Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[al101uk] 09/8/2017 14:45

FA,

The real problem is that management have previously kept bad news to themselves, so not only could this be a seller offloading, but there is no certainty that all the bad news is out in the open.

Another reason to get news out when it's relevant, not once mitigated.

I'd happily buy at a price that I considered cheap if I trusted management were being honest and disclosing information in a timely manner, that is clearly not the case here.

In the past I've bought on the way down using cost averaging to my advantage, I no longer feel comfortable doing that, even at this price.

[lucyp00p] 09/8/2017 14:41

So the biggest sale trades notified here today are 5 x 50k and 1 x 75k. If Rex is truly offloading at £8,500 a time he's going to be a while, although the effect is clearly putti g a lid on the price.

[al101uk] 09/8/2017 14:37

Motivation is the key, there have to be incentives:

1) For the buyer.
2) For the Management.
3) For the Shareholders.

I've seen buyouts happen, but they tend to happen to the detriment of shareholders in the following situations:

1) Companies that are majority owned by a single party.
2) Companies that are in financial distress and need additional funding.
3) Companies that are fraudulent, who's managers want to hide the evidence.

All other takeovers tend to happen at a price that is mutually acceptable. If you truly believe that the current valuation is ridiculous, then it's difficult to see why II's or management would see the situation differently.

Management taking part in an attempted buy out or recommending a low offer would likely see a pretty rapid ending of their tenure should they fail and we know GC has at least equal regard for his ego as he does for money. We also know that his tolerance for risk is relatively low (curtailing operations when oil price is low, not using debt etc). So an all or nothing bet seems unlikely to me.

You also assume that should an offer be made at an insanely low price and be accepted by management for some nefarious reason, that there would be no other bidder which again seems odd if the bid is ridiculously low.

[eddie_yates] 09/8/2017 14:29

Is there any way we can find current details of the share register or is this info private??

[foiledagain] 09/8/2017 14:23

Yet if we concentrate on FACTS we know RH has been disposing of shares and not notifying via RNS in any holdings announcement.

There are these points to consider.

One: An intent blatant disregard for AIM rules on holdings....DOUBTFUL

Two: A single transaction does not have to be notified until that transaction is concluded, including passing through relevant percentages. It is a loophole that is often used. FACT: Rex has not notified and we know from the Company registrar that his holdings has gone down.

On that basis its likely Rex has not notified because the sale is not yet concluded? This is the only circumstance that would keep Rex within notification rules unless anyone thinks he would deliberate ignore the rules. I don't.

The problem is not Rex, the problem is the BoD not finding out and notifying shareholders, which potentially leaves Amerisur and the City who can be privy to such information being in a position of inside traders be default.

The City because they are privy to information of a seller, not made clear to shareholders, and the BoD by not discharging their obligations to the shareholders if they fail to notify shareholders.

It must be price sensitive information, as otherwise I'd like an explanation as to the massive drop in the SP, which seems to fit the category of 'price sensitive'.

The City won't buy loads of shares if they know someone is still offloading, but investors will be guessing the bottom, with some being shafted good and proper in what is a very unacceptable situation.

[ohsod1t] 09/8/2017 14:15

Amy idea what a raising in tensions between US and N Korea would have on the oil price?

[meneither2] 09/8/2017 13:57

Al good post. I was thinking along the lines of a bid that is sold as good because it's a 50% premium to the average price over the previous 30 days or whatever those rns's usually say....

[moneylender] 09/8/2017 13:12

Malcy today

An update this morning from AMER on the CPO-5 block and Mariposa-1 where ONGC have officially filed as a discovery. The well flowed a controlled 4,601 b/d of 40.8° API crude with a restricted choke indicating ‘strong further production potential’. A LTT will lead to production probably towards the end of this year, ONGC have a reputation for being slow but once a decision has been taken to produce will back it with significant funds. AMER’s 30% will therefore give them a substantial boost which is why they have remained confident of their short and medium term production guidance.

Although I have no worries about the Putumayo region it is comforting to see that this success up north can significantly add to their reserve base, increase production and therefore value. With the market currently showing little interest in E&P companies, I would suggest that this is an incredible store of value that will be unlocked, possibly with little notice, accordingly investors should keep a close eye on the recent uptick in activity in South America.

[aceuk] 09/8/2017 12:57

It's a very cunning plan Baldrick, just wish I'd thought of it and not Prinny ;-)

[davwall] 09/8/2017 12:50

Okay al101uk, I can go along with your thinking, including the death ray (quite likely). But a cat in GC's lap..? Come on, no chance...

[tonyrelaxes] 09/8/2017 12:44

Thanks Al.

I'm just going outside and may be some time.

[bigwavedave] 09/8/2017 12:28

I just can't help myself, al.

Great post.

[al101uk] 09/8/2017 12:24

BWD,

How dare you!

[al101uk] 09/8/2017 12:24

OK, can someone explain the story so far, because I'm completely lost. Here's what I've picked up:

Rex is selling, but is hiding his sales and as part of a vendetta against GC and NH is killing the share price.

