Amryt Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[papillon] 30/8/2017 11:24

They did borrow that 20 million Euros for the R&D, diamondstar, from the EIB. According to the RNS dated 30/3/17 they hadn't yet drawn down any of that 20 million Euros. Broker analysts reckoned they would need to raise more cash in early summer 2018. Good revenue from Lojuxta would mean they would need to raise less cash, or they could carry on for longer before raising more cash. Until we see the interim results next Monday we wont know by how much the Lojuxta sales are growing (if at all) and how much cash flow is being generated by those sales.

PS. I DEFINITELY would not invest around £10k in AMYT by buying 50k of shares, diamondstar. a) I haven't got that amount of cash available to gamble with and b) Once bitten twice shy! AIM shares are very, very, risky and AMYT is no exception.

[diamondstar1] 29/8/2017 23:13

When I saw the 50k buy today.... I thought it was either of you Paps or Greendragon making another investment.

Guys - about profitability. Amryt is spending on R&D. Their big cost is the EASE trial, which I estimate is costing them in the region of 15 million euro for a 164 patient study, split between 2017 and 2018. This means that whatever revenue they are generating on Lojuxta is being directed to R&D spend, and effectively reducing their cash burn rate.

I looks they have earmarked 2019 for FDA and EMA approvals... They will not be profitable until 2020, in my estimate (hence the need for the 20 million EU loan facility). But it will be interesting to see whether they are acquired before then.

[greendragon777] 29/8/2017 19:47

Haha....I wouldn't say that at all Paps. You should be getting paid by AMYT as an analyst! 😁

All looks very positive...take comfort in the fact that at least that 50k was a buy today and we're still a million miles away from 14p! Haha

[papillon] 29/8/2017 19:26

"Thanks for the insight Paps, you're a wealth of knowledge when it comes to AMYT"

You missed out a word, greendragon. You should have written "you're a wealth of USELESS knowledge when it comes to AMYT". LOL.

Currently when it comes to investor interest AMYT may as well be as dead as a Dodo! Just one, solitary, trade today. A fairly large buy of 50,000 @ 20.70p.

[papillon] 29/8/2017 18:15

Don't forget, greendragon, that during the first month of the acquisition (all of December fom the 2nd) AMYT recorded sales of 775,000 Euros. They wouldn't have achieved those sales if the sales and marketing apparatus for Lojuxta wasn't already in existence. Aegerion must have had that sales and marketing structure in place in what is now AMYT's licence area for Lojuxta. They must also have been selling Lojuxta in this area before AMYT acquired the licence. I can only assume that Novelion (who had only themselves acquired Aegerion) wanted to concentrate their efforts on the market areas (North America, South America and Japan) they knew best. It sounds like AMYT were in the right place at the right time to acquire the licence.

No, I don't think AMYT will make an overall profit in 2017. It looks like they will make a profit on Lojuxta and presumably if the Lojuxta sales figures are good enough for 2017 who knows?

Imlan appears have been thrown in as part of the deal to acquire Birken AG and only recorded sales of 571,000 Euros in the 8.5 months remaining of 2016 following the acquisition. No sales forecast was made for Imlan for 2017 so it doesn't appear to be that important to AMYT. It's on sale on Amazon for £83.10 if you're interested! LOL. 10 left in stock. You can get 50 mls for £22.85p. Don't think I'll bother! LOL



It seems to sell in Germany, but not over here.

Episalvan is already EU approved for treating PTW's, but there don't appear to have been any sales yet and no forecast has been made for sales in 2017.

[greendragon777] 29/8/2017 16:58

Thanks for the insight Paps, you're a wealth of knowledge when it comes to AMYT. I must have read it wrong. I understood the marketing costs were going to be huge for Lojuxta during the initial roll out period across Europe and beyond. I didn't realize they acquired an existing sales and marketing operation for Lojuxta.

Do you expect AMYT to make a profit overall in 2017? Again I understood that it won't be profitable until at least 2019/2020?

[papillon] 29/8/2017 16:25

In the Final Results RNS, dated 30/3/17, greendragon, it does state that Lojuxta was "CASH GENERATIVE" even during the first month of sales (December 2016), so it must have been profitable from the date of the acquisition of the licence (2/12/16). It looks like AMYT took over an existing sales and marketing operation for Lojuxta (Juxtapid) from Novelion, who had only just acquired it themselves when they took over Agerion. Hence I'm expecting Lojuxta to be positive for cashflow for AMYT during 2017.

