Aminex Share Discussion Threads

[stinkypeet] 12/6/2018 22:33

But it will be as soon as the development license is signed as the assets will then be 2P reserves not 2C resources.... at least a lot of that figure will - circumstances a 800 BCF.

[ronwilkes123] 12/6/2018 22:19

It's not relevant to the share price that's why. If the number was so good from the cpr why has the company's market cap lost 50million in the period since ?

[blackgold00] 12/6/2018 22:04

ron, "Still no news Pathetic bod with only a cpr to show for a years efforts"

that is, a cpr with "Ntorya Pmean GIIP: increased to 1.87 TCF" so ron why so negative ?

[blackgold00] 12/6/2018 21:58

peter, that's how i'm seeing it

[blackgold00] 12/6/2018 21:57

yes, i wouldn't disagree with that ngms.

[ngms27] 12/6/2018 18:03

I would argue that they haven't yet established the boundaries of the discovery so it would be premature to issue a development licence.Therefor I would insist on another well and interpretation first.

[ronwilkes123] 12/6/2018 17:00

I'm right againStill no newsPathetic bod with only a cpr to show for a years efforts

[greyingsurfer] 12/6/2018 16:33

If the Tanzanian Govt are effectively saying "we are not going to grant the Development license without your first drilling C1"

I'm not sure they could do that. Clearly I, and I'll assume no one else here, knows the detail of the appraisal licence, but I would have thought it was pretty much a given that if you have an appraisal licence and you prove up a commercial resource you have a right to a development licence. Clearly there is potential room for negotiation about exactly what area it covers and other details (so some room for TPDC etc to look for some control over the timing and preconditions), but I would assume the essential right to a development licence should be pretty clear.

Peter

[stinkypeet] 12/6/2018 16:03

Only time will tell BG. Let's wait and see how the cookie crumbles..... You know my view and I am very familiar with yours.

[blackgold00] 12/6/2018 15:55

stinkypeet, its all negotiable.

Model Production Sharing Agreement (MPSA)
Tanzania's Model PSA serves as the basic document for negotiations between foreign oil companies, the Government and TPDC. It sets out the terms under which exploration and production can take place. Although the terms - which are internationally competitive -mirror closely those incorporated in earlier PSA's concluded in Tanzania, the Government's flexible approach allows for the negotiation of the important issues (such as Area, Work Program and Economic terms etc.) within the framework of production sharing arrangements.

[stinkypeet] 12/6/2018 15:48

Sorry hadn't finished...

If the Tanzanian Govt are effectively saying "we are not going to grant the Development license without your first drilling C1", Eclipse have no guarantees that they will ever get a route to market for their heavy investment. On the other hand the Tanz's could say we will grant you the development License on the basis that even if C1 fails, the Ntorya Partners have to drill a replacement to justify the proposed EPS solution.

[blackgold00] 12/6/2018 15:46

@Do you think that Eclipse would willingly risking paying a huge sum to Farm-Out, drill C1, for C1 to "fail" and then the Tanzanian Govt not to sign a Ntorya Development license?@

stinkypeet, going by your train of thought, then why did the Eclipse buy into 30% of Aminex to drill the NT-2 well? it was on the legal bases of the Mtwara PSA licence which gives the legal right to apply and pursue the development licence

[stinkypeet] 12/6/2018 15:42

But you are missing the point BG; the PSA with a Development license looks a lot, lot different to a PSA without one.... Not least in the "valuation" of the underlying assets.

[blackgold00] 12/6/2018 15:34

"Until the License is signed it cannot be farmed -out?"

yes agree, but we're talking about the Mtwara PSA licence which can come at any time and will give the Zubs the legitimate document for them to farm into. not a development licence

Model Production Sharing Agreement (MPSA)

hxxp://www.tpdc.co.tz/legalservice.php

"Tanzania's Model PSA serves as the basic document for negotiations between foreign oil companies, the Government and TPDC. It sets out the terms under which exploration and production can take place"

[stinkypeet] 12/6/2018 15:32

Well whatever it might be if I were considering Farming In to anything I would want to know exactly what was involved, the costs, timescales, obligations and what the anticipated return on my investment was going to be..... Therefore it suggests to me that all of these various deliverables are intertwined and inseparable.

