 15:54

please can you show me what you mean by "suggest you re-draw your volume trend lines according to price movements.", if you have the time, many thanx, cheers Wan

[wanobi] 15/12/2018 15:51

I've not sold a single AAZ share, not tried to trade it, just accumulate as best I can,, although I'm still getting that wrong in many cases :-) that said, anything under 100p in the long run is probably very cheap provided POG keeps steady or rises from here,,, mind you our all in production cost is so low we'll be the last gold miner standing should gold fall :-)

Cheers
Wan

[wanobi] 15/12/2018 15:46

certainly hope you are correct mattjos, maybe they're sitting at just below the threshold 3% for now!!! cheers Wan

[mattjos] 15/12/2018 15:44

suggest you re-draw your volume trend lines according to price movements.

Price marches up … volume spikes. Then volume drifts down and down as the buyers passively absorb the daily selling. Eventually there no more sellers at the price, volume nears zero & price decline bottoms out … then fresh wave of aggressive buying kicks in and the price takes the next step up … this will continue as each wave of selling is absorbed in the background.
Personally I am still buying

[wanobi] 15/12/2018 15:43

AAZ - from their website - the total issued share capital 114,392,024 ordinary shares.

so 3% = 3,431,761 shares to own before declaration of share holdings right?

so I suppose there could be some II buying back in Sept/Oct & steady accumulation in smaller tranches since, maybe.....

cheers Wan

at 90p, that's £3m+ worth but only £1.5m+ at 45p (Sept time)....

who knows, cheers Wan :-)

[mattjos] 15/12/2018 15:41

wanobi … yes, there is at least one fund buying into AAZ. There was one earlier in the year who bought after presentation, before divi announcement.
Trades show the buyer(s) are simply picking up all the loose shares that are sold during the day. Their buys are expressed after the bell / delayed - sometimes even days later. This is allowed if they are deemed as being part of a larger worked order over a period of time.
impatient smaller investors / traders are simply providing the shares the buyer(s) want.
Valuation is easier now for a fund … simple mathematical calc based on the divi. Under a £1, it's a 5%+ yield .. they'll buy that all day long from the impatient sellers & will pay higher in order to achieve their target holding at an average price. I would suggest sellers here just do not understand what they are selling.

[wanobi] 15/12/2018 15:32

More importantly, do you really think we have II's buying AAZ yet?

There doesn't seem to be enough volume to my mind!?


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com


Thanx

Cheers
Wan

[wanobi] 15/12/2018 15:28

Mr Jos, welcome back, who do you think a lot of in the analyst world?

:-)

cheers Wan

[mattjos] 15/12/2018 15:19

teenager could have written that! Don't think much of Nomura analyst

[wanobi] 15/12/2018 13:22

Just for you Bumpa;

While black swans are impossible to predict, Nomura analysts have put nine "grey swans" for 2019 on their radar.

The firm says so-called grey swans, close cousins of black swans, are foreseeable risk events that end up having a much more drastic impact than expected. A few of those in 2018 were the emerging markets currencies retreat, the volatility spike in February and the global equity sell-off.

"None of these are our base case, and instead are more an exercise in forcing us to think outside our usual base scenario-risk modes of thinking," said the team of currency, fixed income and economic analysts at the firm.

Oil price plunges to $20 per barrel
There's a low probability that another oil slump may be on the road, due to excessive supply, shifting consumer preferences and environmental considerations, Nomura noted. However it's "plausible" that oil prices drop as low as $20 per barrel in 2019, Nomura said.

Oil prices have a recent history of moving from boom to bust and in ways that oil analysts have not expected, Nomura analysts pointed out in the note. They fell to a 13-year low of around $26 per barrel in January 2016 from $60 per barrel in June 2015 and $100 per barrel in June 2014.
Asia is in 'reasonably good shape' for 2019: Nomura
Asia is in 'reasonably good shape' for 2019: Nomura
3:44 AM ET Tue, 11 Dec 2018 | 03:18

Brent Crude closed around $60 a barrel on Tuesday.

"Currently, there is arguably a big glut in the oil market, partly thanks to rising oil production in the U.S. Less production restraint from Iran of late, combined with lingering tensions between OPEC and Russia supply responses could leave that oil glut larger for longer in the period ahead," they said.
One big market volatility event

The mini market quakes in 2018 — the emerging markets currencies collapse, trade wars, Brexit and U.S. stock correction — could be precursors for a big one in 2019, Nomura said.

There are three possible market quakes, according to Nomura: a collapse in stock price, a contagious sovereign crisis in Europe and Chinese defaults. They cited U.S. stock valuations, Italian sovereign risk and China's mountain of private debt as the catalysts.

"In such an environment, cash would likely be king, risk markets would underperform and safe-haven currencies such as the yen would do well," the analysts wrote in the note.

"It's easy to paint a picture of a market crisis in 2019, market liquidity conditions worsening with lingering effects of Fed hikes and continued balance reduction, the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan scaling back their quantitative easing measures and China continuing its deleveraging policies," they added.
End of populism

Populism may have reached its peak in 2018, Nomura noted.

