Amryt Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[papillon] 27/2/2018 19:57

That link to Aegerion's problems from 21/7/2016 that I highlighted again today in response to Bronxville's assertion on the lse bb that I had only recently come across Aegerion's financial plight contains the following:

"But it added that it will “maintain certain infrastructure in the EU” to support the launch of Myalept (metreleptin for injection) on the continent, ahead of an anticipated approval next year. The FDA gave it the green light back in 2014.

The drug treats congenital generalized or acquired generalized lipodystrophy, a condition associated with a lack of fat tissue. Aegerion bought the rights to Myalept from AstraZeneca ($AZN) two years ago, paying $325 million upfront."



The link was originally posted by Icebreaker (what happened to him?). He was very bullish a year ago. I reposted the link (around a year ago) to enable readers to easily access it.

Well as I posted yesterday could AMYT license in the other drug, MYALEPT, that Novelion is currently selling in the America's? Well MYALEFT has received approval for it to be sold in the E.U.. I wonder what the odds are on AMYT licensing in MYALEFT in the near future?

Aegerion paid an awful lot of cash, UPFRONT, to AZN back in 2014 for the rights to MYALEFT. No wonder they ended up in Carey Street as a basket case!! I think AZN got the better of that deal judging by the sales of MYALEFT ($13.5m in the 3rd Qtr of 2017)

[papillon] 27/2/2018 18:46

I'm well stocked, greendragon. Freezer full.

[greendragon777] 27/2/2018 18:15

Wasn't me Paps, I topped a little while back so I'm pretty much done for the foreseeable future. Nice to see some decent buy orders coming in though.

We should hopefully be getting the notice of annual results this week so at least we'll have a definitive date to work towards for the year end results and some guidance on 2018.

In the meantime, all seems to be very quiet on the western front! :-)

Have you got your tinned food, heating oil and a snow plough all stocked up and ready for the 'beast from the east' Paps? The Eastern Europeans will be laughing at us as the country grinds to a hault when it's not even a very cold period by their standards! hahaha

[papillon] 27/2/2018 18:03

Bronxville, you "tool", this is my first post on Aegerion's financial plight. It details Aegerion's problems and is dated 21/7/16

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papillon 7 Mar '17 - 14:45 - 872 of 2268 Edit



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PS. Pleased to hear you took the hit and dumped 3/4 of your AMYT shares at 21.25p, Bronxville. ATB LOL.

[papillon] 27/2/2018 17:33

Well somebody bought 100k @ 17.80p this afternoon. A £17.8k punt + commission. Somebody likes a gamble. £17.8k? A big gambler, compared to my paltry £357 + commission! I'm a cheapskate by comparison! LOL. Was that you greendragon?

[papillon] 27/2/2018 15:17

O/T It's early days re UKOG, ccr1958, after last weeks bad news. The UKOG share price has gone up today on relatively low volume (especially when compared to last week). I wish you the best of luck with your trade, but lets see what the UKOG share price is in a months time, before rushing to a judgement. Personally it doesn't worry me whether UKOG goes to 9p again, or sub 1p again. I just gave my opinion. I may be right, I may be wrong; either way I wont gain, or lose money! You're the one taking the risk, NOT me. Let's hope you have better luck with today's "position" in UKOG than with your previous "positions" in UKOG.

My only concern at the moment is whether the circa 17p support holds for AMYT and when to time my top up (if I do decide to top up).

EDIT: 3.41pm 27/2/18. Just had my small top up. Only bought 2k shares. That takes me up to a round 25k. At which I will stick and await the 2017 final results RNS & the EASE interim trial results. If I'm lucky my shares could be worth at least double what I paid for them (around £10k+) by 30th June. If I'm unlucky they could be worth only £2k by then. FINGERS CROSSED it's the former!!

O/T. I notice your UKOG trade is NOT up 8% now, ccr1958! That's what happens when you boast! LOL Let's see what the share price is in a months time with your T20 trade. LOL.

[ccr1958] 27/2/2018 14:45

Thx for that trade papilloma,as a matter of interest do you have any other stocks on your radar that you think will bomb ?

[ccr1958] 27/2/2018 14:05

Papilloma, good luck here , tooooooo boring for me not unlike you.... I just opened a position on UKOG on your advice ... 😉 up 8% as we speak ....

[papillon] 27/2/2018 12:55

ccr1958, another idiot who has lost a load of money by buying O&G shares like UKOG & LOGP when their sp's were a lot, lot, higher than they are now and still holds them! LOL. I'm getting quite a few idiots stalking me these days. LOL. I take it as a compliment, ccr1958.

Why am I still here? Well I'm only down around 10-15% and I've always stated that I'm holding for the EASE trial results. If I hadn't topped up before the surprising placing news last September I wouldn't be down 10-15%.

Fortunately I have decided to risk no more than £5k on AMYT, so if the EASE trial results are bad I wont lose my shirt. I'm just having a manageable gamble on the EASE trial result. The Lojuxta revenue could limit my loss to maybe £2.5k.

