Anglesey Mining Share Discussion Threads

[kooba] 21/10/2021 07:31

The easy take is that the price of the underlying metal resource is a fundamental basis of valuation with variables around the ability to deliver.

The FS currently being formulated should boost the indicated recoverable resources significantly and updating assumed metal prices even if done extremely conservatively will again add significantly to the NPV. Although the shares will undoubtedly trade at a discount to NPV the discount to NPV is exceptionally large at Anglesey as does not reflect the deliverability of the project. Any buyer of the project would use the NPV as a benchmark to making an offer. With the example on the article , looks like an offer was made for company at about half NPV..Though every situation different. Half of current NPV any guesses?

Basically the FS giving the NPV is based on metal prices and assumption of forward performance and is an essential valuation tool in the industry…the market does not always take this on board..but often leaves company’s exposed to takeover.

The FS will i believe make the current implied valuation of Parys look ridiculous.
No advice

[kooba] 21/10/2021 07:17

Sensitivity to metal prices.Preliminary Economic assessmenthttps://www.angleseymining.co.uk/File/38/en-GBEach case has a detailed financial analysis utilising three-year trailing average metal prices of $US1.20 per pound for zinc, $US2.81 per pound for copper, $US0.95 per pound for lead, $US16.67 per ounce for silver and $US1,459 per ounce for gold, an exchange rate of £1.00=$US1.25.In summary, the most attractive option is the expanded Case C, which, with some $99 million of pre- production capital expenditure, generates a total cumulative cash operating surplus over a 12 year mine life of more than $510 million (£408 million), which translates to a pre-tax Net Present Value discounted at 10% pa of over $120 million (£96 million), with an attractive IRR of 26%.Please note the sensitivity to inputting Jan '21 metal values...extrapolate accordingly to current prices.Using the higher current January 2021 metal prices and exchange rate would double this Case C NPV10 to $238 million (£176 million) and applying a more conservative 12% discount rate to this would result in an NPV12 of $195 million (£144 million).Discussion of market cap over NPVhttps://insights.csaglobal.com/market-value-doesnt-match-npv/

[trader465] 21/10/2021 06:53

djb3 - what do you think has happened to the value of Parys mountain since the copper price has almost doubled?

[smackeraim] 20/10/2021 23:26

Zinc (MZN) is at 3,651.75 (+4.10%) (decade highs)Copper (HG) is at 4.7285 (-0.07%) (decade highs)Lead (LEAD) is at 2,436.00 (+2.53%) (not far off decade highs)They're all strong. The time is right.

[benjamin15] 20/10/2021 22:39

How is the copper price going to affect aym??? It's in the ground going up in price.....,

[djb3] 20/10/2021 21:21

Trader stop being a tool on here as well. You keep mentioning copper price but how is that currently going to affect AYM? - it's only starting further drilling in November so currently not making diddly from copper. In fact copper has gone in the opposite direction to AYM this year. Talking out your ar*e once again.

[noccer] 20/10/2021 13:37

Just bought some at 4.49p - shows as sells as the nominal bid/offer is set at 4.4/4.6, so the trade price is below the halfway point. My last weeks purchases also showed as sells. To whoever is selling below 4.5p - thanks very much.

It will be interesting to see what these drill holes show, and while its clear they need to get white rock really nailed down to get the mine design sorted, I look forward to some further drilling of the other ore bodies.

[trader465] 20/10/2021 13:36

The copper price maybe much higher in two years time

[nickthe saint] 20/10/2021 12:06

can we get to the end of the day without any barbed comments :-)

now there's a challenge!

on a serious note my feeling is that this is best packaged up and window dressed to suitable buyer.

next best JV with dynamic operator

my least favoured, think that we can raise debt and work it ourselves and miss the window of opportunity copper price is now affording us.

[smackeraim] 20/10/2021 11:46

Bloody hell I agree with kooba.

[kooba] 20/10/2021 11:23

The funding of the development phase with equity , debt or jv mix will be the key point as to what's the equity upside and whether dilution is limited...unless of course they package it all up and sell it on which might well be the best option for existing holders if they can get the right price. There are few decent sized copper projects in politically stable areas with good logistics that could be up and running inside 2 years and the big boys..take Rio this morning who are predicting huge shortfalls for decades will be keen to hoover up such opportunities. I bet many companies have cast their eye over Anglesey over the years..better packaging and a more commercial CEO might well bring someone to the table.

[iglenn] 20/10/2021 11:06

I do like your style Kooba. Although I'm not here for the odd %. I'm holding til 50p minimum when I can then afford a flight to go visit the board Guru :-).

[kooba] 20/10/2021 10:29

Correct there was a tiny unwind in the auction which set the closing level which was above the prevailing touch…this is an order driven market not a price driven market where the market makers can have more influence. The price is set by all buyers and sellers..what is likely holding the price back is a lot of retail investors primed to sell on any bounce…i believe this time is different and hopefully loose holders will be absorbed soon enough and the shares might better reflect the progress and opportunity.

[smackeraim] 20/10/2021 10:19

But if it makes you feel better, keep repeating it every day

[smackeraim] 20/10/2021 10:19

You made your point SD

[ged5] 20/10/2021 10:02

Shill10,

"new drilling program, shares down"

The last trade last evening was a I believe an UT trade which set the closing price as 4.59.

The actual spread at the time was 4.2-4.4

It's now 4.4-4.6

So the share price is up.

[spacedust] 20/10/2021 09:54

" we are in a way better position than January when shares traded 10p, Copper 30% higher and new ,management invested in the shares"

Yet we are close to all time lows.

Until the mms decide to release the breaks there's nothing a soul can do about this.

[shill10] 20/10/2021 09:48

new drilling program, shares down, lol - buying every dip from here, look at Copper price and new CEO , we are in a way better position than January when shares traded 10p, Copper 30% higher and new ,management invested in the shares.

[iglenn] 20/10/2021 08:43

Don't mention charts lol. We just need to close above 4.8 I reckon to break previous recent highs. Then I would agree, clear air above. Fingers crossed. We still have some news outstanding regarding 2 other management appointments which could completely reinvigorate this outfit. That really would be welcome news.

[broken_arrow1] 20/10/2021 08:26

Very little stock on offer this morning, chart looks good for a breakout with very little resistance to the 8p range.

[benjamin15] 20/10/2021 08:20

This is going to blow soon..gla

[smackeraim] 20/10/2021 08:16

Bit late for those guys. They're all clocking 80 lol .. Jo is the fresh blood, and he's put his money in.

[linz22] 20/10/2021 08:13

You'd think, with this new drive of positivity emanating from AYM, that the company directors might be scrambling to rebuy shares and replenish their squandered stock.., no?

[iglenn] 20/10/2021 07:46

Agreed Benjamin, was going to say the same thing. Jo seems to understand investor relations better than the old gang and its only taken him 12 days since the fund-raising to produce a meaningful update. Bodes well. As does their choice of Drilling Company...they are very experienced in Zinc, Lead and Silver mining.