Altyngold Share Discussion Threads

[chipperfrd] 23/11/2017 14:06

RT,
Ditto to all that!!

[roguetreader] 23/11/2017 13:17

Chrisdgb
To be honest a takeover is the last thing I would actually want to see. I may seem delusional given the history of this project (Hambledon, Goldbridges and Altyn), but I still see this as a potential 10 bagger or more given the resource and the fact all of the hard work is (or should be) almost done. 2p would give me a small profit but the potential is so much more!!
RT

[chrisdgb] 23/11/2017 08:23

Takeover at 2p would seem amicable.....

[vish65] 22/11/2017 15:13

The 55.0 million buy from last week and appointment to the board today suggests to me they are reaching the end of the financing arrangements.

[roguetreader] 22/11/2017 14:38

As a brief add on to the above I've taken a look at African Resources commitment to Altyn since buying their majority stake. By my reckoning their stake has cost them an approximate average of 2.61p per share since buying in, in 2012. Given todays share price of circa 1.25p they are heavily under water, so I don't think they will be looking to get out any time soon. However, their approach of minimising costs whilst they get the business on to a profitable footing looks to be somewhat of a balancing act as the operational delays would surely be curtailed if they had a stronger balance sheet to invest in to the business now and bring forward production of profitable ounces.
RT

[roguetreader] 21/11/2017 12:48

These appear to be priced to go bust, but with African Resources owning circa 70%, I just don't see it. At todays prices they currently have a market cap of approximately £27M. They have probable ore 'RESERVES' of 2.26M Oz that are included within the 2.67M Oz of Indicated Resources plus an additional 2.47M Inferred Resources sitting outside the current Mine Plan.

They are probably the worst company I've ever come across to date re communication / updates and clarity of forward planning. They did say in their June report that they would update in Q4 re the additional funding and plant purchases needed going forward. So here we are in Q4 and I'm not holding my breath.

BUT, as of the June 2017 report they are on the cusp of breaking even and becoming cash positive which if they manage to achieve makes the current share price look ridiculously cheap. So the worst case scenario that I anticipate over the next few quarters are they abandon the attempt stay public and African Resources look to take it private or sell on asa takeover to another buyer. If that were to happen the buyout would be significantly above 1.2p per share IMO.

EDIT:
Corrected school boy error above where I double counted the Reserves.

[chipperfrd] 13/11/2017 19:10

Ditto!

I continue to buy-in i.a.w. my 'staircase' discipline. But it would be good to get some of my cash back with some free-carried shares as it seems a very long time since that last occurred!
Chip

[roguetreader] 13/11/2017 16:14

SG

Agreed re representation of value given the last RNS, but the trade volumes are negligible and have been since June. I'm not sure that the Market is doing anything here, I think it is just a matter of total disinterest due to the lack of any coherent management communications plan.

Anyway I bought a few more as the underline story is compelling at these prices based on the probabilities of it either going bust or progressing. I still think the latter is the more likely but not a certainty, therefore have added in a small way.
RT

[sloppyg] 13/11/2017 12:29

1.18p to buy has to represent value if one assumes that financing will not be an issue.

Market is starting to price in failure in that respect however.

Find it hard to believe though that the owners would allow it to fail having come this far.........

[chrisdgb] 09/10/2017 08:35

Gold price still highly supportive of project, let us hope soon for financing news...........

[its a worry] 12/9/2017 11:02

Happyholder put exactley the same post on Caspian on Sept 9th . . . . wonder what it is he's so happy about holding . . . .

[happyholder123] 09/9/2017 09:11

HNR -
TWO wells successfully drilled with abundant oil and gas in samples extracted!
Fracking and FIRST OIL next month!
Don't miss this train!

[chipperfrd] 06/9/2017 16:18

Hi RT,

Yes, they are the most UN-promotional PM miner I think I have ever come across!

Even when they appear to have a good case to make they just seem to miss pushing on an open door. Yet they release news after market hours and other such poor PR, so I really worry about who is advising them.
Chip

[roguetreader] 06/9/2017 16:02

Chip
Yes, they are making progress, all be it painfully slowly. They are obviously working to a very tight budget and keeping costs and expenditures under a very firm hand. However, all this will be worth the wait if they can manage the transition from Developer to 'profitable' Producer and keep debt to a minimum over the next couple of quarters. My biggest gripe to date is the lack of news and transparency, but I'll live with that IF they produce the goods.
RT

[chipperfrd] 06/9/2017 12:19

I note that the 6m results only reflected c. 3 months of usage of the new U/G equipment's. Also some 3 weeks of June were impacted by the plant being down for maintenance. So effectively, much of the 1H production would appear to be due to some 9 weeks of reasonable ore throughput.

