Alumasc Share Discussion Threads

[rightnellie] 19/1/2021 08:38

Very positive update today - even considering re-introducing the dividend!

[the diddymen] 22/10/2020 10:47

The share price has responded positively!

TD

[trier1] 22/10/2020 08:01

Good AGM update today. The future is bright (well I hope it is).

[trier1] 21/10/2020 12:30

Pension deficit is a negative for sure. Housing is recovering and should do well in the next 12 months. I am positive for it.

[the diddymen] 05/10/2020 12:58

trier1, I see where you are coming from. My post was from the perspective of difficult economic conditions in the housing market. Ultimately it is recession that distinguishes the well prepared from the average. There is some evidence that ALU are on the average side, not helped by the constant drip drip from the pension deficit.

TD

[tole] 24/9/2020 12:22

Ex-dividend todayThe Board is recommending to shareholders a final dividend of 2 pence per share (2018/19: 4.4 pence), applicable to members on the share register on 25 September and to be paid on 30 October.

[trier1] 15/9/2020 09:24

Two new executive directors last year and a new FD should be recruited this year. so significant board changes. By implication in the announcements the FD would have been recruited already if it were not for COVID. Perhaps the new directors were the reason for the improvement in costs by merging/closing sites last year?

This suggests to me that continued progress is quite feasible here.

It could be a value trap I accept but I see little downside risk with the potential for significant upside. If it doesn't happen in the next year or so I will move on but the risk/reward is attractive.

[the diddymen] 13/9/2020 09:47

Sphere, there has been very little change on the board at ALU over many years - tinkering at best. Not a problem, but over the last two decades performance has drifted. When you look at the B/S and strip out intangibles, net assets are negligible. Not necessarily the best way to look at a B/S because the brands generate value, and in my view brands are critical. However look at the P&L and at long last the Board have extracted value by cutting the cost base. First question why has it taken this long. Second question have they cut the right areas. My cautious approach would therefore go like this. The Board appear to have managed a continuous gentle decline in the business over many years. They have now taken action to improve bottom line profit, but have they just exacerbated the long term drift by cutting the 'overhead' which supports the intangibles in the B/S?

Add to that the continuous curse of the pension deficit - whatever they pump in, the deficit always seems to stick at c £20m. Also add to the mix that Timloc is very much exposed to the housing sector, which I guess will die in 2021.

Investing at the moment is never easy. Were I purchasing ALU at the moment I would be ready to take profits without emotion!

TD

[sphere25] 08/9/2020 15:29

Is this one of the few companies where there is some value and a potential longer term hold? Looks a resilient performance in such a difficult climate with a 2p dividend to boot. Forecasts of 14p in earnings and a 5p dividend for the current financial year appear to present value and even carry leeway if they're too optimistic and need to be pushed back.

A hell of alot of reports out today but how many of those companies can you look at and say there is real value? Most of the valuations look stretched when you look at the forward guidance or just sheer lack of guidance with the uncertainty.

Even outperformers like JD. where you're more open to an expansive multiple look very expensive. Beaten down ones like MGGT and EZJ don't carry appeal beyond shorter term trades. Clearly they're a different animal if a vaccine comes out in future.

This does appear to be the growing theme with the trend to more market participants with people being at home, a great deal young and inexperienced and with much shorter term horizons so perhaps nimble is better with many of the shares out there.

There's just so many with these recurring themes where I'm seeing nothing more than quick ins and out. The US is starting to correct some of the recent gains with larger sell offs and more volatility creeping in so some of the froth surely needs to come off here too.

Beyond ALU, a few look reasonable:
SCS are naturally doing well with the shift to the house - key resistance at 180
HFD also doing well and not on a bonkers valuation. Questions over sustainability?
SMDS making more positive noises particularly with a 12p dividend forecast
LUCE are performing very well. Even though alot priced in now, one to look at if the market panic sells down
MCB - Possibly, new strategy to hit £1 billion in turnover. Watch for big buying to signal a change of sentiment and belief in that strategy
DWF - Decent volume coming in today, heavily beaten down. Interesting chart. One to keep an eye on for further volume and possible break higher.
GMR - commented on this on the board a while back noting the short term momentum and guidance is to the upside, which has come to fruition. However, still a great deal of risk and the valuation isn't cheap imo on current numbers and forecasts so the execution really has to be almost perfect, but a speculative one that maybe does smash through my more conservative views beyond the shorter term.

These are just high level views and an opinion. Clearly folk have to do their own research and form their own views.

Should be interesting to see how far the US falls back and how that mainly tech based move flows through to sentiment here in all companies. After the incredible run, it really does appear to be stuttering at the moment.

[deanowls] 08/9/2020 12:15

Good update this morning. A record July and good sales in August. Nice turnaround happening.

[tole] 07/8/2020 15:45

The Company announces that it received notification on 6 August 2020 that Mr Jon Pither a Non-executive Director purchased 27,500 ordinary shares at an average price of 71.5p and Mrs P.A. Roth (closely associated person) also purchased 27,000 ordinary shares at an average price of 71.5p.

[tole] 28/7/2020 14:03

Alumasc reveals 'better than expected' trading 5 days Building products manufacturer Alumasc reports that business is better than it had been expecting during lockdown.Alumasc products on the Francis Crick Building in LondonAlumasc products on the Francis Crick Building in LondonThe financial year to 30th June 2020 ended with improving trading for Alumasc, with sales in the second half of May and during June significantly ahead of internal forecasts made earlier in the pandemic, the company said today.Revenue for the year is now expected to be approximately £76m, down 16% on the previous year almost entirely as a result of the Covid-19 lockdown hitting sales in late March, April and early May. However, cost reduction initiatives, begun before the outbreak and accelerated during it, have benefitted profitability,The net debt position is also better than expected, at £4.3m (compared to £5.1m a year ago).In a trading statement, Alumasc said: "Encouragingly, improved levels of trading have continued into July, and all sites and manufacturing locations are now fully operational. Each location has implemented appropriate social distancing requirements without any loss of productivity."It added: "Alumasc's cost savings programme, liquidity management, strong balance sheet and improved commercial positioning underpin a robust platform that should greatly benefit the group into a broader economic recovery when it materialises."

[tole] 27/7/2020 12:27

Good to see some director buying

[arthur_lame_stocks] 25/7/2020 14:08

Most of the cashflow from this company ends up in the pension fund.

[basem1] 25/7/2020 11:35

Big jump in the bid in the last few minutes last night from 64.8 to 69.5 You could sell quantity into that too

[trier1] 23/7/2020 13:53

Depending on size one can often buy within the spread.

Looking at current year earnings this is very cheap. I guess we will have to wait until last years earnings report in September when we will get a much better indication of what this year will bring for a rerating to occur.

[basem1] 23/7/2020 09:04

I wish they would sort the spread out it never used to be as bad as this. It used to be about 3p when the shares were above a pound Very off putting for buyers

[tole] 23/7/2020 08:57

I've got a small holding here. Doubled up on the bell on todays trading update.

[basem1] 22/7/2020 11:47

Anyone waiting to buy The spread is tightening all the time 63.33-65 Thought we might test 60 on the chart but it is looking unlikely now

[basem1] 29/6/2020 09:47

Markey makers seem to have too much stock here despite the large buys here lately Market cap starting to look ridiculous now

[basem1] 08/6/2020 13:25

Next leg up starting

[rcturner2] 19/2/2020 07:42

On stockopedia, the stock rank is 93 and Alumasc is rated as a "super stock", which will bring in buyers from their subscribers.

Still cheap at the this price.

[iasike] 18/2/2020 11:05

RCT, yes was thinking that may be helping the recent rise.