This political approach, made prominent by Chinese President Xi Jinping's corruption crackdown and the centralization of power, has been adopted around the world — by U.S. President Donald Trump, Brexit forces, President Erdogan of Turkey, and President Putin of Russia, Nomura said. But the world might start to realize populists fail to deliver growth, they noted.

"Already we are seeing signs of this. The Republicans have lost control of the House in the US midterms, and stock market weakness appears to have influenced President Trump's trade policy to become more conciliatory," Nomura said.

Other grey swan calls on the Nomura list include an Italian recovery, hyperinflation in the U.S. and a comeback in the Chinese Yuan.

Cheers
Wan

[macmuck] 15/12/2018 12:40

MF reported yesterday that he got matched @ 88.77. My limit order at 89.5 did not get matched thro IWEB. Is there a reason this might not have been matched or do I need to ask them that? Cheers

[goodgrief] 15/12/2018 11:39

"Incredibly, still not one Holdings RNS has been issued since Bashirov declared himself out, three years ago. Share prices do not go up 16 fold over three years without there being significant buying."

Mattjos, I'm surprised you haven't declared yet!! :)

[riggerbeautz] 15/12/2018 11:36

MKA? more like meh on stockhouse clearly the punters are all over it! (Rolleyes emoji needed).

Don’t forget if you trade across the pond, it’s end of year tax season, things sell off or go mute.

[mattjos] 15/12/2018 10:49

blimey, it's only 4 weeks now until Q4 Production Update.

2019 will be the first full year with the newly configured/upgraded production processes + several of Steve's incremental improvements will be feeding in to the overall site productivity.

On the macro front, it seems too early to determine if current weakness in the global markets is a merely a correction after the first ¾ of 2018 got completely carried away off the back of the USA tax cuts or, if this will morph into something altogether more scary as 2019 unfolds.

In either case, AAZ looks well set as 2019 should easily be a record year & our cash pile will keep growing .. giving us the firepower to pursue whatever opportunities the exploration efforts throw up.
Opportunities are coming across Reza's desk but, I suspect there will also be larger entities eyeing up AAZ.

Incredibly, still not one Holdings RNS has been issued since Bashirov declared himself out, three years ago. Share prices do not go up 16 fold over three years without there being significant buying. It cannot be PI's regularly scooping these up now in 50k and 100k chunks .. it may well be some PI's selling down after a good run but, it's institutional investors who are now accumulating all the loose each week. We must surely get a Holdings statement soon and give us a clue as which II sees the value here.

[wanobi] 15/12/2018 09:45

AAZ - testing upward trend and horizontal support line next week!!


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com


Cheers
Wan

[brasso3] 15/12/2018 06:49

50k of buys went through after 16:30 yesterday.

The big boys are still accumulating.

[bleepy] 15/12/2018 01:01

Not forgetting Gadir has multi developement tunnels at various levels with tunnels off shooting those. So a lot of scope for decent jorc. The drill hole that proved up a 93gpt Au core sample has also been intersected by tunnelling.
Plus the 600mtr tunnelling from Gadir to below pit4 of Gedabek has shown significant grades. Not sure if this tunnel is the down dip referred to or has some other name. So would assume further exploration would take place along the length of this tunnel also. Mention also of 4 adjacent areas to Gadir that show promise, possibly Gadir 2,3,4 and 5 with subsequent jorcs to prove up.
We know that further developent tunnels are being driven below pit4 to accommodate the fan drilling exploration. This Gedabek underground mine I’m guessing is going to be a bonanza when considering the present underground exploration has been guided by much earlier deep drilling from the surface. Gedabek open pit complex comprises 6pits to date, now that would be nice if the underground ore body followed the same as surface.
And there’s been mention of the back wall of this complex contains many years of mining.
That’s all adjacent to the processing plant, makes one think they had more than a fair idea that such a huge and rich prospective area was just waiting to be mined.

We are 1yr into a 3yr $6ml aggressive exploration programme that is looking at the whole of the 300sq km acreage plus a heliborne survey to more accurately guide the exploration.
The exploration programme also applies to Ordubad of which much is expected.

Just reading the scheduled news items in the header above for coming weeks and months confirms where we have come from to date and where we are heading. Aaz catching headline news as best in its class confirms the achievements to date. Our broker has been slow to acknowledge as has Mr Market. We should realistically be at £1.50 now and heading for £2-£2.50 as further positive news breaks.

The present share price sideshow provides a great opportunity to top up or just sit on your hands until value outs. If gold as predicted for 2019 hits $1350-$1400 then we can expect share price to go further north.

[s0lis] 14/12/2018 23:35

cannonfodd3r

We know that drilling from inside the mine is restricted to only a few decameters so can only give us an indication of what is very close by. However, they could have drilled from the surface to deeper levels and we could have an interesting JORC.

But, what I am hoping for is preliminary additional comment as to what may be there from looking at the Airborne Geophysical Survey at deeper depths. Now that could be interesting.

[wanobi] 14/12/2018 23:06

lol, 0.05,,, amazing, cheers Bumpa, Wan