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Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Amedeo Air Four Plus Limited LSE:AA4 London Ordinary Share GG00BWC53H48 RED ORD NPV
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.00p +0.00% 93.00p 1,047,094 08:00:00
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
91.00p 95.00p 93.00p 93.00p 93.00p
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Industrial Transportation 219.20 228.37 39.08 2.4 597.3

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Date Time Title Posts
09/5/201911:51AMEDEO AIR FOUR PLUS LIMITED49

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DateSubject
15/6/2019
09:20
Amedeo Air Four Plus Daily Update: Amedeo Air Four Plus Limited is listed in the Industrial Transportation sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker AA4. The last closing price for Amedeo Air Four Plus was 93p.
Amedeo Air Four Plus Limited has a 4 week average price of 93p and a 12 week average price of 90p.
The 1 year high share price is 109p while the 1 year low share price is currently 90p.
There are currently 642,250,000 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 368,959 shares. The market capitalisation of Amedeo Air Four Plus Limited is £597,292,500.
09/5/2019
11:51
davebowler: Nimrod; This morning Emirates released their 2018-19 results. Below we highlight commentary from the Annual Report relating to the A380 as well as summarising Emirates performance and milestones over the year. Links to the full announcements and reports are at the end of this email. We also provide an updated table detailing share price total return for each of the DNA/AA4 companies. As ever, if you have any questions on the results or would like to arrange a meeting or call please do get in touch. Many thanks. Emirates comments relating to the A380 from the 2018-19 Annual Report: We are strong believers in the A380 programme, despite Airbus’ decision to stop production in 2021. Our current and future investments in the iconic Emirates A380, including the introduction of Premium Economy in 2020, will continue to wow our customers. We have been reviewing our fleet mix options for some time now, so converting some of our A380 orders into A330neos and A350s gives us the required flexibility. In 2019-20, we plan to receive six A380s and retire eight Boeing 777s, keeping our fleet strong and young. Our A380s continue to command awe and stir excitement. We continue to maintain our position as the largest operator of A380 aircraft and with the addition of 7 new aircraft, we now have 109 super-jumbos in our fleet. The high seat factor on the A380 fleet continues to demonstrate the customer preference for this aircraft. This fleet carried 41% (2017-18: 41%) of our passengers in 2018-19. With A380s operating to 50 destinations, 32% (2017-18: 31%) of all cities across the Emirates network are served by an A380. This aircraft will remain the cornerstone of our fleet mix and product offering well into the 2030s. We also include a recent article which first appeared in the April 2019 edition of Australian Aviation: “THERE’S PLENTY OF LIFE LEFT IN THE AIRBUS A380”. The article provides a detailed re-cap of recent A380 developments and also commentary on the potential future outlook for the model. The article is available here: hxxps://australianaviation.com.au/2019/05/theres-plenty-of-life-left-in-the-airbus-a380/ Emirates Group Announces 2018-19 results Group records 31st consecutive year of profit of AED 2.3 billion (US$ 631 million) Emirates reports a profit of AED 871 million (US$ 237 million), 69% down from the previous year Revenue increases by 6% to AED 97.9 billion (US$ 26.7 billion), supported by steady passenger and cargo performance Airline capacity crosses 63 billion ATKM with a net addition of 2 new aircraft to the fleet
30/4/2019
13:12
davebowler: Nimrod Capital; Below we reproduce the most recent email which was sent to investors ahead of the shortened week before Easter. The only updates are the current metrics and fund return tables and investors should note that the respective companies went ex-dividend as planned. As ever, if you have any further comments or questions please do get in touch to arrange a meeting. The DNA/AA4 investment companies have released their fact sheets for Q1 2019 and also declared their latest quarterly dividend distributions for April. The shares will go ex their respective dividend amounts on Thursday 18th April with payments made by the end of the month. The latest fact sheets highlight news and developments not only on the A380 but also the various airlines and the global aviation market. In this email we highlight through a Q&A, which we hope investors will find useful, a re-cap