Do you think that Eclipse would willingly risking paying a huge sum to Farm-Out, drill C1, for C1 to "fail" and then the Tanzanian Govt not to sign a Ntorya Development license? If they do they certainly won't be paying much for it. They would have had to pay for the Farm-In, contributed towards the C1 drill, end up without a Development license, owning an asset that has virtually zero Commercial value and with no route to market. At least with the Development license in place if C1 were to fail they know that the TPDC has committed to an EPS even if that requires them to find a replacement for the failed C1 drill.

[blackgold00] 12/6/2018 15:14

i do wonder whether the development licence will be granted in two phases one for the EPS and the final phase for the full field development.

[stinkypeet] 12/6/2018 14:59

Yes, exactly BG, how can they negotiate for a Farm -Out for something that does not yet officially exist? Until the License is signed it cannot be farmed -out?

[blackgold00] 12/6/2018 14:48

"The Company continues to be in advanced discussions for a farm-out transaction at Ruvuma, including the Ntorya appraisal area, with an affiliate of the Zubair Corporation, as announced on 21 March 2018."



prilims
"Aminex has been reviewing different funding options and is currently working on a farm-out of part of the Group's interest in the Ruvuma PSA to an affiliate of the Zubair Corporation, as previously announced"

[stinkypeet] 12/6/2018 14:35

Yes GS and BG the C! contingency does make sense but then so too dos the idea that a Farm-Out that does not take in to count the Development License approval is a Farm-Out of what exactly? THe Ntorya Development license area will be a separate License. And will that mean that Eclipse will sign a second Farm - Out for Ntorya? Outside of Ntorya the Ruvuma asest ahve next to no value so why, oh, why would they be Framing Out ahead of that?

[greyingsurfer] 12/6/2018 14:25

The further complication, which may have something to do with the issue of whether C-1 would be covered by a development licence based on the appraisal area, or under the wider exploration licence is this:

The Appraisal Licence is
granted for a period of two years with options to extend at the discretion of the Minister for Energy & Minerals
Dated 8th July 2013. Does anyone remember any details of an extension (which presumably occurred) - I don't
.

So the appraisal licence itself may need renegotiation by now, and C-1 could presumably not be drilled under that licence without agreement.

Regarding:
The Company expects to receive an extension to the Mtwara Licence, possibly until January 2020, during which time the development licence for Ntorya is expected to be finalised.

I'm not assuming that means the development licence will not be signed to 2020 - clearly, any time within the existence of the extended Mtwara licence (once it does!) qualifies. However, I can see the argument that an FDP including C-1 results makes sense, and that the sort of gas demand an FDP of Ntorya could meet isn't going to be there till 2020 or after, so TPDC may not feel any need to rush on it.

Which brings us back to the point - the key issue now is the Mtwara extension, Lindi would be good too of course, and it would not surprise if both came together, but the key to moving forward in the short term is the Mtwara one.

Peter

[blackgold00] 12/6/2018 14:10

"The Company expects to receive an extension to the Mtwara Licence during which time the development licence for Ntorya is expected to be finalised." What time?

no to me that does not make sense and is confusing and unhelpful in what they are trying to say.

the first statement ("The Company expects to receive an extension to the Mtwara Licence") is fine in its self but it gives no indication to the (period of time) that the second part of the statement is referring to and highlighting, ("during which time the development licence for Ntorya is expected to be finalised.") What time?

so i'm sticking to what i believe to be the obvious interpretation of that sentence which then becomes informative and clear.

"The Company expects to receive an extension to the Mtwara Licence, possibly until January 2020, during which time the development licence for Ntorya is expected to be finalised."

the last time we had an Mtwara Licence extension it was just for a year this time it could be for a little longer

[stinkypeet] 12/6/2018 13:05

"The Company expects to receive an extension to the Mtwara Licence, possibly until January 2020, during which time the development licence for Ntorya is expected to be finalised."

