Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[bryet] 04/12/2017 11:02

Sp will hold back till investers feel company will deliver the goods and if they show that they can in the year end results I'm sure this will fly fingers crossed.

[foiledagain] 04/12/2017 10:54

Eddie. You are correct on several counts. Plat 25 will increase reserves and provide valuable data, and apart from that I still am not convinced Amerisur want substantial good news at this time....and you can pick whatever reason you want...but my own suspicion is that it is tied to RH.

Logically any good news in the face of millions of shares would do little and also waste the good news, so its no surprise that the best news is out of Amerisur's control, i.e. ONGC Mariposa-1.

TDH: the news that will get this moving is the news that RH has finished his disposal.

Just before that though, I'd expect to see an increase in volume as someone always knows before shareholders.

[al101uk] 04/12/2017 09:59

I wouldn't worry too much about "accounting profit", the key is cash flow. At half year we made operational free cash flow of around $7.7 million, then spent $20.5 million on acquisitions and development. Those are the key numbers in my view and I'd expect those numbers to improve substantially at year end.

The reason accounting profit/loss is fairly meaningless is in the notes:

"Cost of sales comprise cost of operations, transport costs, inventory movement, high prices tariffs, royalties and depreciation. Cost of sales was $31.8 million for H1 2017 compared to $24.5 million for H1 2016, principally reflecting the increase in production."

The key being "depreciation" ... "principally reflecting the increase in production"

Amerisur capitalizes development costs and then runs then off through depreciation of the asset as they produce from their reserves. Standard practice.

[the drewster] 04/12/2017 09:48

Booked increases in reserves needed for us to really fly ...

[davwall] 04/12/2017 09:46

So with Plat-22 producing 700+ bopd, it will be fingers crossed that the appraisal well Plat-27, situated further to the north on Pad 2N and currently being drilled, can be at least as productive.

[the drewster] 04/12/2017 09:34

H1:
Ave production 4475
Revenue $38.2M
Ave sales price $47.2
Loss before tax $1.6M
EBITDA $7.6M
Net Cash generated $8.5M

Standing still, just upping the average sales price (and no corresponding increase in costs) by 5% takes the loss out.
However, prices are up MUCH more than 5% vs H1. Production will be up around 10%. OBA usage is up from average 3936 in H1 to hopefully nearer 4500 in H2 which should reduce costs by a significant amount.
Ultimately, if H2 can’t turn a profit, there needs to be some detailed explanation regarding why on earth not.

I’d expect net cash inflow H2 to be over $10M, and profit of around $5M

[chopper harris1] 04/12/2017 09:14

Plat 25 is disappointing in an AMER context, particularly when up against Mariposa production. But a company like PPC would kill for a 180 bod production from a single well and would be shouting it from the rooftops.

[eddie_yates] 04/12/2017 09:01

FoiledAgain
At least we now know the outcome of Plat 25 so 1 less thing to complain about!
IMO Plat 25 is important in the fact that the data obtained will be used in the calculation of new reserves from the northern extension of the Platanillo Field.

[dodge city] 04/12/2017 08:59

So will the company report a profit for this year and how much will it be if they do?

[the drewster] 04/12/2017 08:46

H2 c. 5000 average (just less than or so they say) predicted (H1 was 4475)
H2 prices are up about 15% on H1.

H2 revenues ought to be over $48m on a simple calculation against $38.2M H1, and possibly threaten $50m with a good December given POO.

[eddie_yates] 04/12/2017 08:44

And reserves are increased

[dodge city] 04/12/2017 08:40

This won't move until the production increase is reflected in the financial results imo.

[lucyp00p] 04/12/2017 08:39

Nobody cares is my bet. The current structure promises no benefit to pi's short of a takeover which, due to the critical role of JW is not going to happen. So the fat cats pig out and we speculate that there will be jam tomorrow. Sadly, it ain't happening any time soon. Sad to conclude this is a bit of a waste of time right now.

[the drewster] 04/12/2017 08:38

Peak production, and peak OBA throughput, were both below September AND October figures. WHY??

[the dark horse] 04/12/2017 08:30

One wonders that it will take to get this stock price moving. There was more excitement when we were drilling and not producing! Can't see anything bad in RNS and can see loads of positive and yet we trade barely 100k (thats less than £20k) in the first 30 mins
- is nobody looking, does nobody care, or is there just concerted effort to keep a lid on things? The market seems either hell bent on squeezing the (perceived) weak holder or worse, preparing us for a low ball offer from...(ONGC perhaps as they know what our 30% and the use of the OBA is worth)
- many a true word said in jest ;-)

[foiledagain] 04/12/2017 08:26

dav. you would never want a well to operate at maximum, as it would soon damage the well , and that is the point of LTT, adjust choke/production to maximise data and output from the well over longer period and help plan the development/completion techniques on future production wells.

[foiledagain] 04/12/2017 08:20

I will be surprised if Plat-25 doesn't fade from the scene, at 180bopd with unstated low water cut its likely to disappear off the radar without comment although there is no mention whether its natural flow or ESP

If Amer are not controlling news flow in the face of a seller then the real progress has not been from Amerisur but from ONGC and questions would need to be asked if that were to persist.

[davwal] 04/12/2017 08:17

I wonder how much the final CPO-5 production will be increased by? If in LTT mode producing 3100 bopd it’s running at, say, 70% of the maximum that would mean a final 1330 bopd (30%) to Amer.

[croasdalelfc] 04/12/2017 08:13

500k barrels in 3 months at $50 gives $25m gross revenue.The next 3 months would be great to get 600k barrels @ $55 = $33m

[foiledagain] 04/12/2017 08:06

Even the BoD have difficulty in the face of the apparent continued seller. Over 7000bopd hits year end target early,

Plus WTI price around $15 over Amerisur's projected figures based on $45 oil, with $30 netback on $45.

Mariposa and CPO-5 looks increasingly tasty, but then we have to consider its the only area that Amerisur do not control news flow.

[tsmith2] 04/12/2017 08:06

POO is a lot lot higher than it was at start of the year..

[fadilz] 04/12/2017 08:05

All good. You have to believe that social issues will pass.

On my model, we should now be in mid 30s. So unless something has fundamentally changed, I would expect to reach this as confidence in production builds. Note the use of the word 'sustainable' regarding the >7k exit rate.

[tsmith2] 04/12/2017 07:54

"I am pleased current production is over 7,000 bopd. Platanillo production was affected due to a short period of regional social issues in the early part of November which have now been resolved by central Government. Platanillo-27 on Pad 2N is drilling ahead on time and budget and we expect results from this well in December. I was pleased to report the commencement of the Mariposa-1 LTT, which is adding further material production to Amerisur, with, we believe, more to come from this well as the LTT process develops.Mariposa looks v v exciting

[trotting12] 04/12/2017 07:49

Plat 25 a bit disappointing ,bUt mariposa looks like a great result !!