Amino Technologies Share Discussion Threads

[ultimatewarrior] 10/2/2021 21:24

Not sure 100%

There’s clearly some big seller out there imho

[1pencil] 10/2/2021 21:16

Are you sure UW, what figures do you have?

[ultimatewarrior] 10/2/2021 20:28

Miton are clearly the big seller and have been for some time

[1pencil] 10/2/2021 19:56

Looking at the finncap note, they have an up to date shareholder list from RDIR.

Miton appear to have reduced a small amount while others have increased, could account for cap on share price which looks more institutional than retail.

I'll pop a list up over the weekend for comparison.

[sev22] 10/2/2021 18:52

Just to let everyone know that a recording of the presentation: AMINO TECHNOLOGIES PLC - Investor presentation relating to the full year results for the year ended 30 November 2020, along with responses to questions that were answered by the company is now available to review in the meeting archive on the Investor Meet Company web-site.

You will need to login in to view the recording and Q&A.

Should you have any questions, contact [e-mail].

I thought it was very interesting and informative. I intend to stay invested despite many PIs selling today and yesterday (herd mentality). I think the future looks bright for Amino.

[nhb001] 10/2/2021 14:53

I thought the presentation was very good. The sell off is strange. It's probably down to hot money looking for quicker returns elsewhere.

[ultimatewarrior] 10/2/2021 13:43

You only have to look at SDI to see what buy and build can do when done right

[1pencil] 10/2/2021 13:41

Excellent, I thought both Donald and Mark made a good investment case, good insight into the overall landscape which they are now well positioned to take advantage of 'sweet spot'.

Its not often you get such a complete investment picture over a couple of days, well written AR answered most of the remaining questions.

In summary, happy to hold but not expecting much until MA changes the dynamic.

it would be good to see directors back their confidence with share purchases.

[ultimatewarrior] 10/2/2021 13:25

What were your thoughts on the presentation 1pencil ?

[ultimatewarrior] 10/2/2021 11:50

you can ask them if you join via video is my understanding

[1pencil] 10/2/2021 11:24

Bit odd that you cannot submit questions after the results, I thought that was the whole idea.

Starts at 12

[football] 10/2/2021 08:36

Amino Technologies Posts Strong Performance, Recommends Dividend

[simon gordon] 09/2/2021 21:36

Nice to see AMO talk about Ikigai in the 2020 Annual Report. I presume that Kaizen percolates the organisation and culture if they're into Ikigai.

This isn't a bad intro to Kaizen and Ikigai as a way to goal setting:

How to Set Goals with Kaizen & Ikigai: A Japanese strategy-setting guide. Focus, Cure Procrastination, & Increase Personal Productivity.



Maybe the 2025 goal is to create a high performance culture steeped in Japanese philosophy?

[1pencil] 09/2/2021 16:15

Ultimatewarrior, (is this in reply to 119?) not comparing dividends year on year, only commentary from Dec TU:

"The Board expects to recommend a final dividend for FY20 under this policy at the lower end of the payout range alongside its full year results"

This is variable depending in investment capital requirements, i.e could indicate the need for cash acquisitions purposes.

[ultimatewarrior] 09/2/2021 15:27

comparing a full year dividend to what was a half year dividend in 2019 is a bit strange. Current dividend is only 25%-30% of 2018 dividend would be more illustrative

[1pencil] 09/2/2021 14:53

Simon, yup, their approach is sound and will undoubtedly add value for shareholders along the way, fair bit of cash on the books plus around $13m undrawn facility available, I think 24i also has borrowing if needed.

We may see BGF get involved at some stage to lend a helping hand, their portfolio has a number of sector related businesses and are known play an active supporting role, perhaps strengthen the board.

Its possible also the smaller than expected final dividend signals an acquisition is close at hand.

[simon gordon] 09/2/2021 14:43

1,

This is what was mentioned in the Fincap note re: acquisitions:

"CEO Donald McGarva noted that valuations for target companies have become more reasonable, and Amino represents a buyer with a positive trade reputation when compared to private equity potentially more brutalist approach. Management keep in touch with many businesses which represent potential targets, and tends to know them for a period of years before acquisition. Potential targets are reportedly increasingly receptive and “the pipeline for M&A has never been healthier”, with a target revenue range that extends from c.$10m-$50m, and vendor valuation expectations more realistic."

