Amryt Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[greendragon777] 13/3/2018 13:10

I reckon the curiosity will get the better of you on Thursday morning Paps and you'll be wide eyed and bushy tailed come 7am! 😁

Me? I'll probably be still up from the night before! 😂😂😂

[papillon] 13/3/2018 12:45

Nothing happening! Oh well back to sleep until Thursday.

[greendragon777] 12/3/2018 19:25

It sure is Paps....I can only send proper smilies from my phone and I was on my laptop earlier. Lets hope it's all smiley faces come Thursday, otherwise you will be seeing a lot of these on here -----> :-(

60 hours and counting........

[papillon] 12/3/2018 18:32

"(except Paps, it could be lunchtime for him! haha)"

"You betcha"! :-) (not sure what this symbol means, greendragon, but presumably it represents a smile?)

[greendragon777] 12/3/2018 17:48

Just a few short days left for us to find out what this mysterious trading update is.

Could it be related to the AP101 interims?.....Maybe

Could it be related to AP102?.....Possibly but unlikely

Could it be related to Lojuxta sales?....Absolutely

Could it be related to Myalept?.....Possibly but less likely

Could it be something completely out of left field?.....You betcha


Only thing we can be certain of is we'll all know by Thursday morning (except Paps, it could be lunchtime for him! haha). No major movement in the share price ...is this the calm before the storm? :-)

[papillon] 12/3/2018 15:42

I think I'll go back to sleep and only bother to wake up on Thursday.

[papillon] 12/3/2018 12:12

"It wouldn't surprise me to see the AMYT share price re-test the 20.30p resistance this week, before Thursday's update"

Maybe NOT! LOL. Famous last words!

[papillon] 11/3/2018 23:19

MYALEPT

Generic Name: Metreleptin for injection.
Brand Name: Myalept



It wouldn't surprise me to see the AMYT share price re-test the 20.30p resistance this week, before Thursday's update, especially as there are still big buys going through. There was a 103,036 buy @ 19.40p on Friday, one of only 5 trades all day.

[papillon] 10/3/2018 17:12

Many thanks, toadhall, for your post 2413.

[toadhall1] 10/3/2018 16:29

Yes I'm hopeful they are going to tell us about substantially increased annualised sales in Lojuxta. Possible given the new distribution contracts at end of last year and continued market penetration in existing markets. But I like the suggestions about licensing new orphan drugs. That would be a great strategic move given the distribution channels and recent recruitment in place. And using relationships built with Novelion in particular.

[toadhall1] 10/3/2018 16:26

Myalept is the trademark for metreleptin. Metreleptin is the scientific name.The drug is approved for generalized lipodystrophy (GL) and not yet approved for partial lipodystrophy (PL). So they are applying the trademark to the approved GL usage and not yet to the PL usage.

[papillon] 10/3/2018 14:45

Bronxville
Posts: 129
Off Topic
Opinion: No Opinion
Price: 19.25
Analysts meeting Thursday afternoon Today 14:15 The reading to me is that they are trying to get more coverage in the market.
Could be wrong but they would hardly be having their first analyst's meeting to tell us bad news.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

The post above makes a lot of sense. I don't think the update on Thursday concerns the AP101 interim trial results. A TRADING update implies to me they are expecting to announce far higher forecast revenues for 2018 than 2017 and another license acquisition, similar to the Lojuxta deal, seems likely to me.

[papillon] 09/3/2018 22:49

Many thanks for your expert knowledge, diamondstar. I presume Novelion would carry on marketing and selling Myalept/Metreleptin in the Americas & Japan, but license them out to another company to market and sell in Europe, North Africa & the Middle East. Rather like already happens with Juxtapid/Lojuxta, diamondstar. It would make a lot of sense for Novelion to strike another licensing deal with AMYT because AMYT now have the agents lined up to sell Lojuxta in the areas inside it's license area, outside of the Americas & Japan, hence all the recent RNS's issued by AMYT about new agents.

I'm sorry to say I was a bit dismissive of your idea earlier today, but I'm now coming round to it. An update on the 15th March announcing such a licensing deal would make a lot of sense and would obviously generate a new revenue forecast from AMYT. It's likely that Myalept would be immediately cash generative for AMYT, like Lojuxta was.

I like your betting odds idea, pottermagic. I'm giving diamondstar's prognosis an ODDS ON price. It makes real sense to me.

PS. Novelion do make a distinction between Myalept and Metreleptin. Why is that? tia.

[diamondstar1] 09/3/2018 20:07

Hi Paps, Myalept and Metreleptin are the same product. Metreleptin is the scientific name for the synthetic leptin (a hormone) that Novelion produce. Whereas Myalept is the commercial brand name they use.
Metreleptin is in the process of being evaluated by the EMEA - they filed for Marketing Authorisation (MAA) in 2017 and should hear back very shortly whether they get EU approval. The drug is already approved in US.

I would say that Metreleptin could be easily taken up as a product by Amryt, as it is in the metabolic/endocrine space.

[greendragon777] 09/3/2018 19:08

But why put out a trading update with 2 weeks notice and not an RNS immediately?

Don't know how you'll be able to sleep through all this on Thursday Paps.....I'll probably still be up from the night before! hahaha

[papillon] 09/3/2018 18:30

"In addition to the workforce and other cost reductions, the Company is pursuing licensing opportunities for its zuretinol drug candidate designed to treat certain rare inherited forms of blindness, that predominately affect children, due, in part, to the aforementioned cash and capital structure challenges."

