Amryt Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[papillon] 05/3/2018 13:17

Many thanks for your post, diamondstar. It just confirms my gut feeling that we will know of the fate of AP101 (and the fate of my gamble as well!!) on the 15th March. It's obviously big news day, greendragon, hence the analysts briefing. Whether AP101 has a future, or like with Zorblisa AMYT throw in the towel on AP101. If it's a 7am RNS then the AMYT share price could open up significantly higher than the previous days close, or significantly lower, dependent on whether the news is good, or bad.

I draw my own support and resistance lines on the AMYT chart, Goku28, but I'll post a link to a site that does it for you later on.

[greendragon777] 05/3/2018 12:24

Thanks for the insights Diamondstar, very helpful as always. The trading update must surely be related to the interim results for AP101. Lojuxta sales would not have dramatically changed over the last number of weeks/months and any new licensing deals would be announced through a regular RNS.

Begs the question again though why and interim trial results aren't just announced as a regular RNS? Is it normal procedure to update these types of results via a trading update? I guess it will be fairly material if it's a trading update one way or the other.

No doubt we'll all be glued to our screens the morning of the 15th! haha

[diamondstar1] 05/3/2018 11:41

My predictions for timing of release of Episalvan EASE Ph III results. I have based my predictions based on information available in the public domain related to the ongoing Episalvan trial:

hxxps://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03068780.

This info was last updated (presumably by Amryt on Feb 27, 2018).

It states that the EASE trial:- Actual start date (first patient in) was: March 29, 2017. Estimated Primary Completion (all patients data collected for primary outcome): Sept 2018, meaning that they are estimating that all patients would have been recruited 45 days earlier i.e. mid-July 2018. Effective recruitment period is between March 2017 and July 2018 – with a total of recruitment period of 17 months.

EASE has 164 patients, therefore average patients recruited per month = 9.6 patients per month. EASE interims are with 50% of patients recruited (82 patients) therefore time to reach interims = 8.5 months. I am assuming that recruitment rate was 50% in the first month (April 2017) and at 100% thereafter, as more sites are activated.

This implies that all 82 patients would have been recruited by Dec 31st 2017. The last patients recruited would need to be followed up for a further 45 days (to observe Primary Endpoint) – therefore the last data for the interims would have been collected from patients in mid-Feb 2018. After this, the data needs collected and added to the database, processed (with tabulation and validation of data) and then the Interim Data reviewed by the Data Safety Monitoring Board (DSMB). This process should take about 4 weeks.

So, my guess is that the EASE Interims should be available in middle March 2018. Obviously, there can be margins of error to my calculations (eg +/- 4 weeks), therefore the results are anticipated in March – April 2018. However, this Mid-March date ties in very well with the update being provided by Amryt.

[goku28] 05/3/2018 11:06

Apologises, I should have been more specific, a chart where it shows the support and resistance levels?

[diamondstar1] 05/3/2018 10:59

Another big buy of 125,000 shares at around 9 am this morning... good support at 19p.

[papillon] 05/3/2018 09:03

Every financial web site, including advfn, Goku28, shows charts.

I noticed on the lse bb that a poster thinks that the March 15th update will be about Lojuxta. I can't see that being the case. We've had plenty of newsflow already on Lojuxta. It's just a sideshow compared with the main, star, attraction, AP101, so why have an update and analysts briefing on a sideshow? No, I believe the March 15th update is about the AP101 interim results (the EASE phase III trial). I believe that those interim results will be available then and be ready to be released in an RNS. Fingers crossed that they are good!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I believe the AMYT chart has been bearish since the placing RNS dated 21st September, because many shareholders and potential shareholders took the view that the placing was a sign that the AMYT BoD had suddenly become less confident in the success of AP101 in the wake of the only competitor (Zorblisa) throwing in the towel after disappointing phase III interim trial results (after very promising phase II results).

I believe that the "Market" took the attitude that the AMYT BoD took fright at the Zorblisa decision and got their placing away @ 20p when they might have trouble getting one away at a significantly lower price after the AP101 results bearing in mind that analysts thought AMYT would have needed to raise more cash in the summer of 2018. I definitely think that ShareProphets took that view.

I thought at the time that the placing announcement was rather suspiciously sudden just after the release of the Zorblisa news, especially as investors had started buying and pushing up the AMYT share price after that Zorblisa news. The placing and at such a large discount, killed that buying interest stone dead. It was as though PI's were bouyed by the Zorblisa news, whereas the AMYT BoD weren't.

I took the view at the time that the BoD were just being cautious and that the biggest shareholder (Software AG) was taking the opportunity to sustantially increase it's share stake at a cheap price when to buy such a large stake in the market would be significantly more expensive for them (big buying would push up the sp). Also any placing after the AP101 interim trial results would be at a far higher price if the results were good.

AMYT is a £5k gamble for me. I've a feeling that March 15th will tell me whether my gamble has been a success, or failure!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

PS. You're being rather silly, pottermagic, if you think charts are completely useless. Granted they are more useful for bigger Mkt Cap shares, but it's unwise to ignore them completely for small cap shares like AMYT.

I agree they only record historical price movements, but many traders successfully trade (and make money!) by using chart indicators such as RSI & MACD to determine when to buy and sell. If you don't believe me when I say that RSI & MACD can be useful indicators of when to buy and sell have a look at the AMYT chart since it floated. I think you will find they have been useful. History can often (but not always) be a good guide to the future. If only President Trump wasn't so ignorant when it comes to economic history he might not be talking about trade wars!