of some of the most common and relevant questions investors have been asking following the announcement that Airbus will close production of the A380 in 2021 (investors might also wish to look at Emirates’ consequent statement - hxxps://www.emirates.com/media-centre/emirates-signs-deal-for-40-a330-900s-30-a350-900s). Clearly this development has impacted the DNA/AA4 company ratings with the shares marked-down pretty much universally upon the announcement, apparently with little differentiation to reflect their varying size, diversity, outstanding dividends or potential for capital outcome. Regardless, both existing and prospective shareholders should note few other investments have the transparency and granularity of the financial structure that can enable analysts and portfolio managers to model the outstanding targeted dividends and their own assumptions regarding aircraft valuations in order to assess the sensitivity of prospective returns and IRRs. Finally, we note that during the last week of March AA4 Director, David Gelber, purchased 16,000 shares in AA4, bringing his holding to 322,518 shares in the company. Q&A Is it bad news that Airbus is closing production of the A380? The announcement removes the uncertainty which has hung over the programme for more than two years now and brings clarity to investors, airlines and lessors over how many A380s will be produced. The scale of the reduction in Emirates A380 order was notable, having previously had 178 aircraft on either order/option, and was likely, in part, driven by Rolls Royce’ reluctance to deliver further Trent 900 engines. This follows engine durability problems with high-pressure compressor blades and performance issues in the hot and sandy Dubai climate leading to Rolls Royce incurring significant financial cost through compensation clauses. Our partners Doric and Amedeo both believe that the shutdown of the A380 program should, on balance, be perceived as positive for the utilisation and potential future value of the aircraft on lease to the Emirates. At the time of the announcement Amedeo commented: "Amedeo considers today's Airbus announcement to have positive implications for the future values of the installed A380 fleet, particularly those aircraft operated by Emirates. We estimate that the long-term core Emirates A380 fleet will comprise in excess of 100 A380 units, which we expect will continue to be operated by Emirates for the entirety of their useful economic lives.” Prior to the announcement Doric commented: The A380 has been and remains to be a niche aircraft, which constitutes a very valuable asset under the right circumstances. … A timely termination of the program would leave Emirates without access to new A380s for replacement and to keep up with its growth plans. From an aircraft owner’s point of view, a production stop can be seen as a value enhancement to existing A380s. It will limit the supply of A380s - and hence the number of competing aircraft, when it comes to a release or sale. As the number of used A380s available is very limited and the overall A380 fleet would not grow further, due to a looming production stop, Emirates should be incentivized to keep their existing A380s longer than originally planned Emirates first 90 A380s delivered are all equipped with Engine Alliance engines (a joint-venture between GE and Pratt and Whitney) and indeed are the engine type fitted to all of the A380s owned across the DNA/AA4 investment companies (including those with Etihad). It appears Emirates A380 fleet will now only ever consist of a maximum of 123 aircraft, of which 60 are currently on operating lease with the outstanding deliveries expected to be financed either on balance sheet or via other finance structures. Rolls-Royce are reluctant to produce the improvements in the engine performance that Emirates demanded as they continue to service a back-log of grounded aircraft (Boeing 787 Dreamliners), combined with senior management changes at Airbus (incoming new CEO, CFO and COO) and, ultimately, Emirates frustration with the Trent program, seemingly pressed Emirates into a reduction of their A380 order. However, both Rolls-Royce and Airbus have still secured alternative equipment deliveries, and their on-going relationships with the Emirates, through the aforementioned A330neo and A350 deliveries (the latter not due to start until 2024) – where Rolls-Royce also happen to be the sole engine provider. Are Emirates changing their fleet strategy? Why did they order some A330neo’s and A350s? Neither the A330neo, nor the A350 are direct competitors to the A380 in terms of passenger capacity (seating roughly 260-330 passengers respectively, depending on layouts, versus from 489 to 615 for Emirates’ A380s in 