Clearly, much of the processed ore is development ore which by definition tends to be lower in grade than stope ore due to the higher levels of sterile waste contained within it. This will obviously continue throughout mine-life because of the need to always be progressing new stope access. However, as stope production eventually increase the proportion of development ore should decline relative to the higher-grade stope ore.

I note that the gravity concentrator should be coming on stream during the remaining months of 2H, so recoveries should be somewhat higher going forward.

Cash flow should be positively impacted by the higher gold price. The average for 1H was US$1,237/oz whereas 2H has averaged US$1,268/oz so far in the 3rd quarter. Also, the final tranche of the EBRD loan gets paid off in October and means that future cashflows are then available for re-investment in the UG mine.

They still require new equipments for the UG mine. I would expect them to be able to fulfill their requirements via a loan package from an equipment supplier.

On their financials: progress has been painfully slow but their 6m figures do show improving metrics across the piste. Given the above points I would expect a further improvement over the 2nd half irrespective of fresh CAPEX availability, but clearly an equipment loan/lease agreement would help a lot.

Chip

[chrisdgb] 10/8/2017 08:32

Appreciate the comments, nice to see some volume rolling through..........

[chrisdgb] 09/8/2017 15:33

Gold miners up, Altyn down..................

[chrisdgb] 08/8/2017 08:27

I am still waiting and wondering...!!

[chrisdgb] 18/7/2017 08:33

I wonder when we will get news on the financing..??

[sloppyg] 28/6/2017 19:55

Agreed RT. Capex required has now moved to the top of their previous quoted range at $30m.

They do not want to be doing a significant fund raise at this share price given the dilution.

I actually eased out of a fair few when the spread closed and got closer to 2p a short while ago. Still retain a significant position however.

Belief in the long term story remains intact but history has taught me, rightly or wrongly, to keep powder dry and watch from the sidelines when material funding discussions are in progress.....

[roguetreader] 28/6/2017 17:59

On the face of it good news, progress seems to be being made. As ever total lack of any detail around quantifying the progress made, forecasts for production or what the financing of $30m is going to be used for in the next stage of development. Given the share price is towards the bottom of a range it has been cycling between for about a year or more, it could be a good place to top up further.Personally I'm going to wait to see how the financing pans out before pitching in further.

[chrisdgb] 28/6/2017 15:16

AGM Comments:

The project in relation to the Sekisovskoye mine is moving ahead as planned, with access to the portal completed and the processing plant operating with minor modifications, production is being extracted from ore body 5. Ore bodies 2 and 10 are currently being prepared for production to ensure a continuation of a reliable high grade ore feed into the processing plant. The initial capex requirement has been fulfilled but further capex and investment will be required in the forthcoming year as the underground mine is expanded.

In this regard, a great deal of work has been carried out in the background, with the Directors actively marketing the Company to obtain the necessary capital investment to take the project to the next stage of development. The actual level of funding is estimated based on current forecasted cash flows to be in the region of US$30m.

The Company is currently in discussion with a number of parties who have expressed an interest in financing the project. These parties have been supplied with detailed information and analysis in order to progress their appraisal of the project. We will of course advise shareholders as the discussions progress, and will of course move the investment forward on the most favourable terms that we can negotiate.

The principle assumptions underlying our modelling in relation to our current mine plan remain valid. The price of gold has remained stable and we do not anticipate any significant changes from the current price, however there are indications that the demand and price of gold may increase in the future, but even at current prices and our anticipated cash cost the project will generate a very good return.

In relation to Karasuyskoye area, the validation of the acquired geological data is continuing but the primary focus at the current time remains on Seki. Initial work undertaken at this site is encouraging, and I would remind shareholders this is a hidden gem for the future growth of the Company.

[chrisdgb] 21/6/2017 11:20

AGM a week today, hoping for some positive progress to help us push back towards 2p level.........