Amryt Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[bigwavedave] 05/9/2017 12:59

You snooze, you lose.

[greendragon777] 04/9/2017 22:52

Exactly Paps. As Warren Buffet elegantly put it one time...."the stock market is a very efficient mechanism for transferring money from the impatient to the patient" :-)

10 Baggers don't happen overnight so we just gotta ride this bad boy out for longer time frame.....and besides, one always feels better after a good snooze! haha

Happy snoozin' fellas! zzzzzzzzzzzzZZZZZZZZZZZZ

[papillon] 04/9/2017 22:28

I think I'll go back to sleep until we get some exciting news. There was nothing exciting about today's RNS hence the rather lukewarm market reaction to it. Hopefully we will get some eciting news in the meantime, otherwise we'll have to be patient and wait for the interim trial update in H1 2018. zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

[papillon] 04/9/2017 16:28

Lojuxta sales were 5.75m Euros for the 6 months to 30/6/17. They were 1.859m Euros for January & February. That's 3.891m for the following 4 months. Small amount of growth.

[papillon] 04/9/2017 16:18

Wise decision, greendragon, as the share price hasn't "escaped" those tight Bollinger Bands. Expect further sideways share price movement between circa 20p - 23p (as per the last few months) until we get news that excites investor interest. That buying interest could happen after the presentation in New York (12th September), but then again it may not! Depends on how potential North American investors perceive the company and it's prospects.

Hopefully we'll get another Lojuxta type licencing deal before the end of 2017, but then again we might not!

[greendragon777] 04/9/2017 13:08

Perhaps not the big jump up that we were hoping for but at least it's a positive set of results. My guess is that it's probably still a bit early for most investors to pile in because it's at least a year away from any very significant news (unless another Lojuxta type deal is done of course) so maybe it won't see any movement until we get closer to that, perhaps early to the mid 2018.

Anyway I offloaded my entire margin position as I don't like holding anything on margin for any significant periods of time. I broke even on the trade which is fine, I was hoping for a larger upswing and that didn't happen so happy to get out of it now. It was a free trade, that's how I look at it!

I haven't checked today's volume but it will be interesting to see what it is for the day at close of business!

[papillon] 04/9/2017 12:20

There was a "gap up" this morning as the MM's "opened" with a higher share price than Friday's closing price. That might need to be "filled". We shall see.

I thought the results were okay, but it's not what I think that's important it's what potential buyers (or sellers) think that matters.

[alphabravo321] 04/9/2017 10:49

Bit of profit taking today, to be expected from the traders

[pottermagic2310] 04/9/2017 10:13

That 'write-off' of the final $7.7m for the purchase of Birken seems to be significant for the coming 6 months and next year with $10m in the Bank still and the Sales Forecast looking good.

Happy Days
;-)

[paleje] 04/9/2017 09:15

Beaufort upgraded a bit this am, to target 65p

Amryt Pharma (LON:AMYT, 21.88p)– Speculative Buy
The commercial stage pharmaceutical company focused on acquiring, developing and delivering innovative new treatments to help improve the lives of patients with rare and orphan diseases, this morning has presented its unaudited interim results for the six-month period ended 30 June 2017. The Board reported that since achieving its AIM Admission through a RTO on 8 April 2016, the Group has made excellent progress. This included advancing its development product candidates, completing the Licensing Agreement for Lojuxta, and securing access to non-dilutive funding from the European Investment Bank ('EIB') of €20 million. Total revenues for the period amounted to €6,180,000. Lojuxta generated revenues of €5,751,000 and revenues from Imlan, the Group's derma-cosmetics range of products, amounted to €429,000; this compares with total revenues for the period from the completion of the RTO on 18 April 2016 to 31 December 2016 of €1,351,000. Gross margin for the six months to 30 June 2017 was 59.3% compared to 56.6% for the year ended 31 December 2016. Loss on ordinary activities for the Group before tax of €13.8 million included development costs of its lead product now in Phase III clinical trials, AP101 (a new treatment for Epidermolysis Bullosa), and AP102 (which is expected to enter clinical trials in 2018 targeting Acromegaly and/or Cushing's disease) and a non-cash charge of €7.7m, relating to contingent consideration following the acquisition of Birken in 2016. As at 30 June 2017, the Company had cash on hand of €10.9 million. On 2 December 2016, Amryt entered into a five year €20 million debt facility agreement with the EIB; the first tranche of €10 million was drawn down on 3 April 2017. Non-executive Chairman, Harry Stratford, noted in his interim statement "Amryt has made excellent operational and strategic progress to date and we look forward to reporting on further progress as we continue to develop the business."