GC and NH on the other hand are allowing the share price to fall and being blatantly mis-leading to punish Rex and because they want to complete a management buyout on the cheap. Obviously Rex hasn't worked this out yet.

At the same time as GC and NH are colluding with third parties to remove Amerisur from AIM, OGNC are eyeing us up because we're a steal at this price and they want CPO-5 to themselves.

The other eight companies that collectively own 40% of Amerisur along with PI's who own another reasonable chunk and other holders under the 3% threshold are all merely sheep who will be hoodwinked in to selling their shares because the price is falling and management have convinced us all that they are incompetent.

Why? Because they aren't as clever as us here on this board... obviously we're the smartest guys in the room... but wait...

In another cunning twist GC is letting the II's in on all the secrets via II only presentations because he hates PI's and wants to cosy up to his city mates.

While at the same time they were the ones who removed his options, so he hates them too, but hates Rex even more. GC doesn't have many friends... but he has enough to muster 75% of the company and complete his management buy out.

Meanwhile on the operational front, GC is hiding bad news... because... ermmmm.. he wants the share price up... down... ermmm.. I mean... John Wardle... bannana!

I imagine GC sitting on a swivel chair in front of huge computer screens with a cat in his lap laughing manically to himself. I wonder if he has a death ray?

[broncowarrior] 09/8/2017 12:22

40p would do it right now.

[bigwavedave] 09/8/2017 12:22

So, GC and JW somehow conspire to wipe £100m off the market cap so they can sneak in and buy the company for 16p/share while no-one's looking? Are you all drunk?

[tonyrelaxes] 09/8/2017 12:02

I'm unclear about the "major share holders (msh)" and the shares declared under their name.

I always thought shares held by the msh as Nominee for other investors are not so listed, just the shares in funds directly managed by the msh.
But I'm not so sure.

[davwall] 09/8/2017 12:00

Personally, I can't see how a low offer situation can just be whistled up. share price tends to rise on rumour of an offer, not go into decline with continuous large disposals. Greedy IIs would break ranks and be all over this like a rash.

[eddie_yates] 09/8/2017 11:50

Well I personally think that a low bid is on it's way.
I'm more than happy to be proved wrong but I see no other explanation for the constant sells and shoddy reporting from the board.
Can suspected unscrupulous activities be reported upon to defend "ourselves" in any way???

[al101uk] 09/8/2017 11:22

A 75% vote is required to de-list a company from AIM. I very much doubt that Amerisurs board, even with Michinokos help could muster that kind of support.

Owning between 30% and 50% of the shares would result in a forced offer being made for the remaining shares.

If you exclude Michinoko, the remaining eight major share holders own approx 40% of the company.

Any sale would have to be mutually consenting and I doubt GC would want to shaft the II's he currently has on board, he has other interests and his reputation to worry about.

Personally I think if a takeover offer was made, the price would be respectable and probably wouldn't come from the board.

[eddie_yates] 09/8/2017 11:15

Sounds familiar!!!

[eddie_yates] 09/8/2017 11:15

Management buyouts are similar in all major legal aspects to any other acquisition of a company. The particular nature of the MBO lies in the position of the buyers as managers of the company and the practical consequences that follow from that. In particular, the due diligence process is likely to be limited as the buyers already have full knowledge of the company available to them. The seller is also unlikely to give any but the most basic warranties to the management, on the basis that the management know more about the company than the sellers do and therefore the sellers should not have to warrant the state of the company.

Some concerns about management buyouts are that the asymmetric information possessed by management may offer them unfair advantage relative to current owners. The impending possibility of an MBO may lead to principal–agent problems, moral hazard, and perhaps even the subtle downward manipulation of the stock price prior to sale via adverse information disclosure, including accelerated and aggressive loss recognition, public launching of questionable projects, and adverse earning surprises. Naturally, such corporate governance concerns also exist whenever current senior management is able to benefit personally from the sale of their company or its assets. This would include, for example, large parting bonuses for CEOs after a takeover or management buyout.

Since corporate valuation is often subject to considerable uncertainty and ambiguity, and since it can be heavily influenced by asymmetric or inside information, some question the validity of MBOs and consider them to potentially represent a form of insider trading.

The mere possibility of an MBO or a substantial parting bonus on sale may create perverse incentives that can reduce the efficiency of a wide range of firms—even if they remain as public companies. This represents a substantial potential negative externality. The managers of the target company may at times also set up a holding company for the purpose of purchasing the shares of the target company.

[eddie_yates] 09/8/2017 11:05

Would they not need to accumulate a minimum amount of shares in order to make an aggressive takeover bid??

[lucyp00p] 09/8/2017 10:53

Well it depends who controls Michinoko

[eddie_yates] 09/8/2017 10:45

A couple of questions for you business minded people.
Are there enough separate major shareholders with enough combined shares to prevent a takeover?
What criteria needs to be met for a buyout to be possible?
Thanks in advance