Aminex Share Discussion Threads

[shabbadabbadoo2] 06/2/2018 16:34

Agree Haggis. That’s why I don’t see NT-3 being drilled any time soon. Year end spud at best. They will get KN-1 up to max income and run it to death. If KN-1 is terminal, then it will be dilution.

[haggismchaggis] 06/2/2018 16:33

Also, AEX partners could pay for and install CNG plus gas to power at Ntorya, buying the gas directly from AEX, then selling the CNG and power.AEX is a gas producer, it has no desire IMO to get involved in CNG and power itself, it is just putting forward the option so a market is created for its gas.

[haggismchaggis] 06/2/2018 16:26

Can't see Jay diluting his own holding by that much, he would rather spend cash getting KN-1 back up to spec, then get project funding for N3 based on the KN-1 revenues, whilst the TPDC back in, and the TPDC pay for the Ntorya to Madimba pipeline.

[blackgold00] 06/2/2018 15:23

bun, "Just maximise the old returns for us skint shareholders by no dilution please"

sorry bun, no can do, at lest not from the revenue from KN-1. so yes brace your self, could they get a placing away at 3p? whats that, an extra billion shares in issue to raise $41 million? i think i would be happy with that, knowing development is funded.

[chesty1] 06/2/2018 13:26

Falia has moved on then lol not posting every 50 seconds!

[bunbooster2] 06/2/2018 12:25

Yes, Blackgullible... sorry I mean Blackgold. I do think it will be a good return on investment. Just maximise the old returns for us skint shareholders by no dilution please. Let's face it though better get in position. We're bracing for a placing. After a while you start to enjoy it. :) :| :| :) :|

[greyingsurfer] 06/2/2018 11:49

what would be the cost of the EPS aprox?

Approximate well costs: NT-3, Dry hole cost : $11MM (gross),Testing: $4MM (gross)

some remediation work at NT1 and NT2 = ? $5MM

8" pipeline to Madimba gas plant 33km or 20.5 miles? $ 6MM

EPS total gross estimated cost $26-$30MM ? plus inflation?

Sounds plausible. But hard to judge. Mobilisation costs, and time, for the rig are likely to be large.

I'd also hope, and expect, that given the mobilisation issues they would plan to drill additional wells while it's there. That will require more cash - before Ntorya starts paying its way. An equity raise seems likely. In a sensible market they have the basis for a decent placing. If they can drill N-3 and get a decent result that becomes even stronger, but I doubt they would drill that without sorting financing for at least the rest of the EPS first.

Peter

[blackgold00] 06/2/2018 10:52

bun "Yes, it's going to cost a lot Blackgold."

well bun that depends on the return of the investment, ie how much the EPS will produce, so it might be the case, with regard to value for money, it doesn't cost a lot at all and will be seen as a good investment opportunity whether by a placing with its share dilution or buy a suitable loan arrangement or even a farm-in. do you not agree bun. : )

[bunbooster2] 06/2/2018 10:31

Yes, it's going to cost a lot Blackgold. Hopefully that can be done without dilution.

[blackgold00] 06/2/2018 10:28

i wonder what sort of future share price targets and values the group of the sell-side analysts will put on Aminex after the presentation yesterday.

[butchdogg] 06/2/2018 09:50

back ground buyer sat on bid all morning absorbing loose stock imo, if that continues throughout the morning, might see a squeeze higher.

[blackgold00] 06/2/2018 09:44

what would be the cost of the EPS aprox?

Approximate well costs: NT-3, Dry hole cost : $11MM (gross),Testing: $4MM (gross)

some remediation work at NT1 and NT2 = ? $5MM

8" pipeline to Madimba gas plant 33km or 20.5 miles? $ 6MM

EPS total gross estimated cost $26-$30MM ? plus inflation?

an example from sari energy is for a 12" pipe-line where as our EPS will be using an 8" pipe-line.