If you look back through my posts, ccr1958, you will see that I always point out that my charts are only a guide. News blows my charts out of the water. I've posted that many a time. However there has been no "knockout" news issued by AMYT since last September's gob smacking placing RNS. That really blew the chart out of the water!! Hence my chart has proved to be a good guide. I predicted the filling of November's Gap Up in the CONTINUING ABSENCE of really good news. I'm contemplating a £500 top up this week; maybe today. And that's me fully invested in AMYT. It's sh*t, or bust, as far as I'm concerned with my £5k investment. I like to gamble. The 14 day RSI is very, very, oversold.

PS. My UKOG chart says it's going below 1p.

[ccr1958] 27/2/2018 12:17

Papilloma if you know your charts so well why are you sitting in here while the share price slides .?

[papillon] 27/2/2018 11:22

My chart forecasts have turned out to be CORRECT! I posted that it was likely that the Gap Up on the candlestick chart following on from the Midas tip last November would be filled and it has. My chart predicted strong support at circa 17.25p and it looks like that strong support might be tested. Some posters say that charts don't work for small Mkt Cap shares, but my AMYT chart forecasts proves they can!

PS Glad you read my posts, Bronxville! Just for your information I knew that Aegerion had to be bailed out by Novelion back in December 2016 just after the AMYT Lojuxta dea (my posts at the time prove that)l. Do you know sometimes I think it would be worth my losing the £4.5k I've invested in AMYT just to know you have also lost money!! I read the RNS's and take notice of my charts. You should also do the same, Bronxville. How much did you pay for your FAST shares? Do you need AMYT to 5-bag, or even 10-bag to get your money back? PROBABLY! LOL. YOU PLONKER!

[papillon] 27/2/2018 00:03

Novelion subsiduary, Aegerion, sentenced by US court. Has to set up US$7.2m restitution fund as part of US$40.1m global settlement. Who's been a naughty boy then? Aegerion evidently has been in the past! No wonder Aegerion needed to be taken over (and bailed out!) by Novelion at the end of 2016! That's also no doubt why AMYT got such a good deal on Lojuxta (Juxtapid)



Novelion is, evidently, not doing too well. Not helped by Aegerion's past naughtiness!
Trying to reduce operational expenses in 2018 by $18m. Cutting workforce.



Novelion 3rd Qtr results for 2017. It's burning the old cash! Juxtapid (Lojuxta) sales were $15.2m for the 3rd Qtr. So they must be growing because the company is sticking with it's $70-$75m forecast for 2017.



I wonder if there is another licensing opertunity for AMYT with the other Novelion drug that has been approved and which it is selling in North America, MYALEPT? After all I doubt if Novelion has the resources, or inclination, to market MYALEPT in Europe.

They were looking for a new CEO; I wonder if they should have headhunted Bronxville? After all he knows a thing, or two, about running a biopharma! LOL.

[spuddymadrid] 26/2/2018 20:50

You know your Stuff Diamondstar. A very comprehensive response. Thank you for your time. Good night to you. Lets just hope the result is positive

[diamondstar1] 26/2/2018 20:23

And before the Interim data is analysed.... there is absolutely no evaluation of ongoing study data allowed. So, nobody should have an idea of how the Episalvan is performing (vs. Placebo) before the Interim Analysis.

[diamondstar1] 26/2/2018 20:17

The interim data from the Episalvan Ph III EASE trial should be evaluated by a Data Monitoring Committee (DMC) which is usually composed of at least 3 independent experts (including 1 statistician). After evaluating the data, the DMC for EASE will provide one of the following 3 options: 1) Continue the study as planned 2) Increase the number of patients to increase statistical power, OR, 3) Terminate the study due to futility. Sometimes, depending on the study, a very few pharma company members (known as ‘unblindedR17; members) may also be aware of the study results. These members are sworn to secrecy, and cannot communicate the results to other wider company members who are involved in the study (called ‘blinded’; members). Failure to ensure an adequate firewall and allowing the study results to be ‘leaked’ can have very serious consequences. Firstly, this can bias the study results (and people now expect certain results) and can result in Regulators asking for a repeat study. This could have a huge financial consequence, as a study like EASE (with 164 patients) could cost somewhere in the region of £15 million pounds (my personal estimate).

[spuddymadrid] 26/2/2018 19:35

Thats a very good response to you both. Thank you very much. Have met Catal Friel.Smart Chap. I believe Papillon's thesis is correct. Would be easier to raise capital for new company if the Amryt story is positive. Wonder how the information on these drug trials is diseminated. Are Amryt privy to the trial progress And ongoing results or are they just awaiting mid-trial results like the rest of us - in the dark

[papillon] 26/2/2018 19:22

Hi, spuddymadrid. Hope all is well with you. I can't improve on diamondstar's answer to your question. He's the biopharma expert. I'm just an ignorant gambler, by comparison. However I would say that Cathiel Friel is only the second largest shareholder in AMYT and does not sit on the AMYT BoD anymore. Cathal Friel holds 12.04% of AMYT's shares. Raglan holds no shares. The largest shareholder is Software AG-Stiftung with 22.30%. That does have a presence on the AMYT BoD. Hence if Open Orphan does list there would be no conflict of interest from a legal standpoint even if Friel was on the Open Orphan BoD since he is considered to be just a shareholder in AMYT; a big one, but still just a shareholder. Don't forget you also get Directors who sit on numerous listed company BoD's without it being considered to be a conflict of interest.

