Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[mattjos] 03/1/2018 15:19

blimey! Wakey, wakey people! Gold still holding well over $1,300. A lovely New Year bonus for us

[terropol] 03/1/2018 10:02

2SPORRANS, with last quarter being best production period, we should have had a great benefit from the high gold price.
And this time Gold looks to be firming over $1300.
Looking forward to the quarter update.
Our Copper in the ground also gone up a lot in value.
Welcome 2018.

[mattjos] 03/1/2018 08:16

With yesterdays close of 33p, that confirms an 'Adam & Eve' Double Bottom chart pattern

[2sporrans] 03/1/2018 00:15

Agreed Gutterhead.
If resource and production updates at least meet av. expectations, AAZ ought to hit a higher price than the 37p peak last October.
POG 200ma is >$1270/oz now; gone up for the past 4 months and rate of rise being maintained. Copper good too.
Debt must be sub $20-mn now and Q4 significantly profitable; 2018 forecasts much more so.
So, why not 40p+ some time this month?

Think a fully fledged resource [exploration/development] update is paramount.
It must not disappoint.

[gutterhead] 02/1/2018 21:33

we could have a near perfect storm on our hands
pretty difficult to find something negative apart from the market being slow to react
mid to late 30's prior to a positive update would be ideal
good luck all

[edjge2] 02/1/2018 19:43

mattjos yes inverse H&S and possible breakout. 35p not impossible

[mattjos] 02/1/2018 16:38

10 week closing high today .. might not seem like much but, it is painting a nice rounding bottom reversal / inverse H&S reversal pattern.

[mattjos] 02/1/2018 13:56

looking like a very powerful upswing in gold underway

[davidspringbank] 02/1/2018 11:41

Great start to the New Year - gold at $1310.

[mattjos] 02/1/2018 11:30

we got to that 34.5p region, fleetingly, during November 2016 before dropping back to 15p
Then we got to it again during October 2017 & stayed there for a little bit longer before only dropping back to the 28p level.
I would expect to see it move back towards that 34.5p level once again now and be hovering there/thereabouts for the Production update.

The chart pattern is very similar to what was printed August 2010 when waiting for the Gedabek resource update news. Back then it was the 20p level that was the resistance level and once broken we moved ahead over the following 4 months to 80p.
This time we're coming from the 35p level so, I believe we will see greater than 80p this year & once that 80p high is taken out, I would expect to see it act as support from then onwards.
Not long now to add more

[jbravo2] 02/1/2018 10:58

So here we are, the year LTH's have been waiting for.
We become debt free this year.

The main loan finishes in August, if it's not all restructured before then. Frankly baffled it didn't happen at the end of November but I'm sure we'll find out what the intention is in under 2 weeks as matt alludes to.

Meanwhile, the cheap gold comes out of the ground at a fantastic rate. With Gold over 1300. Lovely.

The copper stockpiles and Gadir ore continue to benefit from high copper prices, currently over $3.25.

These prices are well north of what we need to have another amazing year.

Amazing this isn't over 50p but perhaps its the new year sales.


Happy New Year all.

Edit:
(lol... i see it dropped the penny again as I was writing. I'll shut up again...)
Double edit
It was the auction. Sigh. I'm not quite up to speed.

[jeanesy] 02/1/2018 10:38

Moving on up !!

[terropol] 02/1/2018 10:33

we may crack the 34p resistance today...
With gold pushing on, we have the Manchester city of the small miners here.
Happy 2018 all.

[mattjos] 02/1/2018 09:36

just ten trading sessions until the Q4 Production & Operations update

[jbe81] 02/1/2018 09:21

By next week everybody should be back at work , if gokd continues to rise would expect Aaz to be close to 40 p by the end of next week.

[jeanesy] 02/1/2018 08:50

Yes great start for pog .copper price also doing well. All good for us. I think we will have to wait until we hear news on production before people take notice. Lets hope all has been going as planned. There should be no excuses about weather etc..!

[jbe81] 02/1/2018 06:45

Strong start to the year for gold as expected. Would expect Aaz to go up as people get back to work and are able to catch up.

[jaspoland] 30/12/2017 17:57

Mattjos, Let the next RNS spell it out to the market. It's frustrating waiting for it to show true value but I feel 2018 will finally reward all long termers.

Thanks for keeping us updated with your thoughts throughout

[mattjos] 30/12/2017 16:27

much closer than the current valuation GH! Might be a smidge optimistic but, half-way between 80p & 180p is where I value the equity just now.