[1pencil] 09/2/2021 14:28

It would be good to see some director buying to show confidence, CFO especially.

Acquisition led strategy is fine and already earmarked with smaller reduced dividend payments, this is bound to be kept under wraps to some degree to avoid alerting competition.

Volume today is high given the small free float, it's possible we may get holdings TR1 up/down as to who is doing what.

Questions appear to be closed for tomorrows presentation or has the button moved?

[sphere25] 09/2/2021 12:59

Alot of selling on the results. Numbers are all in line, the outlook sounds confident and it looks like they are set to have a good go at the 2025 strategy.

Price has been disappointing with a narrow rangebound move. Threatened to breakout a few times but sellers kept coming in to prevent the move higher, often with streams of selling in a short period of time.

Revenue Forecasts:
2021 $83.2m
2022 $87.5m

Adj EPS Forecasts:
2021 12.9c
2022 15.1c

Dividend Forecasts:
2021 3.8c
2022 5.5c

Looking at 2022, multiples about fair here? It doesn't seem stretched on either side, but clearly the key is now the market's belief in the 2025 strategy. A good acquisition will naturally cause a re-rating but I'd be watching for some larger buying here at some point to suggest that the market does have confidence in the 2025 strategy.

IF the market really gets behind that, then AMO could represent real value down at these levels. We have an organic and acquisition lead strategy here but the bulk of these acquisitions do go wrong so I guess it is a wait and see. That said, we have seen the likes of JDG and SDI adopt a buy and build very well and the market has rewarded them with handsome re-ratings.

Over to AMO to make the market have confidence in the 2025 strategy and therefore begin to price it in.

All imo
DYOR

[18bt] 09/2/2021 11:29

There's another interesting note IMHO, which is Note 14, which is the one which justifies no write down in purchased goodwill. That includes the assumptions which they have used which includes:
- an annual revenue growth rate of 18-20% in 24i revenues
- a 5% increase in 24i gross margins by year 2 and no further thereafter
- a 9% growth in Amino's revenue in Year 1, 0% in Years 2 & 3 and a decline of 4% pa from year 4. They have also got a decline in margins and a terminal decline of 4% pa from Year 6.
Those assumptions together with some downside stress-testing justify the goodwill on the balance sheet and I have no problem with that.
The interesting thing is just how much that changes the business in the next few years into a software business.

[ultimatewarrior] 09/2/2021 11:13

Does the small bonus mean that internal targets were not met in the fy Excellent question for the investor relations presentationGood stuff is usually well hidden in accounts

[18bt] 09/2/2021 11:10

Have now got to the Remuneration page of the accounts - which is v interesting. The CEO and CFO were only paid bonuses of $7,500 each in 2020 compared to c$230k in 2019. OK, they have been granted some NIL cost options during the year under a LTIP, but this superceded the old scheme:
"Long Term Incentive Plan 2016 (“LTIP 2016”) This LTIP 2016 was introduced in August 2016 to provide an effective mechanism for senior executives to participate in the Company’s equity, aligning their interests with those of shareholders. The LTIP was implemented via a subscription for shares in a subsidiary, Amino Holdings Limited (“AHL”). The performance criteria for the scheme were not met and accordingly the scheme was wound up in May 2020."

And also this "In addition to the LTIP 2019, these three Executive Directors benefitted from a special bonus scheme which would pay out, in the event of a change of control, a sum linked to the growth in share price since July 2019, subject to an initial uplift requirement, payable in cash or shares at the Remuneration Committee’s discretion".

So the annual bonus payments seem to tell us that internal targets weren't met, whatever the front end says.

[simon gordon] 09/2/2021 11:03

Be interesting to see over the coming weeks whether AMO can attract more big and slow money to buy into the story. For fast money, today was not juicy enough and the iceberg is melting again.

[ultimatewarrior] 09/2/2021 10:28

Not short, a little disappointed If you look around a couple have referred to the results as underwhelming. Think it's time for me to go back to sleep for a while. Good luck all