Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[the reverend david] 08/9/2017 10:32

On the 9th may at the agm I spent a little time with JW and asked what was the
price that the company sold a barrel to the refineries for and he quoted
$32-33, on that day wti was $46 approx

[al101uk] 08/9/2017 09:23

acv74,

A whole discussion in itself, but you used PE in your valuation... PE uses earnings defined as EPS and EPS is "corporation's net income after tax that is available to its common stockholders".

I'm normally wary of companies that headline things like EBIT or EBITDA as if tax, amortisation and depreciation aren't real costs. Tax is a cash cost ffs, it effects cash flow directly... silly not include it and the only valid excuse I've heard is in situations where tax is uncommonly complex and they want to give an illustration of the underlying business performance. Even that doesn't justify solely highlighting profits before tax.

In any case, I prefer price to cash flow as a ratio typically, but we're not there yet.

Profit is opinion, cash flow is fact as they say.

£1 By Xmas... why not!

[acv74] 07/9/2017 17:07

Valuation exercises on trading companies are normally based on pre tax profits (or EBIT or EBITDA) however royalties would come straight off the top line and reduce gross profit so they would affect the valuation.However I don't think £1 or more in 3-4 years is unachievable, in fact I think it's eminently achievable.

[marnewton] 07/9/2017 16:52

Still riding above the 8 day EMA - with the 50 day SMA putting a lid on things.

M

[al101uk] 07/9/2017 16:25

Doesn't include taxes or royalties either ;-)

There's a long way from - to profit.

[moneylender] 07/9/2017 16:21

Something has leaked in last hour or so!!!

[meneither2] 07/9/2017 16:19

Oops I did mean poo not the price of it!

[meneither2] 07/9/2017 16:18

Agree, price of poo helping a bit

[tsmith2] 07/9/2017 16:01

Like the strength of buys building up

[fsawatcher] 07/9/2017 15:06

chart lookin lovely jubbly goin into earnings call on 25th sept

spiky wikey all the way to 24p wonky donky

[tsmith2] 07/9/2017 15:06

Simple maths - costs coming down, volume going up = more margin

[acv74] 07/9/2017 14:49

The figures don't factor in administration expenses, which they should do, and these will be a bigger drag on results the smaller the numbers.Once they are doing 30k a day we have benefit from economies of scale which make our admin expenses less important/proportionately smaller.I think they need to show we are running profitably at our current production levels, if the numbers look good the market cannot ignore this forever.

[tsmith2] 07/9/2017 14:13

Healthier trades

[acv74] 07/9/2017 13:57

30,000 x 350 days x $40 profit per barrel x 10 (PE) divided by 1.3 to convert to sterling divided by 1.2 billion shares in issue= £2.69 per shareWe can dream....

[eddie_yates] 07/9/2017 13:15

acv74
What price do you get using your figures?

[al101uk] 07/9/2017 12:53

Tony,

As you're probably aware, I was commenting on the injustice of it all, well aware of the potential here, just ready for it to be realised now... this time next year.

[harrisun] 07/9/2017 12:46

The market does, it just wants every penny even if it means scalping retail investors, which it has done

[acv74] 07/9/2017 12:46

Tony, extrapolate that forward to 2020, higher oil price (maybe/probable), 20k from our own operations plus 10k (our share) of CPO-5.Then stick a rather more normal PE of 8-10 on it.Using these maths, I get to a share price of rather more than the £1 mentioned on this board a few days ago.I've been a shareholder since 2005, with a short gap in the middle, what's another few years?

[tonyrelaxes] 07/9/2017 12:10

Al. 3855 "Our market cap is now under £200 million"

You like figures -

The OBA has proven capable of 10,000bopd.
POO now $54, less $15 costs = $39 net profit.

If we deliver 10,000 daily for (say) 350 days (to allow maintenance downtime) the OBA alone generates $136,500,000 or £103,740,000 net per annum.

A company earning its Market Cap in under 2 years is a very, very rare opportunity.

But we all know that - it's just the market that doesn't!

[tsmith2] 07/9/2017 11:35

Lots of good news to come here.Silly price

[bigwavedave] 07/9/2017 11:19

30p is what I'd call better, trotting. But 17p is a start, sort of.

[tyler durden1] 07/9/2017 07:50

The same with ALL shale based companies, especially explorers

they will crash and burn investors badly

Shale was there for one thing - emergency measure to give impression of glut for impending shortage

that's why move to EV's is apace, to plug shortage they know will occur after shale ponzi is clear to all. only shale and tar sands that prop up slowing world supplies

Saudi and ME oil is knackered

they are trying to smash Venezuela to get at their oil reserves

If super volcano occurs forget solar cells or EV's only reliable fuel is hydrocarbons

Just not enough to go round and they know it

anyone investing in shale needs to see a doctor quick

[doughboy66] 07/9/2017 07:31

Ditto above post ,it is a truly mad valuation on UKOG in my opinion.