3-class or 2-class configurations). Emirates, alongside the announcement by Airbus, were highly complementary about the A380 in their press release. His Highness Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed Al Maktoum, Chairman and Chief Executive, Emirates Airline and Group stated, “For us, the A380 is a wonderful aircraft loved by our customers and our crew. It is a differentiator for Emirates. ..... The A380 will remain a pillar of our fleet well into the 2030s.” Further, an Emirates spokesperson commented: “Bear in mind the A380s we receive in 2021 will be flying for another 15-20 years… We have some units on our books, some on lease or other structures, so retirement age will vary, but we intend to keep flying our A380s for as long as we can.” Even Emirates 777X deliveries which are due to start in 2020 are, most likely, destined to refresh the early 777-300ER deliveries while the A330neo referenced above will be utilised on shorter-haul routes with less traffic. The A350 deliveries are not scheduled to start until 2024. Will Airbus and suppliers continue to support service and maintenance of the aircraft going forward? In short, yes. At the recent ceremony for the first A380 delivery to All Nippon Airways (ANA), CEO Shinya Katanozaka stressed that he has “no concern” over the closing of the A380 production line, pointing out that the carrier has been promised “strong support for maintenance and parts supply”. Parts suppliers to the programme, such as GKN have also made public comments about the provision of parts and Airbus themselves recently notified operators that full support will remain in place until less than five units remain in the air. hxxps://www.arabianbusiness.com/transport/414057-global-a380-suppliers-should-see-revenue-for-20-more-years How many A380s will there be and who will be operating them? The total production run for the aircraft will be around 250 units. There were 17 further deliveries outlined in the announcement by Airbus (14th February 2019). 14 of these deliveries will go the Emirates, taking their total number of A380 deliveries to 123 by 2021 while three A380s will be operated by All Nippon Airways (ANA) of Japan – the first of which was delivered on 20th March 2019. Current operator list and outstanding orders: Operator Total in Service Total on Order Emirates Airline 109 14 Singapore Airlines 19 0 Lufthansa 14 0 British Airways 12 0 Qantas 12 0 Air France 10 0 Etihad Airways 10 0 Korean Air 10 0 Qatar Airways 10 0 Asiana Airlines 6 0 Malaysia Airlines 6 0 Thai Airways International 6 0 China Southern Airlines 5 0 Hi Fly Malta 1 0 ANA - All Nippon Airways 0 3 231 17 How many potential A380 lease expiries are there over the coming years? According to data from Ascend, which is regularly updated for new information, the current outlook for A380 lease expiries over the next four years is: 2019: None 2020: 5, none of which are Emirates 2021: 7, 2 of which are Emirates 2022: 9, 4 of which are Emirates (including DNA1 in Dec-22) When are the next independent appraisals out? Appraisals are undertaken annually based on 31st March valuation date (the date of each company’s financial year-end). The appraisal values will be published on the quarterly fact sheets for Q2 which are due to be released in July and are a simple average of the three independent expert appraisers which incorporate future inflation expectations from each respective appraiser. The aircraft values reported under IFRS, published in the respective audited accounts of each company, are reported without inflation (but the same in all other respects). Current Metrics: DNA DNA 2 DNA 3 AA4+ Market Cap £40m £326m £197m £652m Yield 9.6% 9.6% 9.2% 8.1% Share Price 97p 188.5p 89.5p 101.5p Source: Bloomberg, 29-Apr-19 Fund Returns (GBP): Fund Launch Date 13-Dec-10 14-Jul-11 02-Jul-13 13-May-15 DNA DNA 2 DNA 3 AA4+ Dividends 74.25% 64.75% 45.20% 33.00% Capital Gain -6.00% -5.75% -10.50% 1.50% Total Return1 81.08% 68.11% 38.61% 39.14% Annualised Total Return1 7.33% 6.89% 5.76% 8.68% FTSE All-Share Annualised Total Return1 7.49% 7.53% 7.31% 6.03% Source: Bloomberg, 29-Apr-19 1Since respective Company inception, dividends reinvested Conclusion: Over the last eight years the aircraft investment companies have consistently paid their dividends and have provided high-income to investors with little correlation to other asset classes. Following the recent share price movements all of the vehicles are offering current cash yields of between 8.8-9.5% backed by internationally recognised flag carriers, and they own an asset around which there are still many competing views but of which there will only ever be a finite supply and particularly that has no direct competitor in terms of capacity. The fund factsheets are available at: hxxp://www.dnairone.com hxxp://www.dnairtwo.com hxxp://www.dnairthree.com hxxp://www.aa4plus.com As ever, if you have any further questions or would like to request an update meeting please contact Chris Holland at Nimrod Capital. Nimrod Capital LLP (‘Nimrod’;) is not a broker, it does not trade with any counterparties, it does not produce investment research nor does it have any paid for research agreements with any counterparties. This communication does not constitute “research̶1; as defined by the Financial Conduct Authority Handbook and may be assessed as a minor non-monetary benefit. Kind Regards Marc Gordon