Drilling into the figures a little further we see this in terms of average daily production since 1/1/13 (that is annual production / 365)

FY 2013
Au: 143oz/day
Ag: 123oz/day
Cu: 0.9t/day

FY 2014
Au: 165oz/day
Ag: 85oz/day
Cu: 2.1t/day

FY 2015
Au: 197oz/day
Ag: 78oz/day
Cu: 2.7t/day

Flotation plant came online during Q4 '15
-----------------------------------------

FY 2016
Au: 180oz/day
Ag: 479oz/day
Cu: 5.6t/day

[gutterhead] 30/12/2017 15:49

Matt

thanks for the logical predictions

these numbers should illustrate (scream) that, even on a conservative per earnings multiple, how underpriced AAZ is

my very rough estimate is that 2018 PBIT forecast, with 5 times earnings could value the company at £200m which would equate to a share price circa 180p (which doesn't include asset value)

do you think I am close?

GH

[mattjos] 30/12/2017 15:32

Since Q1 2013, quarterly production has averaged as follows:

Gold:.....15,152oz
Silver:...21,316oz
Copper:.... 316t

Q4 this year has been sensibly focussed on the gold & silver rich Ugur ore being run through the Agitation plant and the Flotation plant solely processing the previously stacked sulphide ore at circa 300-400t ore per day.

It's another 'first-time' configuration for the processing plant at Gedabek and so actually pretty tricky to try and predict the Q4 figures.

Other than Gold at circa 90 days * 200-220oz / day = 18,000-19,800oz, I really am struggling to work out how this will influence the Copper & Silver production.

Anything more than 160t of Copper in Q4 will see Annual Cu production reach another new high.
The Flotation plant came on stream in Q4 2015 and over FY 2016 added ave. 200t per quarter so, I think we should expect approx. 225t of Copper in Q4.

Am expecting Silver production to fall away this quarter as it has been a combined Ag/Fl plant config. that boosted it dramatically over 2016 & first 3 Q's of 2017.


Anyway, record annual Copper production for the FY & the possibility of a new record Q for Gold production (previous best was 19,665 in Q2 '16) look achievable & that production being sold into a very bullish Q for Copper prices and a gold price that has comfortable exceeded the company's $1,200 assumptions.

Direct production costs for the quarter should also be very low ... the sulphide ore extraction & stacking costs have already been expensed over 2016 & early 2017 and the oxide ore from Ugur is a relatively simple operation at this stage of its development.
Processing plant power is all from the grid now.

Should be a dramatically strong cashflow quarter !

[mattjos] 29/12/2017 18:58

well done jeanesy.

Probably like others, am rather surprised we are still here but, the longer we dither about in consolidation at around 30p, the greater and stronger the upward move will prove to be once the FY figures come out & reiterate the nonsense valuation that only just a few of us know to be the case.

Gold finishing up the year at $1,300 has rather slayed the gold bears with their insistence that US$ rate rises would see it collapse, despite historical facts proving gold tends to rise during such periods.

One of the key attractions here, for me, is the three-pronged nature of AAZ's production and how that mix provides upside, no mater how the world goes from here.

There is absolutely no denying the global momentum in the shift away from IC engines to electric propulsion (be it ultimately powered by either battery or Hydrogen) & short of discovering a new element, Copper is the metal used in electric motor windings.

Silver which will benefit from either global growth or global collapse with its industrial use and its 'poor man's gold' appeal. I believe we are still only in the foothills for the global solar infrastructure build and silver features in solar panels & is not replaceable in that role either.

I personally am still in the camp that believes we have not properly paid the price for the last financial crisis and that central bank intervention has merely deferred the inevitable creative-destruction phase which must one day occur. Until then, China & Russia will continue to build their gold reserves in unison & look at more and more ways to bypass the dominance of the US$. The rise of the electric vehicle will also gradually diminish the role that oil plays in global finance & that is another footing that will be knocked from under the US$.
Add in the debt floating around in the world (counted as an asset by most financial institutions) & the debt binge that lies ahead of the USA.
I guess it all depends on where you draw the finishing line on these things but, the whole setup just gives me the willies.
The new upstarts that are the crypto-currencies .. well, I clearly lack the necessary intellect to understand these because I just conclude they are all a total nonsense & folk seem able to conjure them out of thin air with more ease than a central bank printing press.

Gold should continue to do increasingly well as more and more folk see that the lunatics really are running the asylum just now.

[friendzarin] 29/12/2017 18:14

Well done Gutterhead for organising the comp and Jeansie for his lucky win ( it’s always luck and not skill when you lose and someone else wins )
Thanks Matt for organising this thread and setting the tone for all that goes on here. Similarly thanks for all the great posters that contribute.
Finally it’s been a good year for consolidation and setting the base here by AAZ. Many thanks to the professionalism and hardwork that Reza and all his team have put in.
Can’t wait for the next news and watching the boosters light up. Best wishes Everyone. Fz

[gutterhead] 29/12/2017 15:32

Gold over $1300, nice finish to 2017.
Good luck to all for next year.
Great thread guys, thank you and well done.
Oh, and well done Jeanesy for winning the “guess the year end share price”
Anything north of 80p by mid next year will do