Aminex Share Discussion Threads

[skinwalker] 07/8/2017 12:12

Interestingly, big stones fall no faster than small stones.

[bunbooster2] 07/8/2017 11:45

Dropping like a big stone. Any rumours doing the rounds?

[skinwalker] 07/8/2017 11:31

Well leafless, it seems the market is not as excited as you about the Uganda pipeline and the Somanga power plant!

[leafless] 07/8/2017 08:14

The new plant will be "near or at" the same location as an existing much smaller plant which is hooked up to Songo Songo! See info here

So this is also huge news for Aminex! It also may well explain why Aminex has just announced that we are looking for new drilling targets around Songo Songo...it all links up.

A big power station (bigger than Kinyerezi) is going to be built on our doorstep and construction was put out to tender only 7 weeks ago :-)

It get better and better!

Good night all. Exciting times ahead

[leafless] 07/8/2017 08:14

There has been a fair bit in the news recently about the Kinyerezi power plants and obviously this weekend the gas pipeline to Uganda has been announced. I’ve been wondering what big development is likely to hit the news next. I’ve done some digging to find out what other plans there are to increase gas fired power production and it looks like the Somanga Fungu power plant is the next in line after the Kinyerezi projects.

As a recap, Kinyerezi II plant will go live from this December. Initially 30MW will be switched on. Then an additional 30MW will be added to the national grid on a monthly basis until it reaches its 240MW capacity – so this will mean an increase in demand for gas every month from Dec 2017 through to July 2018. Back on 10th July I posted some calcs which show that this will result in an additional demand for gas of 31.36mmcfd. Also in 2018 we will see the upgrade to Kinyerezi I and I calculated that this should result in an additional demand of 23.71mmcfd.

Looking at Somanga Fungu, it will be a 320MW plant. Based upon the figures for Kinyerezi, this will result in additional demand for gas of approx. 42 mmcfd. This article from last year says that American firm K&M advisors had been appointed to manage “site selection, set technical and functional specifications, develop the financial model, prepare prequalification documents and the request for proposals”: hxxps://www.esi-africa.com/news/tanzania-tanesco-appoints-km-advisors/

The article was from July 2016 their assignment was to last 18 months – to approx. Jan 2018. You can see from this link, the project was put out to tender last month and it confirms the 320MW figure I used above: hxxp://www.tendersinfo.com/projects_details/39091870?desc=Somanga-Fungu-320mw-Gas-Fired-Power-Plant

So expect news soon regarding a deal for the construction of Somanga Fungu. Obviously Tanzania has a target of tripling power output by the year 2020. It would be feasible to build the power plant in 2 to 3 years, so it looks like Somanga Fungu is the next big power plant project and it is likely to be ready some time in 2020 – within about 18 months of Kinyerezi II being fully operational.

With the gas pipeline to Uganda likely to be finished in a similar timeframe, you can see that there are tangible plans that will see demand for increase very dramatically over the next 28 to 36 months.

[foolsandcows] 06/8/2017 21:28

No RNS Monday. Irish bank holiday.

[haggismchaggis] 06/8/2017 19:36

The oil pipeline already has its own WiKi page.

[haggismchaggis] 06/8/2017 19:07

10p is quite possible, it all comes down to sentiment for the stock, and the "I can't miss the boat on this stock" often leads to share prices that long term holders don't understand, because they base their valuations on assets, income, etc, but not on an overly active market sentiment based on the blue sky potential, such as a potential big oil find, or huge gas sales to Uganda.

[kryptonsnake] 06/8/2017 16:38

LSE are planning the 10p party again. Anyone think 10p is achievable this year? Personally I think it might take a successful N3 drill to see us at 10p or above...

[qackers] 06/8/2017 09:55

With thanks to Leaflessclover over on the LSE southeast site.

"Mr Museveni said Uganda has discovered a huge chunk of iron ore reserve, but could not mine the resource due to lack of coal or gas for smelting. Speaking at Chongoleani Village here during the ceremony to lay the foundation stone for the mega 1,445km crude-oil pipeline, Dr Magufuli assured his guest that Tanzania will use the same route to supply gas to Uganda".

"“Uganda needs natural gas to revive her industries and thus we will use the same route to have another pipeline to sell the energy to Uganda,” President Magufuli said during the colourful ceremony".

Link to article: hxxp://www.dailynews.co.tz/index.php/home-news/52183-dar-kampala-walk-the-talk

Check out Drewky's excellent 'unofficial' Aminex website for all of your Aminex information needs hxxps://aminexunofficial.blogspot.com/

[warbaby43] 06/8/2017 08:28

"Now let's see, where shall we invest our $30bn+ - Texas, Australia or Tanzania?"