The above is from Novelion's press release dated Jan 24 2018 and titled "Novelion Therapeutics Announces Cost Reduction Plans and Capital Structure Review"

Could AMYT be interested? It appears to be up for grabs.

EDIT: ZURETINOL is a product of the original Novelion (pre Aegerion acquisition). It's currently in phase III (like AP101). It appears to be the only product in the Novelion pipeline still undergoing trials. It looks like Novelion, based on 24th January press release, cannot afford the cash to complete phase III for zuretinol. AMYT has cash. Assuming the analysts (writing before the September placing) were correct in that AMYT would run out of cash in the summer of 2018 that could mean AMYT has at least 15m Euro's of cash remaining (it may be more depending on improved cash flow from Lojuxta sales). Could an opportunity like zuretinol be why AMYT raised 13.3m Euro's in the September placing?

The Aegerion products include JUXTAPID (LOJUXTA) and MYALEPT. Both have been approved and are being sold. METRELEPTIN (which diamondstar mentioned earlier today appears to have completed phase III, but is awaiting approval.

[papillon] 09/3/2018 17:43

I've convinced myself, greendragon, that a TRADING update must relate to either buying, or selling (or maybe even both?). It is likely to relate to selling, IMO. Since LOJUXTA is currently the only product that AMYT sell, I'm expecting to hear a new revenue forecast for LOJUXTA on the 15th March. The TRADING could relate to AMYT generating revenue by SELLING AP101, but I doubt it, or it could relate to AMYT BUYING the license to another product already generating revenue, such as Novelion's MYALEFT, but again I'm doubtful.

I'm plumping for a TRADING update on LOJUXTA on the 15th March, greendragon, so I wont have to wake up @ 7am. Oh joy!

[greendragon777] 09/3/2018 16:45

"adjtptmdmttgm". I'm baffled by that word, greendragon! LMAO....isn't that one of the first words we are taught in school no? haha I use a T9 predictor on my phone Paps so when I have a case of 'fat fingers' it throws up some very interesting words indeed! :-) Think I meant to say 'significant change in sales'.....

Your's and Diamondstar's theory on a Lojuxta and MYALEPT could very well be right, makes complete sense. I'm not sure how wide ranging a 'trading update' can be and if it could cover any significant changes to AP101 etc. In fairness, if AP101 is a failure it could be potentially wipe out the company (although I think that's still very unlikely) so I guess you could some how put it under the umbrella of a trading update.

I'm loving all this speculation......it'll probably be something completely out of left field that none of us saw coming! haha

[papillon] 09/3/2018 15:25

I see AMYT have updated their web site. A big improvement.

Around 67% of the 274.8m shares in issue are held by major shareholders (those holding over 3% of the shares in issue). That only leaves around 90m shares (probably a lot less) in "free float"

[papillon] 09/3/2018 15:01

"adjtptmdmttgm". I'm baffled by that word, greendragon! LOL

I'm now convinced that a "TRADING UPDATE" can only refer to a revenue generating product and AMYT only have one revenue generating TRADING product and that's LOJUXTA. If AMYT were announcing on the 2nd March that the AP101 interim results were to be released on 15th March why not say so? That would make sense to me. They could have easily said the data was being independently assessed and the result would be issued on the 15th March. No, a TRADING update must apply to LOJUXTA. The only other TRADING that would apply is if they are TRADING AP101. The only way they could be currently TRADING AP101 is by SELLING it, rather like SCIODERM was bought by AMICUS so it could acquire ZORBLISA.

PS. diamondstar could have a point about the update concerning Novelion's MYALEPT. That's already selling; perhaps AMYT is acquiring the license as per LOJUXTA? Though why that deal would need a 2 week advance notice of it being signed is beyond me!!

However I'm almost 100% certain the TRADING update doesn't apply to the EASE interim trial results.

[greendragon777] 09/3/2018 14:34

Totally agree Paps.....that has me baffled too. But I can't see Lojuxta having any significant adjtptmdmttgm sales at this point in time so surely it's not related to that.

Hard to work it out but the guessing game will be over in less than a week! 😁

[papillon] 09/3/2018 14:34

Reading that 2nd March RNS again, in the accompanying blurb about the company, LOJUXTA is mentioned first, then AP101 and finally AP102.

The more I think about it the more I'm coming round to the 15th March TRADING update being about LOJUXTA and not AP101. The Final Results can't be being issued on the same date because last year there was an RNS issued on the 8th March 2017 giving advance notice of the Final Results to be announced on the 30th March 2017.

I suppose if the company can give a 3 week advance notice of the Final Results it can also give a 2 week advance notice of a TRADING update for LOJUXTA. Nothing to stop it doing so, especially if they are being audited.

PS. We should be getting an RNS giving advance notice of the 2017 Final results very soon.

[papillon] 09/3/2018 14:15

The only problem I have with the RNS dated 2nd March is that it specifically says it's a TRADING UPDATE. Why would it mention TRADING if it applies to the AP101 EASE interim trial results? After all the only TRADING asset AMYT has is LOJUXTA! AP101 is definitely NOT TRADING! Very strange. However if it's a LOJUXTA trading update why does it need to be announced 2 weeks before the update is released? Very strange indeed. Unless the TRADING update is to be announced at the same time as the Final Financial Results for 2017? They are due and have to be released before the end of the month. However in that case why was that not mentioned in the 2nd March RNS? Stranger and stranger!