-"The cost per mile increases with pipe size
"construction on land using a 12 inch pipeline cost about $300.000 per mile

hxxps://sari-energy.org/oldsite/PageFiles/What_We_Do/activities/GEMTP/CEE_NATURAL_GAS_VALUE_CHAIN.pdf

[blackgold00] 06/2/2018 08:17

rony you're back, what did you think of yesterdays CPR upgrade

[ronwilkes123] 06/2/2018 08:15

Margin, some will be forced to sell here due to margin calls, though they will never admit it on here

[888icb] 06/2/2018 08:12

Everything has been marked down on opening but no reason why AEX should suffer unduly. It certainly didn’t rise with the market in recent months.

[haideralifool] 06/2/2018 08:11

This is when the best bargains are to be had. May need to be a bit patient though, because it could go on for longer than expected.

[blackgold00] 06/2/2018 08:06

oh dear, end of the world again

[haggismchaggis] 06/2/2018 06:47

Bun, you're having a laugh again. Jay in his video and in the RNS indicates that he is looking at monetisation of assets much much faster than that, so he has a plan as stated in the RNS, which he will no doubt reveal once things fall into place.

Also note that SOLO are pushing for the N3 well in their RNS.

"In addition, the Company is very encouraged by io's study, which indicates, based on reasonable assumptions, that Ntorya could be developed with three wells, two of which have already been drilled and tested.

The io study indicates that an early production system, which will limit upfront capital expenditure and enable cash-flow funded further development, is a realistic and achievable proposition.  Further detail of the development plan will be made available in due course."

"As the KNDL does not expire until 2036, the Company is conducting technical work to assess the feasibility of further drilling in this area. 

Successful wells could be brought onstream into the  Songo Songo gas plant, providing enhanced revenues for the Company and its partners."

From SOLO:
"we are now confident that Ntorya can be economically produced with limited further major capital expenditure."

"This gives us line of sight to additional revenues and strengthens our ability to monetise our interest at the appropriate time." 

"We now look forward to the confirmation that a rig has been secured for the drilling of appraisal well Ntorya-3, and to continued progress on the award of a 25-year development licence for the field.""

[bunbooster2] 06/2/2018 02:39

So spending wise looking at something like 75% of 15 million for the drill plus 30 million for EPS plus cost of any further drilling at Kiliwani. If they could do that without dilution, and see it through to monetisation, that would be gallus.

Wonder when an EPS could realistically be up and running. There's not going to drill till second half 2018. So mid 2019 but more realistically, given the nature of things, 2020?

[888icb] 05/2/2018 20:37

Malcy is very impressed with today’s report and upgrade which he says should lead to an exciting run for shareholders. He says the shares should at least head back to the highs of a year ago which means at least 7p.

[greyingsurfer] 05/2/2018 20:04

I agree with that BG. The io EPS scheme sounds pretty sensible to me. There isn't currently gas demand for an FFD. But an EPS coming on stream in 18-24 months or so makes sense and fits in with likely demand. And can be expanded to an FFD as cash flow comes in and demand builds up. Probably not worth putting cash/time and effort into smaller local schemes. Regarding Caroil-2 I suspect it might be able to drill a new KN well. But it's clearly not in a great state, barely up to the job and unused for a while. Since they have to mobilise a better rig anyway for N3 it makes sense I guess to wait for that and be able to drill more efficiently. It also gives them time to get the prospects drill ready - which they clearly aren't yet. Good news for AEX today, though we'll have to wait a bit longer for good cash flows!Peter

[shabbadabbadoo2] 05/2/2018 19:35

It’s strange isn’t it that the Caroil rig has never been mentioned when that is probably the easiest and best solution to KN-1. I said on here many months ago that they could part drill a well for NT-3with it while waiting for a more powerful rig to come in and finish the deeper part.

I guess the rig is dead. It was described a decade ago as a heap of junk, so by now it must be a heap of rusty junk.

I reckon they will drill NT-3 then do a fundraising on the back of the result.