If you interpret this statement as the both of you do it would mean that AEX would only receive the License to develope Ntorya shortly before or at the same time as the License is about to expire.....! Also BG you have suggested that the recent approval to conduct 3D seismics for the Ruvuma area ("concentrating on Ntorya")must be a prelude to further activity in the area. Well this is unlikely if we are not going to get the Development license approvals until 2020.

No, as I have suggested previously the inclusion of the phrase "possibly until January 2020" relates purely to the License Extension. The section of the statement "during which time the development licence for Ntorya is expected to be finalised." relates, in my view to the initial statement " "The Company expects to receive an extension to the Mtwara Licence"

So the statement could read ""The Company expects to receive an extension to the Mtwara Licence during which time the development licence for Ntorya is expected to be finalised."

Ultimately only time will tell.

Irrespective of the above I do think we will get news on the KN1 remediation and outcome of the C1 tender process before or probably during the AGM.....

[blackgold00] 12/6/2018 13:04

stinkypeet, its all in the title, PSA Production Sharing Agreement, its from this document that the development licence will emerge, as Aminex has stated "The Ntorya gas project is a component of the Ruvuma PSA" in the Competent Persons Report 05 February 2018.



PETROLEUM (Exploration and Production) Act, 1980

"Petroleum exploration and development in Tanzania is governed by the Petroleum (Exploration and Production) Act 1980. This Act vests title to petroleum deposits within Tanzania in the State and is designed to create a favorable legal environment for exploration by oil companies. The Act expressly permits the Government to enter into a petroleum agreement under which an oil company may be granted exclusive rights to explore for and produce petroleum."

Model Production Sharing Agreement (MPSA)

"Tanzania's Model PSA serves as the basic document for negotiations between foreign oil companies, the Government and TPDC. It sets out the terms under which exploration and production can take place"

[stinkypeet] 12/6/2018 12:48

BG and GS yes indeed I agree with much that you say but just to mention that I recall the BoD stating at the time of the Dev License application that the Ntorya Development License would be "carved out" of the Ruvuma PSA (when we had one). Additionally I also remember quite clearly JB stating in an interview in Q4 2017 that the, then NT3, drill was not officially dependent on the License extensions - that they could still continue to drill without it. I remember because at the time, to me, that seemed unrealistic....

Moreover and as has been alluded to by you the Farm-Out of Ruvuma cannot take place until there is a License for Eclipse to farm in to..... but if as you suggest GS the 25 yr Development License is approved well after the License Extensions, the Farm Out will have to be agreed on for the "basic" Appraisal license only - how can a Farm-Out be agreed for a 25 yr Development License that has yet to be approved or indeed terms (valuations) agreed for something that is not guaranteed?

Hence my view that the these two Licenses will follow in quick succession and the Farm Out only after that... though when that will be I would not be confident of suggesting. For the AGM? As I have long maintained unlikely (50:50 at best) but I do not think they will be too much longer.....

[greyingsurfer] 12/6/2018 12:09

Ntorya 3 is not dependent on a 25 year development licence

but it is dependent on the Mtwara PSA Licence extension

I was puzzled by that statement at the time. Since N-3/C-1 is within the appraisal licence, and my assumption had been that the development licence would be based on the boundaries of the appraisal licence, and so would include C-1. However, it appears the development licence will not be finalised for a while, and the rest of the licence will (at least in part) revert to the Mtwara explo licence.

Making things more complicated is the other quote:

The Company expects to receive an extension to the Mtwara Licence, possibly until January 2020, during which time the development licence for Ntorya is expected to be finalised.

which implies that C-1 may be drilled (on the extended Mtwara explo licence) before the development licence is finalised. There is some sense in that, it clearly makes sense to have an FDP that includes the input from C-1, but it does mean that licence negotiations for Ntorya are going to be going on for some time yet!

As you say, though, BG, the Mtwara extension (plus other news perhaps) could appear at any time. It's no surprise to see the share price slide a bit in the interim, but it will be a big shift in the immediate prospects and visibility for company when it comes, and that is likely to be reflected fairly sharply in the share price

Peter