[cervelo] 06/8/2017 08:00

Just woke from a dream in which AEX took a percentage of Horse Hill from SOLO in exchange for a free carry on NT3. What a sad thing to dream about on a lovely Sunday morning.

[haggismchaggis] 05/8/2017 13:51

That's why I already have him on filter, DUH!

[cpap man] 05/8/2017 09:21

If you ever look at small cap oil & gas companies maybe take a close look at recently [Monday] fully listed [standard] United Oil & Gas [UOG]

UOG are headed up by 2 ex Tullow Oil [TLW] boys Brian Larkin and Dr. Jonathan Leather

MKT CAP is £6M with over half of that being in cash....UOG have 2 drills planned in the next 4 to 6 months with the 1st drill in October

Obviously with their TLW connections the boys have some massive plans to take the UOG share price from pennies to £ pounds £

[greyingsurfer] 05/8/2017 09:14

Certainly saw the AGM reports around 64129 etc, greyingsurfer, and what they can't afford is a repeat of N-2. But, as usual, you name the stake and this time I'll even give you odds - 2/1 shall we say.:-)No, I'm not betting on this one!I presume the determining factors in drilling this year or not will be 1) do they want to use a bigger drill and 2) do they want to move the drill pad? Both of those will follow from the updated basin model. So for now we'll just have to wait and see.Complicating those decisions there are going to be ongoing discussions with TPDC about modifying the licence obligations.Peter

[foolsandcows] 04/8/2017 20:37

Have Aaron Leblanc and Brian Cassidy loaded up yet? ;)

[haggismchaggis] 04/8/2017 19:49

3D probably wasn't on the cards for Ntorya gas because 2D was producing hits despite the clear inaccuracies, but early last year Mike Rego and friends (NR included?) decided to search for the oil that had appeared in many spots in East Africa, as ground level shows on Nyuni etc, or as drilling shows. Once Mike Rego and friends had decided where and how much oil was "sloshing around" East Africa, they waited on the result of N2, which then had an 'oil rim', from that point on N3 became a target for 3D seismic. The decision on 3D is nothing much to do with hitting gas and everything to do with hitting oil.

[warbaby43] 04/8/2017 17:33

Certainly saw the AGM reports around 64129 etc, greyingsurfer, and what they can't afford is a repeat of N-2. But, as usual, you name the stake and this time I'll even give you odds - 2/1 shall we say.

Yeah, so far as 3D is concerned I recall Marben's report of the 2012 AGM at which Rego indicated to him that the topography and the local farming activity militated against 3D. Puzzling, though, that Ritson should be mentioning it so persistently - did it raise its head at the recent Solo AGM, I wonder.

[shabbadabbadoo2] 04/8/2017 17:13

I've said it before on here, but I don't think they are in any hurry to drill. As long as the income keeps coming in they can wait out any Government shenanigans and let them blink first. Hence that's why they are focusing on getting the KN-1 well into tip top shape. The pipeline isn't going to fill itself, so by waiting this adds pressure on the Gov side to move along other things - like license applications and making sure payment is received.

The added advantage of waiting is that each month AEX has another million bucks in the bank, reducing the need for fundraising in the future, should this be needed.

I've been a holder for about 12 years. A few more won't be a problem!

[haideralifool] 04/8/2017 17:06

A higher share price can come at the cost of this board's sense of community. So not sure how attractive that is.

[greyingsurfer] 04/8/2017 17:01

Not sure why you assume no N-3 in 2017 - have you seen something? I'm not saying that couldn't be right, but there are 5 months left, and until we get clear plans I can't see how we can know.

It's certainly possible that there might be more seismic pre drill, if they think the model justifies it, and they think tweaking the N3 site might be worth it.

I remain unconvinced they will go for 3D though, the only one who seems to have suggested it is Ritson and he is neither an expert or in the loop. On land 3D is expensive, and there would be little point in doing a very small area about the proposed N3 site, so you are into major expense - and significant further delays in drilling.

The argument always used to be that it was in general cheaper on land to do 2D and drill even if the you ended up needing more wells. Drilling on land is relatively cheap. It's a different situation to deep water where doing 3D is cheaper and the drills are very expensive.

Peter

[warbaby43] 04/8/2017 16:51

No N-3 drill in 2017 but following up the basin model and given the sparsity of seismic to the west of Ntorya, what price a survey with 2D over Namisange and, as Ritson has been banging on about, 3D at N-3 to ensure no stone is left unturned for the Big Un?