Amryt Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[greendragon777] 01/9/2017 10:06

That would be nice Alphabravo......it would set it up nicely ahead of Monday's interims to possibly head towards the late 20's or maybe higher on the back of some very positive results! :-)

[alphabravo321] 01/9/2017 08:16

A close above 23?

[greendragon777] 31/8/2017 23:20

I'm not entirely sure how the brokerage firms operate their margin accounts but I'm guessing they immediately place the order on the market buy or sell.

For example if you place a trade on margin for say £1,000 per point (per penny) @ 25% deposit requirement then that would translate into circa £20k (100k shares @ 20p) worth of shares.

Not sure if the numbers above are correct but it should roughly be how it works. I'm sure someone else here could explain it more elegantly! 😁

Nice to see it picking up pace today....will be interesting to see how tomorrow goes, another 6% uplift would do nicely! Haha

By the way Paps, how can we get the interims in the quickest possible way do you know? Just in case I need to make an immediate call based on the results, I don't want to be late to the party! :-)

[papillon] 31/8/2017 22:00

Couple of late reported (after market closed at 4.30pm) 100,000 trades. Who knows for certain whether they are buys or sells? One was timed at 2.50pm and is probably a sell. The other is timed at 5.09pm. Probably a buy? Could it be similar to greendragons 97,000 buy on margin a few weeks ago and the trade is to cover that margin call? Perhaps greendragon could enlighten us on how that margin trade works?

[greendragon777] 31/8/2017 15:48

She's finally on the move.....here we go my fellow AMYTonians! 😁

[diamondstar1] 31/8/2017 15:12

Good to see a move up in price to 20.99. Keep our fingers crosses that this positive trend continues from now on, till after Sept 4th!

[papillon] 31/8/2017 13:11

A very good, rational, post, diamondstar. There were a number of posts on this bb on Scioderm and it's valuation compared to that of AMRYT when AMYRT listed. There was talk then of AMYT being a potential 10-bagger if it was "taken out" on a par valuation to Scioderm.

The fall in the AMYT share price (It went from an intraday high of circa 36p on the first day of dealings to an intraday low of circa 13.75p in around 6 months) prior to the 20 million Euro EIB loan and the Lojuxta deal must have been primarily due to worries concerning future funding and share dilution via a placing to fund the phase 3 trial bearing in mind they didn't list with a lot of cash.

The interim figures will tell us a lot. It will show the Lojuxta sales growth (if any), how much cashflow is being generated by Lojuxta (the company stated in the RNS dated 30/3/17 that Lojuxta was "cash generative" from the very beginning) and the likely future cash burn. From that we should have a good idea of when the company will need to raise more cash and how much.

[greendragon777] 31/8/2017 12:48

Great insights Diamondstar, thanks for sharing!

T Minus 4 days......

[diamondstar1] 31/8/2017 12:29

Hi Paps, No, I have no affiliation with Aegerion. I did a bit of due diligence for investment decision making. These were the 2 main questions I was asking 1) Was it worth investing in Amryt medium – long term? 2) Was there value buying Amryt shares before the interim results are presented? For the first question, I based my valuation of Episalvan primarily on the value of Scioderm’s Zorblisa – valued at USD400 million (which is indeed a very conservative value, as Zorblisa is not FDA approved and is also in Ph III). My own personal PTS (probability of technical success) score for the EASE Trial is 65%. So the upside appears to be 10-fold, and downside will be limited to the multiples of revenue generated from sales of Lojuxta. To answer the second question, I looked at Lojuxta sales projections (10.5 million Euro) – and based on my background research, my conclusion was that this was achievable. In addition, the Amryt graph indicated that 20p (which previously acted as resistance) was likely to act as support, and I concluded that it was a good time to buy now. However, since buying some shares recently, I have been looking at Amryt’s cash burn rate – to understand when they are likely to require more funding. If Shard Capital figures are right (Pre-Tax Loss of 19 million for 2017) then it looks likely to me that they will require funding in early summer 2018. But if their Pre-Tax Loss for 2017 is close to their R&D spend of 11.5 million EU (and Lojuxta profits cover company expenditures), then they will only require funding after the Final EASE results are available in Q3 2018. The timing here is important, as Amryt will be able to raise funding on highly favourable terms, on the back of positive EASE final study results.

[greendragon777] 31/8/2017 11:09

A Nasdaq listing would be brilliant if they can achieve it. I had a look at the criteria of listing on the Nasdaq about a month ago.....it's pretty strict criteria so not sure AMYT will qualify for a while but hopefully they are getting the company 'Nasdaq Ready' in the meantime!

[papillon] 31/8/2017 10:51

"Is this to try put AMYT on the map in the US?"

Hope so, greendragon. Hopefully a prelude to a Nasdaq listing as mentioned by the company when it listed on AIM.

[papillon] 31/8/2017 10:42

"but is it now likely that an equity fund raise will be necessary BEFORE the Top-Line data is delivered from EASE?"

If you look at the broker reports on AMYT, going back to March, tightfist, they all stated that AMYT would need to raise further funds by early summer 2018, hopefully after the initial trial results are issued as promised so nothing has changed. Hence I think your comment is wrong.

We'll have to wait and see what the interim results bring. Cashflow from Lojuxta sales will be a key factor in when AMYT require extra funding.

EDIT: Company is keen on further licencing deals like Lojuxta (see yesterday's RNS) so perhaps they might not need to raise further funds next year via a placing? Be nice to see another "Lojuxta" type deal announced in 2017.
I must admit that the company is going about their business in the right manner in broadening their drugs portfolio and sourcing revenue streams so early after listing.