[goku28] 05/3/2018 01:28

Where are you finding these charts?

[papillon] 04/3/2018 00:19

Hopefully we'll see the chart resistance @ circa 20.25p tested next week. If that resistance is broken it becomes support and the next resistance level is at circa 27p.

[greendragon777] 03/3/2018 00:29

I haven't read any in depth articles on Beaufort but I wonder how long they were up to their antics and how got away with it up til now!

Begs the question too on how many other bad players there are out there. 🙄

Markets down a good bit this week Paps....investors voting with their feet per se on protectionism. If a trade was does break out it could get very ugly as I can't see Trump backing down on anything he does!

Let's hope AMYT can produce some good news before it all kicks off! 😃

[papillon] 02/3/2018 23:52

"In a complaint filed in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of New York, the SEC alleges that Beaufort Securities Ltd. and Peter Kyriacou, an investment manager at Beaufort, manipulated the market for HD View’s common stock. The scheme involved an undercover FBI agent who described his business as manipulating U.S. stocks through pump-and-dump schemes. Kyriacou and the agent discussed depositing large blocks of microcap stock in Beaufort accounts, driving up the price of the stock through promotions, manipulating the stock’s price and volume through matched trades, and then selling the shares for a large profit."

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

No wonder the FCA forced Beaufort's into administration, greendragon. Luckily AMYT had no connection with Beaufort's. Not so lucky were NUOG:

[greendragon777] 02/3/2018 18:24

Yikes, that would be worrying. Wonder what happens in that situation. Can the shares be liquidated by the liquidator or do they strictly belong to the client?

Well spotted Paps, nothing gets passed you! 😉👍

Mine are with IG thankfully. Hopefully no one here had them with Beaufort.

[papillon] 02/3/2018 18:01

Bit worrying for clients (shares held in nominee a/c's) of Beaufort Securities since the FCA has put them into administration today. Luckily my AMYT shares are held in a iii (previously TDW) nominee a/c.

It then got worse for Beaufort as it is named in a US$50m fraud & money laundering case in US.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Friday, March 2, 2018
Six Individuals And Four Corporate Defendants Indicted In $50 Million International Securities Fraud And Money Laundering Schemes
Defendants Proposed that Undercover Law Enforcement Agent Purchase a Pablo Picasso Painting to Launder Fraudulent Profits From Stock Manipulation Scheme

A multi-count indictment was unsealed yesterday, in federal court in Brooklyn, against Panayiotis Kyriacou, Arvinsingh Canaye, Adrian Baron, Linda Bullock, Matthew Green, and Aristos Aristodemou; Beaufort Securities Ltd (“Beaufort Securities”), a brokerage firm located in London, United Kingdom; Beaufort Management Services Ltd (“Beaufort Management”), an off-shore management company located in Mauritius; Loyal Bank Ltd (“Loyal Bank”), an off-shore bank with offices in Budapest, Hungary and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines; and Loyal Agency and Trust Corp. (“Loyal Agency”), an off-shore management company located in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

The charges include conspiracy to commit securities fraud and money laundering conspiracy. Canaye was arrested yesterday and is scheduled to be arraigned this afternoon before United States Magistrate Judge Vera M. Scanlon at the federal courthouse in Brooklyn.

Richard P. Donoghue, United States Attorney for the Eastern District of New York, William F. Sweeney, Jr., Assistant Director-in-Charge, Federal Bureau of Investigation, New York Field Office (FBI), and James D. Robnett, Special Agent-in-Charge, Internal Revenue Service Criminal Investigation, New York (IRS-CI), announced the charges.

[papillon] 02/3/2018 17:32

The person who bought the 200 @ 18.95p @ 4.18pm was just very unlucky with his timing, because he bought 4 minutes too late! Someone bought 125,000 @ the then full asking price of 18.40p just 4 minutes earlier @ 4.14pm and that was what pushed the price up just prior to the close! Reporting on this trade was delayed by an hour, because of it's size, until after the market closed.

Hopefully this 125k buy bodes well for the AMYT share price on Monday and we see the share price starting to rise. I'm pleased about that because I don't intend anymore top ups.

[greendragon777] 02/3/2018 16:50

Thanks Diamondstar, we'll soon find out I guess.

Someone is clearly hoping for early retirement with those 200 shares. 😁

[papillon] 02/3/2018 16:36

Must be an insider buying, diamondstar! LOL. The current asking price is now 18.90p, so perhaps he got a good deal? LOL. Has that buy triggered the rise in the sp, or did it rise before and he was just unlucky? LOL.

[diamondstar1] 02/3/2018 16:23

Who is the one buying 200 shares @ 18.95p? Obviously, an Amryt supporter!

[diamondstar1] 02/3/2018 14:49

Hi Greendragon, usually they do not present updates with the interim results.... I’m in the dark as you guys.

[greendragon777] 02/3/2018 13:21

We'll know pretty soon I guess. The share price is certainly holding up very well given the markets have been tanking on Trump's ridiculous protectionist tariff announcement!

At least we can wake up from hibernation Paps, looks like things are about to get interesting! :-)

[papillon] 02/3/2018 12:53

Yes, greendragon, today's RNS is strange news. Why have an update just prior to the 2017 final results? Is it good, or bad, news?

[greendragon777] 02/3/2018 12:20

Interesting....we might finally know our fate. Perhaps Diamondstar could throw some light on this. Is it normal procedure to give a trading update with regard the interims? Why give notice to it, would it not just go out as an RNS with the results?