[greendragon777] 29/8/2017 13:33

Interesting analysis Pappilon, thanks a mil for sharing. I think the marketing costs are going to be substantial for the first few years so hopefully investors will put the main focus on revenue growth with Lojuxta because it's not going to be profitable for quite some time.

That said, when they do roll it out and start to build solid sales it's going to be extremely valuable in itself. To me the whole Lojuxta deal is what makes AMYT a 'safe' bet in so far as if AP101 doesn't come right at least we can fall back on the Lojuxta deal to at least return our capital at some point down the line. It's nearly like a free play on the AP101 situation. And of course if AP101 comes right then we need to hire a few cash counting machines! hahaha

6 days and counting Paps......

[papillon] 28/8/2017 22:53

"Very encouragingly, since the year end, Amryt recorded sales of €1,859,000 in January and February. Based on this, we expect Lojuxta to generate revenues of approximately €10.5 million on an annualised basis."

The above is from the RNS dated 30/3/17. 6 x 1.859 million Euros = 11.16 million euros so the 10.5 million Euro forecast is very cautious especially as they expect growth in Lojuxta sales, but as Novelion recently found out the market punishes an share price if the revenue forecast is too optimistic and needs to be reduced!

Juxtapid had a 29% growth in sales in the 2nd Qtr compared to the 1st Qtr. If Lojuxta shows similar growth rates we could see sales for 2017 work out at circa 20 million Euros. Probably too much to hope for, but 15 million Euro of sales for Lojuxta seem achievable with more modest growth.

"The Lojuxta sales are for the period since the completion date on 2 December 2016 and totalled €775,000 in December." That's for 29 days (though it does include Xmas). Yet that increased to 1.859 million Euros for the following two months (total of 59 days). That's roughly growth of around 10%. That could give 2017 revenue around 16.5 million Euros.

Under the terms of the Licence agreement with Novelion ... "make royalty payments to Aegerion, paid quarterly, based on a percentage of net sales during a calendar year. The royalty percentage is 18% of net sales of the product less than US$15,000,000 and 20% of net sales more than US$15,000,000;

Hence if Lojuxta sales revenue for 2017 was 16.5 million Euros roughly 3.3 million Euros would go to Novelion. That would leave AMYT with revenue from Lojuxta of 13.2 million Euros assuming my 10% growth figure. Obviously there are the cost of sales and distribution to subtract from that figure so I've no idea of the likely profit margin, but I'm assuming it's on the high side. I'm assuming negligable manufacturing costs in relation to the figure AMYT will charge for each course of Lojuxta tablets (it's around US$17,000 for a 30 day course of Juxtapid in the USA. I have posted a link to that information in the past on this bb).

There are also future milestone payments to Novelion ... " make once-off commercial milestone payments, subject to achieving certain sales targets. A one-off milestone payment of US$1,000,000 is due the first time that aggregate net sales in a calendar year equals US$20,000,000 with a further one-off US$1,500,000 milestone payment due on reaching US$30,000,000 net sales in a calendar year"

[greendragon777] 26/8/2017 23:23

Ok great thanks a mil Paps for clarifying that. I like the sound of it heading towards 40p! haha

Just over a week to go now......fingers crossed! :-)

[papillon] 26/8/2017 22:03

Well it should (Hopefully!) bounce up off the support line (circa 20.25p), greendragon. The trend, going back to August 2016, is definitely up. The lower uptrend line is currently at around 18.5p whilst the upper uptrend line is not shown on my log chart, but I'd guess it's currently over 40p. Of course it's news that will ultimately determine the future trajectory of the AMYT sp, not it's historical price record.

[greendragon777] 26/8/2017 19:00

Thanks for posting Paps. So is the TA telling you it's pointing up or down? Forgive me but I can't read them! 😐

[papillon] 26/8/2017 18:12

I had a look at the AMYT chart on the investtech.com web site. The trend lines and support and resistance lines are "drawn" by a computer based on many, many, thousands of historical charts stored in the computers memory. The computer doesn't recognise my "double top" pattern so it probably has no validity; just a figment of my over active imagination!

I can't copy the chart and paste it here so I've transposed the trend & support lines onto the advfn chart. It's a log chart (all the charts on investtech.com are log charts) and the horizontal support line is shown by the arrow.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[gnnmartin] 25/8/2017 19:33

OK, I was wrong. Thanks for the correction.