[diamondstar1] 26/2/2018 18:07

Hi Spuddymadrid, I’ll try to respond to your question first, and maybe Paps can chip in also.

Firstly, Amryt and Open Orphan are separate companies, and there should not be any sharing of information between both companies (though both have been funded by Raglan Capital). Open Orphan are planning a share listing later on and Amryt is listed on AIM - it’s accountability should be towards its shareholders.

Looking at Amryt, it’s core therapeutic areas are currently 1) Dermatology (Episalvan) and 2) Endocrinology (AP102). They are supported by Ray Stafford, who made Sudocream a commercial success. Joe Wiley CEO is a Neurologist, so I would not be surprised if they look at Neurology orphan drugs in the near future.

Open Orphan is led by CEO/CMO Dairine Dempsey, who is a PhD Pharmacist, with a strong regulatory background. This is obviously very early days to see what orphan drugs they will try to in-license to EU. I suspect oncology drugs might be one consideration, but these are my personal thoughts.

Amryt, on the other hand, has clinical development capabilities, and this differentiates it from Open Orphan. It is already selling Lojuxta in EU, therefore has first mover advantage in terms of marketing capabilities.

So to summarise, I think there are major differences between the 2 companies, and hopefully, not too much therapeutic area overlap in orphan indications.

[spuddymadrid] 26/2/2018 16:51

Hello Papillon. Hope all well. Agree with you AMryt a good investment still. Think that this new company launch is likely as you have said to be on back of successful AP101 trials. Cannot imagine anybody trying to raise money in the event of AP101 failure. One question. Is it is obviously legal thatba shareholder launches a new company in the same market sector. Not sure how this will work in terms of competition between two companies and possibly information flowing from one to the other. Do you think they will be targetting a diferent business profile.

[papillon] 26/2/2018 14:50

Bronxville
Posts: 104
Off Topic
Opinion: No Opinion
Price: 18.05
RE: New pharma start upsToday 10:44Isn't that supposed to be Amryt business model??..
So its AP101 or nothing...
We'll not be getting anymore Lojuxta arrangements!(and Lojuxta imo aint no great shakes)

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Why is Lojuxta "no great shakes"? AMYT were predicting 50% growth rates and a possible maximum turnover of 100m Euro's in RNS's last year; turnover was predicted to be 10.5m Euro's in 2017. If that's "no great shakes" then I'm a Dutchman!

"AP101 or nothing". That's not true; AMYT will still have Lojuxta. Hold on! That's "no great shakes". If I was as bearish as you, Bronxville, I'd sell. In fact if I was as bearish as you I'd have sold ages ago! LOL.

[papillon] 26/2/2018 12:25

Interesting last paragraph there, pottermagic. I can't see it happening though. Your thinking is flawed. If AP101 is successful and the AMYT Mkt Cap is £100m+ as a consequence, then I could see a listing of Open Orphan suddenly becoming a very, very, attractive proposition to new investors via a placing. In other words they could get the placing away at a far higher price. If AP101 and hence AMYT is deemed a failure that could make a successful listing of Open Orphan harder (a lower placing price would mean it attracts less money).

I don't see Open Orphan "merging with/acquiring AMYT by year end" whatever the outcome of the AP101 phase III trials. The success, or failure, of AP101 will impact the placing price of Open Orphan when it lists. If AP101 is successful an Open Orphan placing will be at a far higher price.

Raglan have co-founded a number of O&G companies. COVE & FAST listed, but others remain unlisted because of the lower oil price. He's never, to my knowledge, merged the O&G's co-founded by Raglan. I can't see Friel doing that with AMYT and Open Orphan either. They would be worth less as a merged entity. As separate listed companies they would be worth more (and hence Raglan's stake would be worth more) whatever the outcomes of the AP101 phase III trial.

PS. You can buy below the mid price so I believe the share price could well drift lower

[pottermagic2310] 26/2/2018 12:05

OO is underpinned/financed by Raglan, who are fundamental to our own Business.

Looks like the same "crowd" pursuing something similar but with less focus on producing (an) Orphan Drug(s) and more focus on being able to sell them across EMEA when already licensed in the US.

Can see the new Business merging with/acquiring AMYT by year-end if a) the Trial goes well or b) we're bust should the trial go badly. Quite transparent when you think it through.

[papillon] 26/2/2018 12:02

So Cathal Friel's Raglan Capital has co-founded another orphan drugs specialist following on from co-founding AMYT. Mr Friel has obviously decided these orphan drug biopharmas are now the way to go, after going rather cool on Oil & Gas explorers! LOL. He had a big success with COVE, but FAST was an abject failure. LOL.

[papillon] 26/2/2018 11:48

Many thanks for the link, diamondstar.