[papillon] 31/8/2017 10:35

I think we have to wait until we see the interim results, diamondstar. We will then see a full six months sales figures for Lojuxta and hopefully a new forecast for 2017 sales.

You seem to know a lot about Aegerion's past history with Lojuxta in the EU, diamondstar; were you associated with the company in some capacity?

[greendragon777] 31/8/2017 10:27

What do you make of this morning'p RNS announcement about the conference in New York?

Is this to try put AMYT on the map in the US?

[greendragon777] 31/8/2017 10:25

Only danger Tightfist is if the results are very positive (which hopefully they will be!) then you'll obviously pay a lot more for the shares. We'll see!

[tightfist] 31/8/2017 09:37

Yes, trading is very quiet on AMYT! I am looking to add but until I can get a little more insight into cash flow, the trajectory of Lojuxta sales and (most importantly) the pace and cumulative cash cost of EASE/AP101 I am sitting on my hands!I just don't want to average-down on yet another AIM dilutive cash-guzzler....... Reinvesting cash flow from Lojuxta was my original comfort blanket, but is it now likely that an equity fund raise will be necessary BEFORE the Top-Line data is delivered from EASE?All the best to all holders, tightfist

[diamondstar1] 30/8/2017 17:51

Hi Paps, I wonder if you could look at some financial figures for me related to estimated pre-tax profits (PTP) for Amryt for 2017, by a company called Hardman & Co Life Sciences:- This is the Shard Capital Note, page 1, hxxp://www.shardcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/AMRYT-Update-Shard-15-March-2017.pdf. This seems to assume that in 2017, the estimated Amryt sales are Euro 11 million and R&D investment Euro 11.5 million. Yet, the Pre-Tax Profit (or in this case Pre-Tax Loss) is estimated to be Euro 19 million for 2017. When I looked at Amryt Final Financial Report for 2016, it looks like they can achieve a gross profit of 55% from their sales, meaning that for sales of Euro 11 million for Lojuxta + Imlan, they should be able to achieve a gross profit of Euro 6 million. Meanwhile, their cost of running the company ie, total administrative, selling and marketing costs for 2016 was about Euro 6 million (again from 2016 financial report). Assuming that this is the same for 2017, effectively the profit from their sales of Lojuxta + Imlan should be able to offset the cost of running the company. Effectively, this should mean that the Pre-Tax Loss for 2017 should be around the amount of the R&D investment ie, circa Euro 11.5 million. There is a big difference between a Pre-tax loss of 19 million and 11.5 million! It would impact when they would need to raise funding. Question for you - do you have any thoughts on these financial estimates for 2017?

[greendragon777] 30/8/2017 15:37

The calm before the storm Paps.....😁

[papillon] 30/8/2017 15:07

Miniscule volume again today; as dead as a Dodo. Though latest trade is a 48,800 buy @ full asking price of 20.75p.

[greendragon777] 30/8/2017 12:46

Haha....that'll be the day! :-)

Forgot to mention that this morning, I saw it on Twitter. He would certainly prove his worth if he landed another Lojuxta type deal......if he did, we'd all be loading up more on AMYT even at 50p! haha

They do seem to be playing the long game which is good to see. Time will tell I guess if this guy is worth his metal!

Now we just need a nice tidy set of interim results next Monday and we can all get on with our lives! haha

[papillon] 30/8/2017 12:31

I thought Rooney had gone to Everton! LOL.

Nobody has yet commented on today's RNS. Looks to be good news to me. Looks like they want to do more Lojuxta type deals. AMYT is definitely turning itself into a pharma; another SHIRE in the making? It's good news!

Amryt Pharma PLC Senior Management Appointment

30/08/2017 7:00am
RNS Non-Regulatory

TIDMAMYT

Amryt Pharma PLC

30 August 2017

30 August 2017

AIM: AMYT

ESM: AYP

Amryt Pharma plc

("Amryt" or the "Company")

Amryt Appoints Kieran Rooney, Ph.D., as Vice President of Strategic Alliances and Licensing

Amryt Pharma, a biopharmaceutical company focused on best-in-class treatments for rare and orphan diseases, today announces the appointment of Kieran Rooney, Ph.D., as Vice President of Strategic Alliances and Licensing.

"I am pleased to welcome Kieran to our senior management team. In this new leadership role, Kieran will be responsible for assessing new acquisition and in-licencing opportunities as we continue to execute our strategy to acquire, develop and commercialise products to enhance the lives of patients with rare and orphan diseases" said Joe Wiley, CEO of Amryt. "We are excited to continue our buildout of critical leadership roles across the organization as we progress our broadening commercial stage pipeline to the benefit of patients with rare and orphan diseases."

Dr. Rooney has over 25 years of experience in the biopharmaceutical industry, with significant expertise in business development and commercial strategy. Before joining Amryt, he founded Halo BioConsulting, a global healthcare advisory services firm focusing on business alliances and management consulting. Prior to that, Dr. Rooney worked as a consultant for the UK Government and held business development roles at companies including Smith & Nephew, F2G Limited, Pharsight Corporation, and MDS Pharma Services.

Dr. Rooney holds a Ph.D. in Neuropharmacology from the University of Wales, Cardiff and is a Member of the Royal Pharmaceutical Society of Great Britain.

[greendragon777] 30/8/2017 12:24

Thanks for the insights Diamondstar, very informative. It defo wasn't me on the 50k buy by the way, I'm fully loaded at this point in time! 😊

I guess the big question for next year is if/when they need another sack of cash, will they raise equity and dilute us or will they increase their borrowing?

T Minus 5 days......