[diamondstar1] 25/8/2017 18:10

Hi gnnmartin,

This is what is stated on page 3 of the Shard document on the Amryt EASE study:-

hxxp://www.amrytpharma.com/~/media/Files/A/Amryt-Pharma/documents/AMRYT-%20Update%20Shard%2015%20March%202017.pdf

"Half way through patient enrolment, an independent data monitoring committee will conduct an initial efficacy analysis, expected in Q1 2018, to decide whether to:-
- Continue the study unchanged
- Increase the number of patients to give adequate statistical power
- Discontinue the trial due to lack of efficacy"

Remember that 'half way through the trial' already means that they will have 82 (out of 164) patients enrolled - this means that they will have already a lot of data on the primary endpoint (which is the proportion of patients with complete wound healing at Day 45).

For example, at the interim, if the proportion of patients with complete wound healing at Day 45 in the episalvan arm is 20% and also 20% in the placebo arm - then I believe the clear decision is to stop the trial, due to lack of efficacy.

If the treatment difference is small eg, complete wound healing at Day 45 in the episalvan arm is 25% vs. 20% in the placebo arm, but this difference is not projected to meet statistical significance at the completion of the study, then they may decide to increase patient numbers.

However, if the treatment difference is sufficiently large eg, complete wound healing at Day 45 in the episalvan arm is 30% vs. 20% in the placebo arm, then they will continue the study unchanged.

This is my interpretation of the EASE study design, but I would appreciate any feedback from other members like Timbo.

[gnnmartin] 25/8/2017 17:23

Ref the interim review of the EB trial, I believe that trials are only stopped if they are showing signs of being worse than useless, ie suggesting the treatment may be harmful. If so, then the continuation of the trial does not imply that the treatment is effective.

Perhaps Timbo can comment, if he is reading this thread.

[greendragon777] 25/8/2017 17:10

Hi Alphabravo, great to see you are a committed AMYT investor too. All sounds very positive what Joe Wiley said to you when you bumped into him recently. I know a CEO of a company will say that anyway but I'm sure you made your own judgement call on him with his body language.

Totally agree with you that it's an obvious buyout once it get AP101 approval next year (fingers crossed). If you were to hazard a guess, what would you put the buyout price at assuming all the above comes good?

All quiet on the western front Paps but not for much longer hopefully. I have the popcorn out already and just counting down the days now! :-)

[papillon] 25/8/2017 16:56

Only 12 trades today, mostly for very small amounts. Sells going through at above mid price @ 20.39, hence being shown as buys on the financial web sites. Buys going through at 20.70p. Not a lot happening. Only 4 trading days next week and then, bingo! Then the interim RNS on Monday 4th September. What will it cause the share price to do I wonder?

[alphabravo321] 25/8/2017 12:21

Im here for the long haul too, topped up recently....these share price dips are irrelevant, this is an obvious target for a buyout in my opinion...time will tell...I dont expect many to believe this but I ran into Joe Wiley recently and although he didnt say much, he did say things are going very well in Amryt...i bought before he said this...!

[greendragon777] 25/8/2017 10:41

Good to see myself and Papillon aren't the only die hard AMYT shareholders around here! haha

That's the spirit Paps, demonstrating your commitment by a little topuporooney! :-)

Counting down the days now......come on AMYT, don't let us down!

[papillon] 25/8/2017 09:34

So am I, richpassi! LOL. Let's hope we are making the correct decision! We'll soon find out. Interims on September 4th. Hopefully we'll get a good update as well as good figures (for Lojuxta). As always it's a question of fingers crossed! As always if it's better than expected good news the share price spikes up; whilst worse than expected news and it drops like a stone! I'm hopeful we get the former, which is why I continue to hold.

I'm contemplating another small top up; maybe early next week?

[richpassi] 25/8/2017 09:22

I'm .......still .......here :)

[papillon] 24/8/2017 18:40

paleje. If you go to ShareProphets.com you will be able to see their previous buy recommendations for AMYT (though I didn't buy based on their tips) and contained in those articles are links to the previous broker analyses (Stiffel, Shore, etc)

[greendragon777] 24/8/2017 17:25

It sure is hard Paleje to get the timing right, like catching a falling knife as the old saying goes!

The way I look at this particular trade is that if AP101 doesn't prove it's efficacy then the trade is a complete disaster regardless of the price I bought in at. Equally however if it does get approval then it should turn out to be a 5 or 10 bagger and again the entry price (within reason of course) is almost irrelevant.

Anyway, as Papillon says, we will have to wait and see. It's gonna be interesting though that's for sure! :-)

Make sure you come back though around the 4th Paleje.....myself and Paps will be throwing a party here in celebration of the very positive interim results, ya can't miss that! haha