08/1/2018
14:18
davebowler: Brief note written by Mark Ambrose at Jefferies on the DNA vehicles and in particular on DNA3. Doric Nimrod Air Three (DNA3 LN, £212m m/cap, px = 96.5p, 7.4% discount) Background: DNA3 was created to provide a long-term, stable income stream to investors, as well as the potential for capital appreciation, by purchasing and subsequently leasing four A380 aircraft to Emirates for twelve years. Investment case/key catalyst: Uncertainty over residual values has always been the key risk with these funds. However, in our view the market can sometimes overreact to negative newsflow. Even assuming significant haircuts to the latest residual value estimates, DNA3 can still offer attractive returns. DNA3’s recent fall was triggered by two pieces of A380 newsflow: Singapore Airline’s decision not to renew its lease on the first A380 and that aircraft owner’s failure, so far, to find a new lessee/owner; and shock, when a widely-expected large A380 order was not announced by Emirates’ at the Dubai Airshow. Emirates’ CEO later said the airline would not rule out buying more A380s, but needed firm assurances from Airbus that it would keep production of the aircraft going. If anything Emirates’ insistence on some guarantee of the A380’s future only demonstrates its importance to Emirates’ business model. This, to us, suggests that if Airbus ceases production, demand for used A380’s – especially those already kitted out for Emirates’ needs and whose flying/maintenance history is well-known to Emirates – should only increase. Other drivers: The leases are structured with two components: a GBP tranche funds the payment of dividends to DNA3 shareholders; the USD tranche is used to pay down the fully-amortizing debt prior to the end of the leases. FX risk is therefore eliminated other than for the residual value of the aircraft, which a USD asset. There is a misconception that DNA3 and its sister funds trade at a significant premium to NAV. In fact this is due to a quirk of accounting that treats the aircraft as GBP assets but the associated debt as USD liabilities. This wrongly creates the impression of a large FX mismatch. Correcting this, we estimate DNA3 is actually trading at a 7.4% discount to NAV (assuming the latest appraisal values). Valuation: On DNA3’s appraisal value (c.50% of cost price after 12 years) the current share price implies an IRR of 14.5%. Even assuming a halving of the residual value from the appraisal agents’ latest estimates, the current share price still offers a high single-digit IRR, much of which is represented by dividends funded by Emirates’ lease payments. Viewed instead as a bond, DNA3 currently pays a coupon (dividend yield) of 8.5% which is backed by Emirates’ creditworthiness, and the principal (current share price) is covered so long as the aircraft are sold for 29% of cost – a 44% haircut to the latest appraisal value.
11/5/2017
14:58
davebowler: Marc Gordon Partner DDI: + 44 207 382 4560 | Mob: + 44 7785 297620 | Tel: + 44 207 382 4565 | Fax: +44 207 628 7548 Nimrod Capital LLP, 3 St Helen’s Place, London EC3A 6AB Emirates announced their full year results to end March 2017 today and enclosed below is the release as well as the links to both the summary and full year annual report and accounts. As you can see while profits are down passenger traffic increased as did capacity, the Emirates’ Chairman refers to the resilience of their operations and their increased investment for the future. In terms of the DNA/AA4 vehicles the airline continues to perform in line with its obligations under the rental leases and shareholders are benefitting from the approximate 8% current yield based on current share price derived from the quarterly dividends. If you would like more details please let us know. The link to the press release in Emirates’ media center: hxxps://www.emirates.com/media-centre/ek-newsroom-emirates-group-announces-2016-17-results Download link for the complete annual report: hxxps://cdn.ek.aero/downloads/ek/pdfs/report/annual_report_2017.pdf
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