Our View: Delivering on every promise and more! This truly impressive half-year report highlights a management very much in control of an ambitious programme that spreads across a multiple Rare Diseases, meeting or exceeding best expectations in every case. The low-risk in-licencing of Lojuxta, a treatment for Homozygous Familial Hypercholesterolemia ('HoFH'), for example, which was completed only in December 2016, has since seen sales grow by 50%; confidence in continued progress is such that management has now revised upwards its estimate of the potential market for HoFH in its territories to approximately €100 million. Beaufort's own model for Lojuxta (which is detailed in its major report of 23rd May 2017 on Amryt Pharma) assumed peak sales of just US$50m by 2029 on the basis it has already broadened its opportunity through a paediatric investigation plan ('PIP'). As far as Amryt's lead development asset, AP101, is concerned, management confirmed its interim analysis readout is expected in H1 2018; this will, if necessary, enable the Group to increase the number of patients in the study to maintain an exceptional 80% chance of success. For AP102, pre-clinical studies are now expected to be completed in Q4 2017 and the Board has detailed its intention to seek approval from the regulatory authorities to commence clinical trials in humans in 2018. There is also good news on the balance sheet – always a sensitive issue when dealing with cash hungry drug developers. The charge of €7.7m included in the Group's total loss on ordinary activities is a non-cash accounting item; the first €10m tranche from the five year EIB debt facility was drawn down on 3 April 2017, leaving €10.9m cash-in-hand at the end of June, much higher than the €8.5m Beaufort had assumed by this stage and even suggests it will now be necessary to draw down only a further €5m in 2017 (rather than the €10m anticipated). Having clearly 'set out their table', there is high confidence that Amryt's management is capable delivering on its promises and vision for its future. All of which, begs a further question. Why exactly are European investors still failing to grasp the very significant financial and commercial benefits available for Orphan and Rare Disease drug developers? Although Amryt finds no quoted peers in London, a good basket of NASDAQ-listed comparables are seen to command a significant premium despite mostly being pre-revenue and somewhat earlier in their development. Such anomalies can and, of course, do rapidly correct. Given that Amryt's lead indication has a demonstrable market opportunity in excess of US$1.3bn, is fully-funded to the point of delivering 'Topline data' in less than 9 months, while high-margin licensing revenues are now profitably building out alongside a robust pipeline, such an event is clearly overdue. Beaufort retains its Speculative Buy rating on Amryt Phara, while reflecting on the fact that that quite amazingly the Group's valuation is presently less than Lojuxta's prudently discounted future cashflow on its own. Factoring today's news into its detailed model, Beaufort has upgraded its price target for Amryt Pharma to 65p (from 62p previously).

Beaufort Securities provides corporate sponsored research to Amryt Pharma plc

[bigwavedave] 04/9/2017 08:15

Good stuff :-)

[greendragon777] 04/9/2017 07:51

All looking good for AMYT with Lojuxta powering ahead.€5.75m H1
sales for the drug which is very positive. What are the expected FY sales of the drug does anyone know? I couldn't find it at first glance.

I guess if it's straight up it would put the sales at €11.5 plus circa 10% growth in H2 putting est FY sales at circa €12m. Of course this again is probably quite conservative as they should be breaking new markets at that point surely.

I think overall we're looking very good folks, I'm expecting an uplift in the share price today but we'll see.

2018 is gonna be a MASSIVE year for AMYT!

[alphabravo321] 04/9/2017 07:21

Very nice RNS! Potential Lojuxta market of 100 mill to sustain us until Episalvan comes on stream!

[rollthedice] 04/9/2017 07:18

Revenues & margin exceeded management expectations... looking good for H2.

[greendragon777] 03/9/2017 20:16

That sure would be sweet AB. However from the limited bit of research I've done on getting listed on the NASDAQ, it seems that fairly tough criteria is applied with regards turnover, profitably etc and I'm not sure AMYT is ready would meet the required criteria at the moment. I could be way off though so take that with a pinch of salt!

[alphabravo321] 03/9/2017 19:36

An update on a potential NASDAQ listing application would be the icing on the cake!

[greendragon777] 03/9/2017 18:59

Good point AB....if Lojuxta performs well enough to support all AMYT's future funding requirements (even if it's in the form of bank debt on the strength of Lojuxta etc) then that would be a massive milestone reached.

T minus 12 hours to showtime! 😁

Good luck to all AMYT shareholders! 👍

[alphabravo321] 03/9/2017 17:22

I feel tomorrow will be a big piece of the AMYT story, hopefully strong sales of Lojuxta will highlight Amryts potential as it will no longer be reliant on fund raising and we can draw a line under the financial viability of the company going forward... one of the best RNS' in share price terms was the note about the EIB loan, at this stage the market wants to see financial strength issues resolved first so we can all then focus on the products and the future...in other words, the future and your prospects are pipe dreams unless you have the money to last as long as it takes to realise them...I am hoping the Lojuxta sales will do just that for us...

[greendragon777] 01/9/2017 13:53

Nice one Paps thanks a mil. I'll set the clock for 7.55am....that'll give me 5 minutes to flick through the interims and make a call on what way to trade my margin position! Haha

Regardless of what it contains though I won't be touching my shares....I'm holding those until we're bought out! 😁

Well Paps, it's all gonna kick off next week! 😉

[papillon] 01/9/2017 13:19

Many thanks for the explanation, green dragon.

The interims will be shown on here, or thelse, or mon eyAM at 7am when they are issued by the company. You'll have to make sure you set the alarm for 7am! Too early for me I'm afraid! LOL

sp starting to take off again as I post. Wouldn't like to guess what the MM's will open the price at on Monday morning.

[greendragon777] 01/9/2017 11:25

I like the way you're thinking AB.....I have the popcorn out over here! :-)

[alphabravo321] 01/9/2017 11:05

I'm betting on a late run post lunch time....